🇺🇸 🇺🇸 Monday, July 4th🇺🇸 🇺🇸
RU seems poised to flee Kherson, as evidenced by the sudden increase in looting
🇺🇸 I hope everyone is having a wonderful Fourth of July! Everything that this holiday represents is what fuels me to keep making these updates. Whether you celebrate with BBQ, fireworks, quiet contemplation, or even guarding your dog what’s hiding under a blanket while you play video games, I hope you are safe, and that your day is exquisite!
🇺🇦 The big shock news of the day: Putin won’t congratulate Biden on July 4
🇺🇦 A Ukrainian flag has been placed back on Snake Island
🇺🇦 Another Russian Ammo depot is destroyed, this time at Yakovlevka, Kharkiv Oblast
🇺🇦 Another Russian Ammo depot is destroyed, this time in Dibrivne, Kharkiv Oblast
🇺🇦 Destroyed RU military warehouses, destroyed ammo stockpiles, destroyed command posts, freed Snake Island...HIMARS have proven: US weapons are way better than anything RF has. Ukrainians have proven we can quickly learn and effectively control modern Western weapons.
🇺🇦 Head of UA Intelligence: War will end when UA has it’s 1991 borders
🇺🇦 UA women are flirting intelligence out of RU invaders and turning intel over to UA Security Services
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian army is ‘a kilometer away’ from the suburbs of Kherson
🇺🇦 The UA army Is within sniper range of Kherson
🇺🇦 With UA so close to Kherson, Russia is stepping up its looting. Russia *might* be preparing to leave Kherson. Pictured: RU looting washing machines from occupied Kherson.
🇺🇦 Winning the war is still dependent on UA getting more artillery. But getting artillery is dependent on logistics.
🇺🇦 Russia has taken the entirety of Luhansk
🇺🇦 FSB and Wagner are recruiting prisoners in Russia to fight in Donbas
🇺🇦 Finland and Sweden completed accession talks at NATO Headquarters in Brussels today. Both countries formally confirmed their willingness and ability to meet the political, legal and military obligations and commitments of NATO membership.
🇺🇦 After joining NATO, Sweden will support Ukraine's membership, Swedish Prime Minister Andersson said
🇺🇦 Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is urging U.S. to leave NATO to avoid war with Russia. Then again, she also bought Lockheed stock on Feb 22 so she’s probably just playing to her base.
🇺🇦 I’m doing this update outside, and I just destroyed the largest mosquito you’ve ever seen. And speaking of that, I’m posting this update early so I can go blow things up and eat burgers and drink some American lagers posing as craft beer!!!!!
🇺🇦 The days of updates once every 48 hours is coming, so just be prepared!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!