ℹ️ Russia’s new offensive main story line
🇺🇦 Throughout February, Russia has been preparing thousands of tanks and armored vehicles and hundreds of fighter jets for a renewed offensive: 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 multiple-rocket-launch systems, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters ready for a new offensive operation in Ukraine. This is according to a Ukrainian military official, speaking on condition of anonymity
🇺🇦 United Kingdom’s Defense Secretary said that 97% of “the whole Russian army” is deployed in Ukraine.
🇺🇦Russia’s widely anticipated new offensive in Ukraine has begun…however, it has been marked by embarrassing failures…
🇺🇦 Feb 6->Feb 7 were the deadliest 24 hours for Russia so far, in which 1,030 Russian soldiers were killed.
🇺🇦 Feb 9 update: this KIA rate has continued for three days. Ukraine claims that more than 3,000 Russian troops killed in the last three days, according to Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Feb 10+ Update: It appears this number is sustaining. Russia is loosing nearly 1,000 Russian troops every day
🇺🇦 Russia lost an entire ‘elite’ brigade of 5,000 troops in one battle in Vuhledar, Donetsk. The 155th brigade—which was responsible for the atrocities at Bucha—has been restaffed three times before being destroy (again). This happened around Feb 12
🇺🇦 Western officials are debating if this is the new offensive that everyone was expecting. The evidence is that the fighting has dramatically increased in the past few days. Fighting has increased specifically around Vuhledar and Bakhmut, two cities roughly 100 miles apart in the region of eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas.
🇺🇦 A senior US diplomat is underwhelmed by the new advance, saying, “If this is it, it is very pathetic”. (Via US State Dept press briefing)
🇺🇦 Victoria Nuland, the senior US diplomat mentioned above, also said that the US supports Ukraine attacking military targets in Crimea
🇺🇦 Putin has sent his press staff to go to every major network and tell Russians to clear their schedules on Feb 21st because Putin is giving a big speech
🇺🇦 I thought I had more time to give an update because the attack was expected to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the full scale invasion on February 24. We’ll see what happens on Putin’s Feb 21st speech.
🇺🇦 Pictured: Russian tank, Feb 12, 2023
ℹ️ Regular updates
🇺🇦 Poland warns of a disinformation campaign against Ukrainian refugees. Fabricated leaflets are being distributed among the population of the country, claiming that the Polish authorities are allegedly collecting data on Ukrainians for mobilization.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reports that Russian companies—and by extension political players—such as Gazprom, are creating their own private armies, following the example of Wagner PMC
🇺🇦 Four Russian units—at the battalion or company level—are refusing to fight. This is coming from Russian sources, as well as pro-Russian propagandists trying to figure out what is going on
🇺🇦 …these four Russian units are all new mobilized units that were supposed to be doing territorial guard suits…Eg, in the rear with the gear. But then they were transferred to the Donetsk People’s Republic, People’s Militia (1st Army Corps). All four units claim that their new commanders took away all of their heavy equipment, weapons, and sleeping bags. These soldiers were then reassigned to being front line infantry (“shock troops”). Some were even assigned to be attached to the Wagner group, who threatened them with terrible things if they didn’t do meat wave activities (see “sledgehammer” later in this update). When they complained, they were told they’re no longer part of the Russian military, but now part of the Donetsk People’s Republic militia. This is all coming from Russian sources
🇺🇦 Poland will close its border with Belarus until further notice (Feb 9 reporting date)
🇺🇦 Institute for the Study of War says Putin is not ready for a protracted war nor a nuclear strike
🇺🇦 ISW: Putin values his domestic status quo and tries to avoid risky policies to achieve his own goals.
🇺🇦 ISW:Putin also continues to demonstrate that he remains a calculating man, paying considerable attention to eliminating risks, even though his perception of the situation he faces diverges from reality.
🇺🇦 Elon Musk says SpaceX restricted internet in Ukraine to prevent escalation ‘that may lead to WW3’…‘We’re trying hard to do the right thing’ he said.
🇺🇦 ….Musk is the same guy who said Russia wanted peace but the US sabotaged peace.
🇺🇦 ….Musk is also the guy who responded to Dmitry Medvedev predicting western collapse with “epic thread!”
🇺🇦 Moldova says Russia is planning a coup
🇺🇦 A Russian showed up at the United States, southern border, seeking asylum, claiming to have top-secret information about Russia’s advanced bombers. The US has determined this source credible and has turned him over to the FBI. Releasing this information publicly is a strategic message to the rest of the world that America will welcome you if you give us Russian secrets.
🇺🇦 Leading Republicans in Congress are launching an early and aggressive effort to make the case for why the U.S. should continue supporting Ukraine. Their largest challenge are the few republicans opposed to defeating Russia (mentioned in a prior update). Also, as mentioned in an earlier update, the few democrats in congress who were vocal about not supporting Ukraine have mostly quieted down after reading the room.
🇺🇦 Putin is relaxing some conscription requirements in order to recruit more people. For example, fathers of three+ children can now be conscripted
ℹ️ US Embassy subplot
🇺🇦 US Embassy in Russia issues a Do Not Travel alert and leave immediately alert. “Do not travel to Russia due to the unpredictable consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. US citizens who live or travel in Russia must immediately leave the country”
🇺🇦 US Embassy in Russia: U.S. citizens should note that U.S. credit and debit cards no longer work in Russia
🇺🇦 US Embassy in Russia: Russian security services may fail to notify the U.S. Embassy of the detention of a U.S. citizen and unreasonably delay U.S. consular assistance. Russian security services are increasing the arbitrary enforcement of local laws to target foreign and international organizations they consider “undesirable.”
🇺🇦 US Embassy in Russia: “Russian security services have arrested U.S. citizens on spurious charges, singled out U.S. citizens in Russia for detention and harassment, denied them fair and transparent treatment, and convicted them in secret trials or without presenting credible evidence. Furthermore, Russian authorities arbitrarily enforce local laws against U.S. citizen religious workers and have opened questionable criminal investigations against U.S. citizens engaged in religious activity. U.S. citizens should avoid travel to Russia to perform work for or volunteer with non-governmental organizations or religious organizations.”
ℹ️ Fur coat subplot
🇺🇦 In the town of Makiivka, women whose husbands died fighting for Russia in the war in Ukraine, were given fur coats as compensation. "We unexpectedly received such help today. We are very grateful to you. Families of the killed soldiers gathered here. Truly, we thank you from the heart!" one woman said.
🇺🇦 A video clip widely viewed on Russian social media shows a group of women holding up the garments in the town of Makiivka, in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region of Ukraine. "Thank you so much from the bottom of our hearts…for taking care of us," said one woman before the group said "thank you" in unison.
🇺🇦 Feb 9: Fur coats purportedly given to widows of soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine as compensation for their deaths were taken back after the women were filmed expressing their gratitude for them
ℹ️ Wagner
🇺🇦 Wagner group head Prigozhin said on his company’s Telegram channel: “We have completely discontinued the recruitment of prisoners into Wagner PMC. Those who work for us now are fulfilling all their obligations.”
🇺🇦 The prisoner advocacy group Russia Behind Bars believes that the Russian Ministry of Defense is now in charge of any further recruitment in Russia’s prisons. It is possible that the Wagner way of war – despite the bombast of Prigozhin – no longer fits in with the Defense Ministry’s plans. This might indicate a growing division between Wagner and the Kremlin (this last sentence is speculation)
🇺🇦 The Institute for the Study of War said “the possible decline in the Wagner Group’s prison recruitment campaign may be an indicator that the Russian Ministry of Defense intends to sideline the Wagner Group in future offensive operations”
🇺🇦 Wagner Group executed a deserter with a sledgehammer
🇺🇦 Prigozhin publicly complained that someone was sabotaging ammunition. At the same time, news reported that a senior Russian official, Marina Yankina, who is responsible for financial supply of Russian Western Military District, committed suicide by falling out of a 16th floor window in St. Petersburg. These incidents are correlated, but don’t necessarily have a causal relationship
ℹ️ Economy subplot
🇺🇦 Russia's Finance Ministry said Monday the country's budget deficit surged to 1.76 trillion rubles ($24.8 billion) in January. This is Russia's largest budget deficit for the first month of the year since 1998
🇺🇦 Russian tax revenues from oil and gas plunged 46 percent in January 2023 compared with a year ago, while there was a 59 percent increase in federal budget expenditures due to the ongoing war
🇺🇦 Export controls have slowly reduced the supply of materials that the Kremlin needs to rebuild its war machine, according to Alan Estevez, Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security. While Moscow is working hard to evade controls, only good that are being smuggled in are being used to replace what it needs. E.g., Russia can’t produce war materials at scale.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom