Monday, August 8
Kherson resistance may win. Russia has planted explosives at the Zaporizhia nuclear plant
🇺🇦 Pictured: Russians using the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant as a base
☢️ Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant subplot:
☢️ Russia is using Zaporizhia nuclear plat as an army base. There are 500 troops at the base.
☢️ Russia is shelling the Zaporizhia nuclear plant.
☢️ The complex has been under Russian occupation since early March, although Ukrainian technicians still operate it.
☢️ Russian forces shelled the site and two UA workers had to be taken to the hospital from shrapnel. Three radiation sensors had been damaged.
☢️ Multiple reports that Russian troops are preparing to blow up the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant if they can’t keep it
☢️ Reports that Russian troops have wired energy units of Zaporizhia nuclear power plant with explosives. Major General Vasilyev, commander of the garrison stationed at the plant, announced readiness to blow up the plant.
☢️ Zaporizhia is connected to Ukraine's grid via one transmission line. If the line is damaged by Russian shelling, the plant will go into blackout mode, which will jeopardize the safety of nuclear fuel.
🇺🇦 Yesterday was the 14th anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Georgia
🇺🇦 I read some reporting that Russia may take a six-month pause in its full-scale invasion in order to build up fresh reserves and replenish its units
🇺🇦 Wagner Group recruited over 1,000 Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine. Recruiters have already visited at least 17 prisons in 10 regions in Russia to hire prisoners and deploy them to the front lines, according to Russian media.
🇺🇦 In resistance news: A Russian-appointed Kherson mayor was poisoned by a chef
🇺🇦 In resistance news: Russians are complaining about the situation in Kherson. No food, no water, every time supplies are destroyed it takes a long time to recover them, the local people hate them and relay their positions to UA’s armed forces. There is a real chance Kherson will be abandoned.
🇺🇦 In resistance news: Kherson ‘referendum’ on pause, due to (a) Russian incompetence, and (b) Russian “realization that Kherson residents have Ukrainian identity”
🇺🇦 In resistance news: Collaborators (pro-Russian Ukrainian government politicians appointed by Russia) do not know how to seek a referendum because of the realization that Ukrainian citizens do not want to be Russian. As in, they don’t know how to go forward with annexation.
🇺🇦 …In other words, what I’m reading is that the occupiers came up and said Kherson needs to be annexed, and the population is like “f-u, I’m tearing down your flags, blowing up all of your collaborators, and stabbing all of the occupiers I can find” and the occupiers just don’t know what to do with that. They seem to literally not have anticipated this.
🇺🇦 5 Russian bases (in Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhya provinces) and 3 arms depots destroyed by Ukrainian artillery yesterday.
🇺🇦 Russia lost 300 troops in Donetsk in one day…the most in Donetsk so far (Aug 6).
🇺🇦 More radar reflectors were installed on the sides of the Antonovskiy Bridge. There is also some type of active EW defense to jam gps/glonass signals. Gps navigation is not working till about 200 meters away from the bridge.
🇺🇦 Turkey will build a Bayraktar drone factory in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Russia unilaterally halted US inspections of its nukes under New START treaty. The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was signed in 2010 and is expected to last until 2026. The treaty provides for 18 on-site inspections per year for U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals.
🇺🇦 Three different Ukrainian organizations have raised over $113,000 for the UA military by writing messages on b0mbs in exchange for donations.
🇺🇦 Russia is massing troops in the south
🇺🇦 Russia appears to be delaying the annexation of Kherson,
🇺🇦 There are growing calls to enact travel bans on Russians traveling in Europe
🇺🇦 Security Service detains Russians planning to assassinate Budanov Reznikov, head of the Defense Ministry's Intelligence Directorate. The assassins were offered $150,000 to do the job
🇺🇦 Former Defense Minister was charged with high treason for signing controversial deal with Russia. The State Investigation Bureau reported that Mykhailo Yezhel, former Defense Minister, was charged with high treason.
🇺🇦 Russia has started stripping jetliners for parts as sanctions bite
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!