Friday, May 13
Heavy fighting continues across the Siverskyi Donets River, and Russia has lost 100% of its tanks initially designated for the war.
🇺🇦 Pictured: This satellite image shows large plumes of smoke rising above the Siverskyi Donets river on May 12 near Bilohorivka, Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Pictured: old news by now, but this is Russian military concentrations, based on soldier SIM cards connecting to Ukraine cell towers #opsec
🇺🇦 And speaking of beclowning, Russia has placed new targets on Snake Island, including more air defense vehicles, landing craft, and a barge. It’s like the time they took that airport 8 or 9 times, and kept getting blown up in the exact same spot. At this point, Ukraine is camping them. RU should file a complaint to the GMs for griefing
🇺🇦 Back to the SIM cards…What sparks my curiosity are those 2-3 people far away from the main concentrations….in the far south west or far north. Did they get left behind and are now trying to blend in? Are they sappers? Are they abandoned cell phones?
🇺🇦 Russia has started trying to build a THIRD bridge across the Siverskyi Donets River. Heavy fighting continues. This is ongoing, and most headlines (including this one) are at risk of being inaccurate due to an ever-evolving situation
🇺🇦 Once again, Russia narrowed the scope of their intent. Russian forces seem to be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. However…
🇺🇦 It is unclear if Russian forces can encircle, let alone capture, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk even if they focus their efforts on that much-reduced objective. Russian offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war, and these areas are unlikely to be different.
🇺🇦 …I mean, they’ve lost 100% of the tanks they originally committed to this war, so I don’t think they’ve learned anything at this point. (..and have had to bring in new tanks)
🇺🇦 The remaining RU forces in the Kharkiv campaign have diverted their artillery to stopping Ukrainian advances. Like…Russia is the defender in their invasion.
🇺🇦 The rest of the RU forces from the Kharkiv campaign have have been sent toward Rubizhne and Severodonetsk
🇺🇦 The Makarov is still afloat. (Sorry JB)
🇺🇦 The logistics ship Vsevolod Bobrov “caught fire” after being hit by Ukrainian forces near Snake Island. Thanks to the people who messaged me the moment this happened!
🇺🇦 Yesterday it was brought to my attention that a country cannot going NATO if it has unsolved territorial disputes. This is perhaps one reason that motivated Russia into invading Georgia and Ukraine. Now they can’t apply for NATO membership.
Annexation
🇺🇦 Ukraine and its Western partners likely have a narrow window of opportunity to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive into occupied Ukrainian territory.
🇺🇦 Once Russia annexes land, they will likely move in nuclear deterrents and the land will be difficult to get back. This means Ukrainian and Western national interests require urgent and immigrate Ukrainian counteroffensives.
🇺🇦 This has been discussed everywhere but I never made a bullet point out of it: There’s a good chance Putin doesn’t know how badly Russia is doing. Putin’s timeline for annexation is likely contingent on the extent to which he understands how poorly his military is doing. His military has deteriorated to just an echo of the image it sought to propagate.
🇺🇦 Note: It is my opinion that Russia doesn’t have adequate nuclear deterrents, but that’s not a fact, so UA+west still has limited time.
🇺🇦 Update: Last night, Russia placed new targets on Snake Island. By the time I woke up, those targets on Snake Island had been destroyed.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
There is no way that Psycho Putin can not know how badly the Orc army is doing.