Friday, December 16

HIMARS at the front, RU KIA is nearing 100k, Wagner HQ destroyed, and all about Patriot Missiles

🇺🇦 Ukraine has moved at least one HIMARS to the front line and is striking targets in Melitopol.

🇺🇦 One HIMARS struck a Russian barracks in Melitopol and destroyed two RU army companies.

🇺🇦 Russia has hit 95,000 KIA. This means 1 artillery, 1 armored vehicle, and 3 trucks for every 310 dead. It seems Russia is really sticking to a doctrine of completely unsupported human wave attacks

🇺🇦 Edit: I waited too long to post, and with nearly 700 troop deaths per day, they’ve blown past 95,000 KIA

🇺🇦 Russia will exceed 100,000 KIA before the new year. Edit: They will likely exceed this amount before Christmas. The might even exceed it this  week. 

🇺🇦 Russian forces have suffered an estimated 284,000 injuries. 

🇺🇦 This past Sunday, Russia lost 24 tanks in one day

🇺🇦 Author Owen Matthews spent time in Moscow and reported on the mood of the Russian people over the past 300 days. He said there is a bizarre sense that you have no idea whatsoever that you’re in the capital of a country that is fighting the biggest war of the 21st century

• Right up until the September 21 mobilization, the war was completely invisible, and deliberately so 

• During the first week of the war there was this little wave of public patriotism, which quickly disappeared.

• The mobilization took the population by surprise. 

• The current state of Russian people is there are essentially a small minority that are in despair, and for them the world has collapsed; they’ve run for the exists. This is about half a million people 

• The vast majority is either too poor or too rich to leave

• The predominant mood in the elite / upper middle class (gov-connected population) is in a mood of quiet despair or denial 

🇺🇦 The US Air Force wants to send long range strike drones to Ukraine. The Air Force has been trying to get rid of its old Reaper drones for a long time. This deal has not been finalized nor approved yet.

🇺🇦 General Atomics is in a hiring frenzy as they produce more of the above long range drones in an attempt to support Ukraine.

🇺🇦 A Wagner Group headquarters was blown up in occupied Kadiivka 

🇺🇦 Update: the more I read, the more this sounds like *the* Wagner Group headquarters…not *a* Wagner Group headquarters. 

🇺🇦 A KIA Russian soldier was found with a replica helmet. The warning label said it is a toy and not meant to protect from ballistics. 

🇺🇦 A video showing Russians unloading a tank from a train was spread around the internet. In this video, the tank fell off the train and rolled over into the snow. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense posted the video and asked Russia to be more careful with their future equipment.

🇺🇦 Kyiv says the counter offensive will resume once the ground freezes

🇺🇦 It seems like it's no longer possible to have a Ukrainian phone number verify a Twitter account/two-factor authentication. At the time of this writing, Ukraine is not on a list of countries.

🇺🇦 Russia appears to be training up 200,000 fresh troops for a renewed offensive on Kyiv, which may occur in the spring. This is according to Ukraine’s commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces.

🇺🇦 Russia’s Ministry of Defense has been posting videos of soldiers training.

🇺🇦 Various Ukrainian defense officials continue to assess that Putin maintains maximalist goals and seeks to compel Ukraine to enter negotiations and/or accept a ceasefire to advance Russian objectives. 

🇺🇦 Putin is using an ongoing campaign of massive missile strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure to coerce Ukraine into negotiating.

🇺🇦 Putin is still pursuing his maximalist goals of regaining control of Ukraine and securing major territorial concessions.

🇺🇦 There is a flu outbreak in the Kremlin. After Putin cancelled his annual press conference, some are speculating that he will bunker-quarantine in the Ural Mountains through the New Year

ℹ️ Palace gossip 

🇺🇦 European outlets are claiming that Putin will spend the winter with his lover, Alina Kabaeva, 39. The two are rumored to plan to stay at Putin’s luxury nuclear bunker in the Ural Mountains, located in Siberia. 

ℹ️ Patriot missile subplot

🇺🇦 Plans are being finalized for the US to send Patriot missile systems to Ukraine

🇺🇦 While the Biden admin will likely approve delivery this week, actual use is months away. Retired General Mark Hertling: “Unless there's been secret training going on for months, 'approval' doesn't mean those systems will be on the battlefield immediately. Patriots require months of operator & maintenance training"

🇺🇦 Of all missile defense systems that have ever been designed in any country, the Patriot missile defense system is the most effective in the world.

🇺🇦 (…actually, technically the Patriot is the second most effective, having recently been beaten by Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), which has an effectiveness of 100%….but has only had a few engagements)

🇺🇦 The Patriot missile defense system is so effective because the missile fires without a lock, thereby depriving the pilot of warning and the ability to make any evasive maneuvers.

🇺🇦 In fact, most 4th and 5th gen fighter aircraft are only notified half a second before the Patriot hits.

🇺🇦 This is why every single pilot that has been engaged by a US Patriot missile system has not survived

🇺🇦 By comparison, it is very easy to shake an Iraqi, and other country’s, missile defense systems, but once a Patriot gets a hold of you, there’s nothing you can do

🇺🇦 The way you employ a Patriot is vastly different based on what your threat looks like. There are 3 primary interceptor configurations (PAC 2, PAC 3, PAC 3 MSC)

🇺🇦 In summation, it takes a long time to become tactically competent on the Patriot missile, and how to deploy it, how to utilize it, how to tailor it for the particular threat….but once you’ve been trained, you’ve been trained up on the most effective missile defense system ever designed

ℹ️ Kazakhstan subplot

🇺🇦 Kazakhstan is reinforcing their own border with Russia.

🇺🇦 Kazakhstan is now actively strengthening ties with two of Russia's main Eurasian competitors, China and Turkey.

📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first. 

📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.

📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…”  in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.

📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns 

⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale

⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!

⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course. 

⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly 

⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time. 

⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. 

🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!

🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom