🇺🇦 Pictured: As it stands, Ukraine has taken back half of its territory since peak invasion. Peak invasion was ten days after the war, on March 6th. After March 6th, Russian gains were insignificant
🇺🇦 Hacked Ukrainian radio stations are broadcasting fake information about Zelensky’s health
🇺🇦 Russia resumed the flow of natural gas through the Nord Stream pipeline via the Baltic Sea to the EU after a planned 10-day outage. I didn’t report heavily on this, but there was this whole sub plot about whether Russia would turn it back on or not.
🇺🇦 That said, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the supply of energy is unreliable because Russia has limited the pipeline's capacity to 40%.
🇺🇦 The above is being interpreted (by critics) as blackmail and intimidation towards the EU.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian troops repelled several Russian offensives in the Donetsk Oblast.
🇺🇦 UA forces conducted limited fighting north of Kharkiv City.
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted localized ground attacks near the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.
🌾Ukraine and Russia signed separate agreements with Turkey, and the UN on grain passage through Black Sea.
🌾“The agreements envision the use of three Ukrainian ports - Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne - to export grain under the supervision of Ukraine, the UN, and Turkey. The agreement doesn't envision a Russian presence in these ports nor those it allows Russia to escort Ukrainian grain out of the country.” (Via Kyiv Independent)
🌾 Trudeau has already come out saying he has no faith Russia will honor this agreement
🇺🇦 Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov has created a new battalion, but at the moment it will not be deployed to Ukraine, and will remain in Chechnya.
🇺🇦 Head of the DNR signed a cooperation agreement with the head of the occupied Kharkiv region, signaling that the Kremlin intends to integrate Kharkiv Oblast into the Russian Federation.
🇺🇦 I saw a video today of a Jewish person and a Muslim person in the same trench. The muslim said: ’You’ve never seen anything like this..a muslim mujahideen, and a Tzahal serviceman (Israeli Defense Force) f-ing hiding both in one trench. Imagine how much the Russians have pissed off the world that muslims and jews are teaming up to kill these condoms.’ Then the cluster munitions came and the two started talking war. Then the explosions started and the Muslim started praying, and the Jewish person started praying in their own languages. Then they ended the video, both alive and well.
🇺🇦 Regarding the bad state of Russian equipment… Russia fired 20 rockets at Zaporizhzhia from a Grad system, but most of them landed in the river. "The loud explosions that were heard in the regional center this evening are the result of an enemy attack from the Grad systems. According to preliminary information, the invaders fired about 20 rockets, most of which drowned in the Dnipro River near the villages of Maloyekaterynivka and Kanivske”
🇺🇦 The US is sending 580 Phoenix Ghost loitering munition drones to UA. These are the drones the Air Force built specifically for UA fighting RU.
🇺🇦 The US is sending 36,000 artillery rounds to UA
🇺🇦 Two ratings agencies (Moody’s and Fitch) states Belarus has defaulted on their debt. This is due to sanctions due to helping Russia.
🇺🇦 Zelensky stated that Ukrainian deaths are declining on the front. It is down to 30 per day, with 250 wounded.
🇺🇦 Zelensky says there will be no ceasefire without recovering land lost to Russia
🇺🇦 In France, the Russian propaganda agency Sputink has filed for bankruptcy due to sanctions and has entered proceedings for liquidation.
🇺🇦 To everyone who complained that I called the A10 an F18 Strike Eagle….it’s like the famous Avengers quote: “Use the Force, Harry” - Gandalf
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!