Friday, May 27
Posturing shows that the near future is largely going to be a defensive fight on Russia’s part
🇺🇦 Pictured: Moscow in 1991 and 2022. Russia is removing the golden arches after McDonald's said it is permanently leaving the market. Russia is going to rebrand the stores. (Thanks Michael J)
🇺🇦 Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defenses remain overall effective.
🇺🇦 Russian attempts to advance southeast of Izyum near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border were unsuccessful.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued steady advances around Severodonetsk and there is a good chance they will encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area in the coming days.
🇺🇦 Yes these are gains by Russia, but they’re gains into Moscow-friendly areas. (Russia still has problems projecting power 20-50 kilometers past its border)
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued to make persistent advances south and west of Popasna toward Bakhmut, but the Russian pace of advance will likely slow as they approach the town itself.
🇺🇦 Russian forces in occupied areas of the Southern Axis are reportedly preparing a “third line of defense” to consolidate long-term control over the region and in preparation to repel likely future Ukrainian counteroffensives.
🇺🇦 Russia is building up defenses in places they already own because they are having an impossible time taking any additional areas
🇺🇦 This posturing shows that this is largely going to be a defensive fight on Russia’s part.
🇺🇦 Regarding the WWII tanks Russia is using: It doesn’t matter what version of its tanks Russia is rolling out onto the battlefield. Russian doctrine is quantity over quality, and a brand-new tank gets hit by a javelin just as easy as a WWII tank
🇺🇦 Ukrainians are starting to suffer from heavy losses, lack of equipment, slow down in private donations, and exhaustion.
🇺🇦 9 out of 31 RF pilots shot down over Ukraine have been retired and over the age of 50. This suggests Russia is running out of qualified pilots.
🇺🇦 Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov accuses the west of canceling Russia. He went so far as to say that the west is cancelling the Nutcracker (Tchaikovsky).
🇺🇦 Russia stopping grain shipments to the rest of the world is causing three major problems:
Actual famine that has started (e.g., Countries such as Ethiopia are rationing grain). North Africa and the Middle East is suffering the most right now
Refugee crisis. Exodus of people moving from food poor nations to food rich nations, specifically in Europe
Rise of Islamic terror groups because they feed off of weak governance, food insecurity, and poverty, which this is going to bring. ISIS, Boko Haram, Al Shabab are gaining traction as a result
🇺🇦 Finland and Sweden likely won’t request a permanent US military presence if/when they join NATO, but will likely rotational excersize presence.
🇺🇦 Russia says the US giving UA multiple launch rocket systems will be crossing a red line but this is like the 8th red line the US has crossed so whatever
🇺🇦 Short update because Russia is mostly entrenching
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
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