Friday, June 3

Day 100 of Russia’s three-day war

🇺🇦 Day 100 of Russia’s three-day war

🇺🇦 Guys I thought this war was going to last one week, and that’s the time commitment I thought I was agreeing to….and here we are 100 days later. Russia is so inconsiderate of my time!

🇺🇦 I saw a quote that Ukraine won the war on day one. That was the day they decided not to surrender, and that caused a cascading series of events that led to where we are today, with the world’s most rag-tag group of defenders taking down “the world’s second most powerful military”

🇺🇦 “The world’s second most powerful military” is in quotes because it’s not

🇺🇦 Day 100: 31,000 RU troop deaths, 1,367 tank losses, 210 planes shot down, 121 cruise missiles shot down, 175 helicopters shot down, 2,329 light vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed

🇺🇦 US intelligence has reportedly produced a comprehensive report on Putin’s health’s which states Putin underwing treatment in April for advanced cancer

🇺🇦 The above assessment reportedly confirms that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March

🇺🇦 The CIA and foreign intelligence services are picking up consistent stories of discord at the top of Russia’s national security ministries, as well as the desire on the part of Russian diplomats to defect to the west.

🇺🇦 Along with this report comes the warning that we shouldn't let waiting for Putin’s death drive proactive actions on our part

🇺🇦 Russian military leadership continues to experience complications with sufficient force generation and maintaining the morale of mobilized personnel. 

🇺🇦 Russia continues forced mobilization in occupied areas, which of course is not generating meaningful combat power and is exacerbating low morale and poor discipline in Russian and proxy units. 

🇺🇦 The 113th Regiment (from occupied DNR) posted a video appeal to Putin wherein forcibly-mobilized soldiers complain they have spent the entire war on the frontline in Kherson without food or medicine, and that mobilization committees did not conduct requisite medical screenings and admitted individuals whose medical conditions should have disqualified them from service.

🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate released an intercepted phone conversation where DNR soldiers complained that individuals were forced into service and that mobilized units are experiencing mass drunkenness and general disorder

🇺🇦 TIL: “Drunkenness” has two n’s.

🇺🇦 The European Commission’s president said that Ukraine must meet all of the standards necessary for ascension to the EU (things like anti-corruption standards, accepting certain laws, going to the euro, etc). She also said that helping Ukraine ascend to the EU is not a burden, but a historic responsibility.

🇺🇦 The Kremlin continues to pursue inconsistent occupational measures in southern Ukraine, indicating both widespread Ukrainian resistance and likely Kremlin indecision on how to integrate occupied territory.

🇺🇦 Ukrainian counteroffensives in northwestern Kherson Oblast pushed Russian forces to the eastern bank of the Inhulets River and will likely continue to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication

🇺🇦 Russian forces continued assaults against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in order to claim full control of Luhansk Oblast.

🇺🇦 It appears that UA’s withdrawal from Severodonetsk wasn’t just pragmatic, it was tactical. When UA left, Russia moved in and declared victory, and UA started their counter offensive, which caused massive losses on the RU side. I’m waiting for more official word on this counter attack.

📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first. 

📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.

📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.

⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course. 

⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly 

⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time. 

⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…

⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!