Friday, August 26
On Feb. 24, UA’s defense minister told Russia that Ukraine is ready to accept Russia’s surrender
🇺🇦 Pictured: $1.4 billion worth of Russian fixed wing aircraft have been visually confirmed as lost by Russia since Feb 24. This is high quality, and high confidence data from Oryx. Actual numbers are likely higher, these are simply the verified numbers
🇺🇦 Pictured: Charts show just how many Russians are dying compared to other modern wars. Note: these are conservative estimates. Other estimates are THREE times higher than this.
🇺🇦 China must be contemplating whether it was a good idea to base their designs off Russian tech right now.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian troops destroyed an ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Donetsk.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian troops destroyed an ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Kherson.
🇺🇦 Edit: Instead of going down the list, I’ll just say Ukraine troops have destroyed 50+ ammunition depots since receiving HIMARS
🇺🇦 Ukrainian troops had destroyed a Russian base at the Donbas hotel in Russian-occupied Kadiivka
🇺🇦 In Belgorod Oblast in Russia, an ammunition depot caught fire. Russia says it caught fire because of the sun. Locals evacuated
🇺🇦 Valery Zaluzhnyi, commander of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said that nearly 9,000 Ukrainian troops of died. So there’s UA’s number.
🇺🇦 The EU will discuss launching major training operation for Ukrainian forces. The European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the proposal will be discussed at a two-day meeting of EU defense ministers next week.
🇺🇦 Russia is holding sham trials for the Azovstal defenders. Ukraine is asking the UN to act against these trials.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Air Force is preparing for the transition to western equipment in 2023. Aviators expect the transition to western aircrafts such as F-15, F-16 or F-18 and surface-to-air missile systems (SAM). Ukraine’s Air Force has begun training.
🇺🇦 Zelensky: “Crimea is and was a part of Ukraine, and after its liberation it will become part of the EU”
🇺🇦 Russia announced the "adoption" of thousands of children deported from Mariupol
🇺🇦 Russia threatened parents in the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts with putting children into orphanages if they do not sign them up for Russian-seized schools.
🇺🇦 The US State Department advises U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine as Russia is stepping up efforts against civilians.
🇺🇦 Putin sees Germany as the ‘weak link’ in Europe and is stepping up pressure with energy. Divisions are starting to emerge in the political class
🇺🇦 Lithuania will purchase 37 kamikaze drones for Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Russia has received hundreds of Iranian drones.
🇺🇦 Yesterday (Aug 25), the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was disconnected from the Ukrainian grid as a result of Russian shelling.
🇺🇦 Today, one power unit of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was reconnected
🇺🇦 On Feb. 24, Russia asked Ukraine to surrender. UA’s defense minister responded that he is ready to accept capitulation from Russia.
🇺🇦 UA Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov received a call from his Belarusian counterpart, Viktor Khrenin, hours after Russia's full-scale invasion had begun. Reznikov said that the Belarusian minister said he was conveying a message from Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who demanded that Ukraine sign an act of capitulation.
🇺🇦 1.3 million people have been evacuated from Donetsk since Feb 24
🇺🇦 Russia is pulling all its fighter jets out of Crimea after a series of strikes on its military outposts there
🇺🇦 A conflict between groups from two Russian Spetznaz brigades and a Russian mercenary united reportedly turned into an armed fight when one Spetznaz unit sided with the PMC unit instead of the other Spetznaz unit.
ℹ️ Operations
🇺🇦 Russians are posting soldiers on Ukraine’s northern border in order to prevent them from moving all of their troops south
🇺🇦 Eyewitnesses report Russia moving heavy military equipment to Crimea.
🇺🇦 Train cars loaded with heavy military equipment were spotted by eyewitnesses at the Taman railway station in Russia, which is at the entrance of the Kerch Bridge leading to the annexed Crimea
🇺🇦 Russian forces are shelling Kharkiv
🇺🇦 Russian forces are shelling Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
🇺🇦 Russian forces shelled five districts in the Sumy Oblast
ℹ️ Arctic subplot
🇺🇦 Russia is building up military forces in the arctic.
🇺🇦 Washington Post: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Canada and warned about Russia’s new Arctic Command, as well as hundreds of its Arctic military sites, which include airfields and deep-water ports
🇺🇦 I don’t know if anyone remembers, but about 30 years ago, Russia went and planted a bunch of flags around the arctic rim in anticipation of the permafrost melting. I don’t recall any details from that news story, it was just in my head
ℹ️ Dugina subplot
🇺🇦 People with anonymous phone numbers had been following Dugina’s car prior to the explosion.
🇺🇦 It is assumed that the car was blown up remotely.
🇺🇦 Russia propaganda is blaming Azov for the assassination.
🇺🇦 An unknown Russian group called the National Republican Army has taken credit for the death. The NRA stated that its goal is to "overthrow" and "destroy Putin”. The group spoke through an ex-Russian lawmaker
🇺🇦 Opinion: All of the evidence I’ve read along with historical context have caused me to come to the opinion that this is an internal power struggle, rather than the other theories: an external attack, war resistance, or a false flag attack.
🇺🇦 The National Republican Army is threatening more deaths
ℹ️ Resistance subplot:
🇺🇦 The #2 collaborator in Kherson was blown up in car explosion. Assistant to the so-called "head" of the occupied Kherson region, Igor Telegin, was blown up in a car.
ℹ️ Mykolaiv side note
🇺🇦 On the first day of the invasion, Feb 24, Russia took Kherson. They set their eyes on Mykolaiv next. This is Ukraine’s ship-building center.
🇺🇦 On Feb 25, Major General Dmytro Marchenko was sent to his home region tasked with defending Mykolaiv. He has been in charge of the key city’s defense ever since.
🇺🇦 When he arrived there was no defensive posture. He quickly set up checkpoints and established trenches. Locals and soldiers worked together to dig trenches.
🇺🇦 As a result of stiff resistance and the timely Ukrainian military intervention, the city was kept under the Ukrainian flag.
🇺🇦 In July, Mykolaiv began being used as a Kherson counter-offensive launch point
ℹ️ T&A subplot:
🇺🇦 Two bare-chested female protesters interrupt Scholz’s speech, demanding embargo on Russian gas.
🇺🇦 Two women who shouted “Gas embargo now” during a public Q&A session held by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were quickly subdued and removed by security
🇺🇦 Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, has opposed a gas embargo against Russia.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
..."an ammunition depot caught fire. Russia says it caught fire because of the sun. ..."
That is what happens when you expose nighttime ammunition to the light of the sun. Just like a vampire.