Monday, June 20
“There is a burning imperative to forge an army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeat Russia in battle.”
🇺🇦 Pictured: the US is sending UA unmanned surface vehicles. Details are sparse but pictured is one candidate system, Common USV built by Textron. Once again, drones may change the nature of this war.
🇺🇦 Putin will visit Belarus on June 30 - July 1st to speak with Leshchenko, likely about countering western sanctions, and pressure Belarus to provide more support to Russian in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 In an ironic turn, the Kremlin’s continued framing of its invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than a war is actively hindering Russian force generation capabilities
🇺🇦 Classifying it as a “special military operation” means Russian authorities don’t have legal means to punish military dissenters and those who refuse to mobilize
🇺🇦 Calling it a “special operation” is creating poor perceptions of Russian military leadership among Russian nationalists
🇺🇦 Calling it a “special operation” creates problems with paying troops
🇺🇦 Russian sources reported that the authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) plan to hold war crimes tribunals until the end of August 2022 and that at least one of these tribunals will be held in Mariupol.
🇺🇦 The trials will be modeled after Nuremberg format for war crimes trials.
🇺🇦 The trials are a sham attempt to try lawful prisoners of war as war criminals and support the Kremlin’s false framing of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a ”de-Nazification” operation.
🇺🇦 Speaking of shams, Russian forces are likely conducting false-flag artillery attacks against Russian-held territory to dissuade Ukrainian sentiment and encourage the mobilization of proxy forces.
🇺🇦 In 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea, Russia stole Ukrainian oil rigs. Russia has been using them illegally ever since. Ukraine blew up three of them last night.
🇺🇦 UA was previously avoiding striking infrastructure in Crimea to avoid escalation, and that’s clearly no longer the case. This might be a UA overture towards a future offensive on Crimea.
🇺🇦 Lithuania has blocked the freight railway between the Russian Federation and Kaliningrad. Freight will be searched and any sanctioned materials will be seized. This has lead to panic showing in Kaliningrad.
🇺🇦 Multiple EU countries are modifying/adapting/changing their rail system to allow for UA grain exporting in light of Russian blockades.
🇺🇦 UK announced a shift to training an army capable of deterring Russia, saying ‘the world has changed since Feb 24’. “There is a burning imperative to forge an army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeat Russia in battle.” No, this doesn’t mean there will be a fight with Russia, just that the UK sees RU as the greatest potential threat.
🇺🇦 Three apartments in Munich were confiscated from a State Duma deputy. This is the first time in Germany that sanctions have not only frozen Russian assets but also confiscated them.
🇺🇦 Ukraine asked for more weapons to fight Russia, so Miami police are hosting a gun buyback, and sending the guns to Ukraine
🇺🇦 I read a take today that said for many European nations the war against Russia is payback time. Not one of these nations will tell Ukraine to stop, and all of them will help to k1ll as many Russian troops as possible. This is because of recent history (compiled by Thomas C. Theiner @noclador):
Russia murdered 193 Dutch citizens by shooting their plane out of the sky. Then let the corpses rot in the fields, pillaged the deads’ belongings. russia still lies about MH17, mocks the dead, and tries to sabotage the trial in the Netherlands to hold Putin accountable.
Russia used a nuclear poison to murder a British citizen in 2006, then used a chemical weapon to poison five British citizens in 2018
When Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania moved to regain independence in 1991 moscow sent tanks to literally crush people.
In the last decade Russia used cyberattacks, economic warfare and energy blockades every time the Baltics try to dismantle remnants of the russian occupation and subjugation.
After World War II Russia annexed the easternmost part of Czechoslovakia. Then in 1968 Russian tanks invaded and crushed the Prague Spring.
When in 2014 Russian GRU intelligence agents blew up the ammunition depot in Vrbětice and killed two Czech citizens
After finally liberating Bessarabia from Tussian occupation after World War I, Russia again invaded and annexed Bessarabia in 1940. And as always when Russia invades a place ethnic cleansing (photo), mass executions, and deportations to Siberia followed. The Russians then renamed Bessarabia as Moldova and forced the people to write their language Romanian, in the alien Cyrillic alphabet
When Moldova tried to gain independence russia started a civil war, invaded, and to this day occupies the Eastern part of Moldova.
Albania has not forgotten the Russian support for Serbia during the Kosovo war.
Croatia has not forgotten Russia's support for Serbia, when Serbia attacked Croatia in 1991, killed 1,000s, displaced 300,000 Croats and bombed Croatian cities into rubble.
Croatians have not forgotten the russians supporting Serbia during the Bosnian war 1992-95, which killed 100,000+, displaced more than 2.2 million, and during which the Serbian raped like 50,000 women.
the Russians used a chemical weapon to try and poison a Bulgarian citizen in 2015
In the first days of russia's invasion of Ukraine russian forces killed at least 10 Greek citizens, and attacked Greek ships. Instead of condolences russia mocked Greece and infuriated the Greek government.
In 2016 Montenegro's intelligence services caught russian intelligence agents trying to organize a coup to eliminate the government of Đukanović, which wanted Montenegro to join NATO.
Italy spent vast sums of money and work to stabilize Libya after the 2011 overthrow of Gaddafi, only for russia to come in and try to install warlord Haftar as new ruler of Libya. Italian/Turkish intervention helped the Libyans drive back putin's Wagner mercenaries, but at great expense to Italy; and that war is not yet over.
In 2017 Russia promised Catalan separatists money, support, recognition, even 30,000 troops if they would declare independence from Spain. Naturally the Russians had no intention to truly send troops, all they wanted was to start a civil war in Spain. Like Italy Spain has not forgotten and is hell-bent of revenge.
And of course, Russia continues to use cyber, psyops, and political spending to destabilize western countries
🇺🇦 Concentrated Russian artillery power paired with likely understrength infantry units remains insufficient to enable Russian advances within Severodonetsk.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued to prepare to advance on Slovyansk from southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are focusing on strengthening defensive positions along the Southern Axis due to recent successful Ukrainian counterattacks along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.
🇺🇦 Successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Zaporizhia area are forcing Russian forces to rush reinforcements to this weakened sector of the front line.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
I am glad to hear about Lithuania slowing down freight to Kaliningrad. I have been hoping that they would stop all traffic. I do not know what treaties they have about the railroad but Lithuania could always use the Special Railroad Operations excuse.