Friday, July 29
Russia shelled Ukrainian POWs, then allegedly planted the same HIMARS debris they bragged about collecting days ago
🇺🇦 Russia shelled a barracks in Olenivka containing Ukrainian POWs, and 50 Ukrainians were killed and 130+ were injured
🇺🇦 UA intelligence says that Wagner Group is behind the above attack.
🇺🇦 Russia is blaming Ukraine for this attack. The barracks was separate from the Russian area, and no Russian guards were injured.
🇺🇦 Russian resources are heavily pushing the narrative that Ukraine bombed their own POWs.
🇺🇦 Russia has allegedly placed HIMARS debris at the target site to push this narrative
🇺🇦 Pictured: Coincidentally, Russia posted a few days ago on telegram that they’re collecting HIMARS debris (the purpose at the time was a flex that they were shooting down HIMARS rockets. Note, the picture evidence plainly shows that the HIMARS rockets were not shot down, just unexploded).
🇺🇦 Other Russian resources are threatening to kill more POWs.
🇺🇦 The International Committee of the Red Cross is seeking access to the Olenivka site.
🇺🇦 Russia is torturing Ukrainian POWs. While we could have assumed so, today there was was a big subplot surrounding a specific torture event. I don’t want to go into it, but a lot of effort is going into finding the perpetrators. In general, I’ve read more reporting of torture occurring.
🇺🇦 Ukraine also has Russian POWs. I’ve read a bunch of realistic—and sometimes negative—reporting of Russian POWs in Ukrainian captivity and it all describes Russian POWs being kept in the best possible conditions for an impoverished country that’s trying to keep their enemies alive…it’s not wonderful by any means, but I haven’t seen any accounts of mistreatment, even by 3rd party reports. For example…Russian POWs are being kept 4 to a room, bad bathroom situation…but they’re not torture conditions. I don’t follow this thread too closely, so I’m open to reading more if someone sends me reporting that disagrees with the above.
🇺🇦 Russia continues to use US groups to spread Russian and anti-west propaganda. See the boiler plate at the end of these posts for the most common types of Russian propaganda.
🇺🇦 Specifically, a Russian has been charged with using US groups to spread propaganda. A Russian operative under the supervision of one of the Kremlin's main intelligence services has been charged with recruiting political groups in the United States to advance pro-Russia propaganda, including during the invasion of Ukraine, the Justice Department said today.
🇺🇦 Additional reporting suggests the west is doing better at fighting Russian propaganda and cyber efforts.
🇺🇦 Russia’s population decline has hit a record rate. Russia’s population shrank by a record average of 86,000 people a month between January and May. This is according to Russia’s state statistics agency, Rosstat. This is even worse than post-Soviet collapse. This number has doubled since 2021 and nearly tripled since 2020
🇺🇦 Russia is giving the Wagner group similar duties as frontline soldiers.
🇺🇦 Newsweek: Russia is shelling already-occupied areas to cover warcrimes.
🇺🇦 Latvia is requiring Russians crossing the border to sign a document condemning Russia’s war in an attempt to root out national security threats.
🇺🇦 Poll: 81% of Ukrainians in favor of EU membership, 71% support joining NATO.
Economics:
🇺🇦 Russia’s car industry has fallen by 96.7%, according to published Russian state statistics
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s National Bank will hide exchange rates as Ukraine’s currency tumbles 25% in value.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s unemployment has hit 35%
🇺🇦 UA inflation will hit 30% in 2022
🇺🇦 Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin's war effort in Ukraine
🇺🇦 Ukraine has received $13 billion in financial assistance since the beginning of the war.
🇺🇦 Ukraine states it is ready to continue exporting grain
Operations:
🇺🇦 Russian forces shelled Kharkiv
🇺🇦 Ground fighting continued north of Kharkiv City with no significant change in control of terrain.
🇺🇦 Operational Command “South” reports that Ukraine’s military killed 105 Russian troops and destroyed seven T-62 and -72 tanks, a howitzer, two self-propelled artillery, 17 armored and military vehicles, and two ammunition depots.
🇺🇦 UA Armed Forces destroyed a Russian reconnaissance group near Sloviansk.
🇺🇦 Russians continue to target civilians in Mykolaiv with cluster bombs, killing 5, wounding 7
🇺🇦 Russian forces a limited ground assault in Kherson Oblast along points of contact, and Ukraine replied these attacks.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian military infrastructure on the Southern Axis.
🇺🇦 “Russian regional outlets reported the recruitment and establishment of an additional volunteer battalion in the Republic of Buryatia and the formation of a reserve battalion in Novosibirsk.” - Institute for the Study of War
🇺🇦 Members of Putin’s United Russia party traveled to occupied Ukrainian territories to promote an organization called “We Are Together with Russia,” in an attempt to present the façade of a “grassroots” call for the Russian annexation of occupied Ukraine and to prepare for falsified annexation referenda.
🇺🇦 The possibility of a Ukrainian counteroffensive into occupied Kherson may be disrupting Russian attempts to prepare for annexation referenda and to force Kherson civilians to register for Russian passports.
🇺🇦 Occupation officials also continued to restrict usage of Ukrainian currency and are attempting to force the rubleization of occupied areas but may have limited access to rubles in cash.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🥴 I bought 5 Mega Million tickets and none of them had any of the winning numbers on them