Friday, February 24 - One year later
The one year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine
🇺🇦 On February 24, 2022, as the full scale invasion began, and 190,000 Russian troops crossed the border, Kyiv Independent journalist, Daryna was in a group chat with her family. Her father said, “Son, goggle the recipe of a Molotov cocktail for me, please”, and her brother sent the recipe.
🇺🇦 Since the beginning of the full scale invasion, Russia has lost 146,820 troops, and is well over 200,000 in casualties. Every Russian loss is a tragedy. I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom.
🇺🇦 The average lifespan on the frontline in Bakhmut is "four hours," according to an American fighting side by side with the Ukrainian army against Russian forces in the Donbas.
🇺🇦 Prigozhin made a public plea for help due to lack of ammunition. It is possible that Russia has limited Wagner’s ammunition supply in an attempt to control them. (Or, Russia simply doesn’t have the supplies to send them)
🇺🇦 Wagner has no reserves in Bakhmut. If Ukraine were able to form a major offensive, Wagner/Russia has no defensive lines.
🇺🇦 Members of the closest circle around Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin are cooperating with Ukraine’s intelligence services, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Kyrylo Budanov has said.
🇺🇦 …”Since the situation in the Russian Federation is actually getting worse every day, it's getting easier every day to find people willing to cooperate," the head of Ukrainian intelligence said.
🇺🇦 …If true, that’s some sloppy OPSEC
🇺🇦 …If false, then it’s done to cause division and paranoia within Putin’s inner circle.
ℹ️ Bush -> Obama transition subplot
🇺🇦 In 2009, during the presidential transition, George W Bush suggested that Russia might attack Ukraine. This was stated in Bush’s declassified memos, which he handed over to his successor, Barack Obama, before leaving office in 2009.
🇺🇦 “Watch out for Russia; it covets the territory of its neighbor Ukraine,” the memo said. “Russian attempts to challenge the territorial integrity of Ukraine, particularly in Crimea, which is 59 percent ethnically Russian and is home to the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet, must be prevented”
🇺🇦 Bush also warned that Russia will exploit Europe’s dependence on Russian energy and use political means “to drive wedges between the United States and Europe.”
ℹ️ The first day of the war
🇺🇦 Contrary to many media reports at the time, the 35 mile-long (56 km) column was in fact 10 separate Russian tactical battalion units
🇺🇦 The Russian army also attacked Ukraine in the east and south, but the mission for these 10 units was specific - enter Ukraine from Belarus, overthrow Ukraine's capital city and remove the government. In military terms: a decapitation attack.
🇺🇦 A captured Russian document later revealed a timetable for the plan. After the first battalion crossed into Ukraine at 04:00 am on 24 February, their orders were to advance straight to Kyiv arriving by 14:55.
🇺🇦 Several of the battalions were to advance to Hostomel, just north of Kyiv, to back up the troops who'd been airlifted in to secure the airport. The rest were to head straight into the centre of Kyiv.
🇺🇦 The assault heavily relied on two elements - secrecy and speed. By keeping plans about an attack on the capital under wraps, Russian soldiers could outnumber the Ukrainian forces by 12 to 1 in the north of Kyiv.
🇺🇦 Putin's secrecy came at a cost. So successful was his deception, most of his commanders did not receive their orders until 24 hours before the invasion. This left them vulnerable. They lacked food, fuel and maps. They were without proper communication tools. They had insufficient ammunition. They were even ill-prepared for the winter weather.
🇺🇦 Russian vehicles thus entered Ukraine, ill equipped, including the wrong tires. They drove straight into the mud, surrounded by snow. Unable to progress, the Russian vehicles needed to divert to paved roads in order to avoid soft ground, forcing thousands to group into a single column. With limited communication between the battalions, they almost immediately converged into one almighty traffic jam.
🇺🇦 By the time the column had grown as long as 35 miles (56 km) it included up to 1,000 tanks, 2,400 mechanised infantry vehicles and 10,000 personnel, as well as dozens of supply trucks carrying food, fuel, oil and ammunition.
🇺🇦 Pictured: the Russian convoy’s path
🇺🇦 Russians made it to Bucha, just outside of Kyiv. But under pressure from Ukrainian air strikes and artillery, the Russian convoy was finally brought to a standstill just outside of Kyiv's city boundary.
🇺🇦 Two of the largest remaining battalions were defeated close to Hostomel airport. Another 370 tented army trucks, seemingly abandoned in Zdvizhivka village, were destroyed by artillery.
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian military kept on pushing them back until 19 March, after which the Russians began to retreat from Kyiv Oblast.
🇺🇦 But back on February 24, 2022 as the first tanks started rolling into Ukraine, some OSINT specialist in America started getting flooded with data, and decided to post updates to his Facebook page. Thank you for reading for the past year. Your engagement is why Kyiv still stands.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom