Friday, November 25
Five carrier strike groups, the Gerald Ford's Battleflag, Kazakhstan, and hey, happy Thanksgiving!
🇺🇦 UA forces thanked the American people on Thanksgiving. “The Air Force of Ukraine congratulates the American people on Thanksgiving Day. We would like to thank you for your comprehensive support of the Ukrainian people. Special thanks for the NASAMS complexes provided. We hope that modern aircraft will also be provided,” the Ukrainian military posted on Twitter.
🇺🇦 I saw several posts from Ukrainians reveling in America’s Thanksgiving celebrations, saying when the war is over, they too should have a Thanksgiving day in Ukraine. “I think after our Victory we will also have a Thanksgiving day in Ukraine - a special day of gratitude to all our allies, friends and partners. All who help us win. All who win with us. We will have feasts on that day of delicious 🇺🇦 food. We’ll sing and dance, laugh and cry.”
🇺🇦 Pictured: the USS Gerald Ford battle flag is the Ukrainian flag.
🇺🇦 There are 5 NATO carrier strike groups in Europe now. The full lineup of active strike groups includes:
USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77)
HMS Queen Elizabeth (R08)
FS Charles de Gaulle (R91)
ITS Cavour (CVH 550).
🇺🇦 Russian soldiers are surrendering to Ukrainian multi rotor drones.
🇺🇦 Russia has almost used up all of their stock of Iranian-made drones
🇺🇦 Russia was planning a localized military conflict with Japan over the Kuril Islands in August 2021; several months before the war in Ukraine. This is reported by Newsweek, citing a letter written by an FSB whistleblower to a Russian human rights activist exiled in France. The letter was validated by two (current or former) FSB contacts.
🇺🇦 (Vladimir Osechkin, the Russian human rights activist mentioned above, is apparently a regular recipient of FSB correspondents)
🇺🇦 “The Russian authorities estimate the total current workforce deficit in the defense sector at 400,000 people. As a result, the losses of Russia's military during its invasion of Ukraine are irreversible.”
🇺🇦 The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of UA reports that Russian special services are planning provocations at critical infrastructure facilities in Belarus, particularly at the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regain public support for the war in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Most of Kyiv is without electricity.
🇺🇦 Destroying electrical infrastructure during the winter to weaken the population is Russia’s MO. This is exactly what they did in Syria.
🇺🇦 Prominent Russian politicians continue to promote openly genocidal rhetoric against Ukraine.
🇺🇦 The European Parliament has declared Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.
🇺🇦 The Russian FSB has killed a group of Russian people it claims are pro-Ukrainian saboteurs – but who reportedly appear to be Airsoft enthusiasts who were engaged in live-action roleplay of the S.T.A.L.K.E.R. video games.
🇺🇦 The Russian military continues to conduct massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in an attempt to degrade the Ukrainian will to fight. Messaging from the Kremlin is something akin to ‘If you want the missiles to stop, then give up.’ This, of course, amounts of blackmail as a military strategy.
🇺🇦 Russia is using missiles designed for their nuclear arsenal because they are running out of missiles. E.g., cruise missiles are being shot down that have their nuclear payload removed
🇺🇦Surgeons from the Center for Children's Cardiology in Lviv continued heart surgery after the power went out due to a Russian missile attack. No time for blackouts.
ℹ️ Kazakhstan subplot
🇺🇦 Over the past few months, Kazakhstan has broken ranks with Russia over Ukraine.
🇺🇦 One month ago, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan canceled Russia-led military bloc’s military drill
🇺🇦 Russia has begun preparing the information space for an invasion of Kazakhstan.
🇺🇦 ‘Kazakhstan is next. We need to denazify and liberate this country to save Russian population’
🇺🇦 Tokayev won the presidential election in Kazakhstan. Tokayev has pushed back publicly against territorial claims made by Putin in Ukraine, souring relations between Russian and Moscow. Tokayev expressed a clear critical position on Russia’s policy. On June 17, during a speech at an economic forum in St. Petersburg, in the presence of Vladimir Putin, Tokayev said that he did not recognize the “DPR” and “LPR” and criticized Russian politicians and media. Tokayev also criticized Russian politicians and media who make insulting statements about Kazakhstan.
🇺🇦 Russia and Kazakhstan share the world's longest continuous land border. Kazahkstan has the second-largest ethnic Russian population among ex-Soviet republics after Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Three months ago, Turkey and Kazakhstan signed Intelligence-sharing resolution which made Russia ‘hysterical,’ ‘indignant’
🇺🇦 I’m not a Kazakhstan expert, my sense is that the west considers Tokayev a “good” leader.
ℹ️ Russian gas grid subplot
🇺🇦On Nov 19, in St. Petersburg, Russia, a strong explosion was reported in the Murino district, after which a fire started. St. Petersburg governor said that the gas pipeline is on fire.
🇺🇦Russian authorities confirmed that the gas grid was attacked in St. Petersburg. It happened in the forests East of Murino. It is a high pressure gas pipelines which also feeds the gas power station near Lavriki.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
I want to correct the point about the "USS Gerald Ford battle flag is the Ukrainian flag." While the battle flag resembles the Ukrainian flag, it is not.
"As with most Navy battle flags, the colors and symbols selected for the Ford’s banner pay homage to the ship’s namesake, President Gerald R. Ford. The core color scheme of maize yellow and blue represents the 38th president’s undergraduate years at the University of Michigan, while the nautical compass topped with a fleur-de-lis at true north symbolizes not just the spirit of Ford’s naval service during World War II, but his “distinction as the only President who achieved the rank of Eagle Scout,..."
Source: https://taskandpurpose.com/culture/navy-uss-gerald-r-ford-aircraft-carrier-battle-flag/
As always, thanks for the work you put into keeping us informed about the war from Mordor.