Friday, December 15, 2023
Russia has lost 87% of their pre-war troops and a quarter of all pre-invasion military equipment. Ukraine is shifting to defense
ℹ️ Operations
🇺🇦 Zelensky announced that Ukraine is transitioning to defensive operations.
🇺🇦 NYTimes called this a crisis. Zelensky disagreed, countering that this is motivated by winter conditions.
🇺🇦 Both Russia and Ukrainian sources are describing winter conditions that are difficult and “extremely unfavorable”. It will be some time for the ground to freeze and allow for continued operations.
🇺🇦 Russian milbloggers are reporting that Russia has gone on the offensive near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
🇺🇦 Pictured: Ukrainian infantrymen soldiers travel on the Dnipro River on boats on September 14, 2023 in Kherson region, Ukraine.
ℹ️ General updates
🇺🇦 A new law in Russia requires individuals to surrender their passports. Individuals receiving notice had five days to surrender their passports. They are trying to prevent brain drain and working class outflows.
🇺🇦 Additionally, foreign passports will become invalid due to loss, expiration, personal data changes, or the owner’s demise.
🇺🇦 Additionally, law enforcement has the authority to seize any documents at the border
🇺🇦 A picture circulated of a Russian UAZ-452 off-road armored van with reactive armor all over its front side, including its windshield. This went viral because if the reactive armor was triggered, it would certainly destroy anyone in the front seats. (all of that said, I have low confidence that this is wide spread, and that the reactive armor was little more than egg crates)
🇺🇦 Moscow residents are besieged by heating problems, having yet to experience home heating since winter started due to a dwindling supply of heating oil.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is getting two minehunting ships from the U.K. To assist with Black Sea operations
🇺🇦 Russia is planing to expand further into the Arctic, claiming an expanded Arctic boundary. This is despite no country having a claim to the Arctic
🇺🇦 Ukraine Military Intelligence reportedly disrupted the Russian Tax Service, erased the entire database, and a full recovery is reportedly impossible. I am seeking secondary sourcing for this; I see a bunch of Europe/Ukrainian sites reporting on this, but nothing in western media. Institute for the Study of War is citing this same source, but it isn’t providing additional sourcing
🇺🇦 Cyber attacks have been significantly escalated throughout the entire conflict. There have been 4,000 cyber attacks against Ukraine recorded over the past 20 months
ℹ️ Russian losses
🇺🇦 Russia is still losing around 1,000 people per day
🇺🇦 The Ukraine military says that around 337,000 Russian soldiers have died since Feb 2022, with another million wounded. The US says that a total of 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. The difference, US officials say, is that Russia routinely undercounts its war dead and injured, which means that the number could in fact be closer to UA’s estimates.
🇺🇦 US Intelligence believes that Russia has lost 87% of their pre-war troops. By late November 2023, Russian ground forces had lost over a quarter of ALL pre-invasion military equipment.
🇺🇦 More data: out of 360,000 personnel, 315,000 were lost, along with 2,200 out of 3,5000 tanks, and 4,400 out of 13,600 infantry and armored carriers.
🇺🇦 The war in Ukraine has severely damaged Russia’s pre-war military, but Russia has somewhat recovered from these losses and is preparing for a prolonged war.
🇺🇦 On Dec 1, Putin issued a new presidential decree expanding the size of the country’s military by 170,000 soldiers, which will result in a total force of 1.32 million soldiers
ℹ️ Putin is counting on the West to cave on Ukraine
🇺🇦 US intelligence believes Russia’s current attacks in Ukraine are meant to reduce western support for Ukraine, not to achieve immediate goals
🇺🇦 Russia might be carrying out costly attacks during a difficult time for ground movement to coincide with Western discussions about ongoing support for Ukraine
🇺🇦 …although, based on past MO, I disagree with this assessment, believing instead that Russia military doctrine requires sending more and more resources until the enemy is spent.
🇺🇦 Last minute update: The senate has passed a $866 billion defense spending plan, supported by Pres. Biden, that includes funding for Ukraine and an annual pay raise for troops. This extends Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative through fiscal year 2027 and authorizes the full budget request of $300 million in 2024.
ℹ️ Gaza
🌐 Unrelated, I occasionally read Hamas/Israel OSINT and the interesting thing is how the data is so granular that one battle is covered with detail down to individual troop actions within a firefight
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 Every Russian death is a tragedy. I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom. Edit: but maybe not with Prigozhin? Edit: Nope, definitely not Prigozhin
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news.
#RazPutin targets his own to boost his political standing ahead of his failed March 2024 election. C=> https://www.patreon.com/posts/95566743 #GotDavidOblest?