Friday, June 24
Ukraine is retreating from Severondonetsk. HIMARS systems officially go into use
🇺🇦 Video: The first use of US HIMARS systems against Russian targets
🇺🇦 Ukraine is pulling out Severondonetsk
🇺🇦 ‘90%’ of Severondonetsk building and infrastructure is destroyed
🇺🇦 Videos from inside Severondonetsk fighting shows all-consuming infernos and artillery bombardment that is so consistent and concentrated that the sound of peak explosion is stretched for minutes
🇺🇦 Severondonetsk does not offer Russia any strategic advantage. It’s all symbolic and meant for propaganda
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces will likely maintain their defenses around Lysychansk and continue to exhaust Russian troops after the fall of Severodonetsk.
🇺🇦 Guys, spelling Severodonetsk is a gamble every time
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations west of Izyum and north of Slovyansk. Russian forces will likely prioritize encircling Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk. They will then resume a full-scale offensive operation on Slovyansk.
🇺🇦 Intelligence suggests Russia is planning an attack in Mayzr, Belarus to compel Belarus to fight for Russia
🇺🇦 The above intelligence suggests Russian sabotage groups and mercenaries arrived in Mozyr, Belarus, to detonate apartment buildings and civilian infrastructure around the city
🇺🇦 UA is massively outgunned. Russia has more artillery than almost every country in the entire world. Due to this, plus the short logistic legs, Russia simply outguns UA.
🇺🇦 America is aware of this, but there’s a specific calculus that the west uses to get UA ammunition, and it’s based on the number of functioning artillery as well as logistics.
🇺🇦 Zelensky says he wants x number of rounds, but it’s simply not possible to execute. Even if the west just dumped the number of rounds on Ukraine, they’d have to store it in a depot, and it would be blown up immediately (just like UA is doing to Russia)
🇺🇦 The US is sending yet another arms package to UA. I won’t list it all here, but it includes 36,000 artillery rounds (which isn’t enough, but it’s sorta the best amount for aiding UA)
🇺🇦 The Kremlin has condemned EU for granting UA candidacy status, saying it is a move to contain RU geopolitically and to prepare to go to war with Russia.
🇺🇦 Guess what, the Kremlin is 100% right. That’s exactly what the west is doing. The west is coalescing around a union to defend itself from Russian aggression. We’ve seen what Russia does in Georgia, Moldova, Syria, Ukraine….you remember the list from earlier this week. So yes, the Kremlin is right.
🇺🇦 Moscow’s foreign ministry is blaming the US for Lithuania banning transit Kaliningrad. This is such a stupid update, thanks Sergey for wasting my time
🇺🇦 Related to the above, the US isn’t compelled to speak with Russia or negotiate about anything, and this appears to bother Russia to no end.
🇺🇦 US military has a new multimillion air surveillance radar that Northup Grumman developed, and it’s touted as a revolutionary jump in digital technology (“next generation super radar”), designed to detect next-generation threats such as hypersonic missiles, UAS, and 5th generation aircraft.
🇺🇦 As an aside, when the US creates a technology, it also creates a means of defeating it, because it can reverse engineer its own stuff.
🇺🇦 A retired Russian security officer who was once tasked with carrying President Vladimir Putin's nuclear briefcase was found shot in his home on Monday. This is the latest in a long series of people in Putin’s inner circle who have mysteriously died.
🇺🇦 Countries in Russia’s sphere of influence, such as Kazakhstan, are putting distance between themselves and Russia. Kazakhstan said they don’t recognize Donetsk as an independent country, and Russia got all upset and said something about Kazakhstan would be next. I’m not really following this thread any more than this.
🇺🇦 The Russian air force is struggling to support the offensive. UA intelligence interrogated a downed pilot and it turned out to be a contractor for the Wagner Group rather than a member of the Russian military, due to Russia not having enough pilots.
🇺🇸 There are other major news stories going on today, and I won’t comment on them, because people better than me are commenting on them. I’ll handle this problem, you handle the problems you can handle, and we’ll all meet in the middle
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!