🇺🇦 7-8,000 civilians are left in Severodonetsk as Russian forces take full control
🇺🇦 Russians in Severodonetsk are taking over civilian homes to house soldiers and make offices
🇺🇦 Pictured: A Ukrainian comedian crowdfunded $20 million to purchase Bayraktar drones. Baykar was so touched by this that they announced they will not accept payment, and will give Ukraine the drones for free.
🦆 The above has Mighty Ducks 4 written all over it: a scrappy group of kids, inspired by a comedian, hold a bake sale to raise money to buy attack drones for their fight against the Soviet bloc, only for the weapons manufacturer to be touched by their friendship, teamwork, and positive outlook through difficult times, and ends up donating three drones for free. Then they go off to win the regional hockey championship. In theaters this Christmas.
🇺🇦 In response to Putin’s invasion, NATO will boost its rapid-response unit from 40,000 to over 300,000 troops.
🇺🇦 Putin confirms his attendance at G20 summit in which Zelensky is set to participate
🇺🇦 The United States introduced 35% customs tariffs on Russian products
🇺🇦 A Russian missile hit and destroyed a crowded shopping center with a reported ~1,000 people in it. “It is impossible to even imagine the number of victims.” In a normal world, this would be a major world-stopping news event. This shopping center was targeted.
🇺🇦 According to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, 480,000 people have left Russia since the beginning of the war.
🇺🇦 Ammunition is becoming a determining factor in Donbas
🇺🇦 Russia has figured out that they only thing they’re good at is artillery, so now their entire effort is based around massive artillery barrages. To be fair, they’re really good at artillery, and it’s effective, and that’s what they’ve resorted to. They completely raze a town to move in on it.
🇺🇦 This isn’t a combined forces fight, and Russia will run out of steam as they go further and further from their border.
🇺🇦 HIMARS are highly effective and highly accurate. The Russian systems are far less accurate. Still, Russia outguns UA as they make these incremental but slow gains. However, this can only go so far before counter-battery affects it. We’ll have to see what happens going forward.
🇺🇦 Before, there were rapid changes on the battlefield, and could have pushed out operational every 12 hours. Now, operational updates aren’t warranted every day, and may come out every 48 to 72 hours. (Hopefully that illustrates the operational tempo)
🇺🇦 4 days ago, Putin threatened to strike the US embassy in Kyiv. This wasn’t note worthy to me until last night when I saw that…
🇺🇦 CIA has agents and special operators in Ukraine. They’re not conducing any fighting, but they’re doing a lot of logistical work. This is not unheard of and isn’t actually out of the ordinary. The US embassy is still in operation in Kyiv which is likely where they’re operating from.
🇺🇦 Russia missed its debt payment for the first time in 100 years (1918). Payments expired in May 27th with a 30-day grace period when ended today.
💸 Russia is probably in default, but the technical definition of default is a willingness to miss the payment. In this case, Russia argues that they are willing to make the payment but can’t because of western sanctions.
💸Consensus amongst economists and creditors is the sanctions themself is a reaction to Russian actions. Like…if a person commits a crime, then goes to jail, and they don’t make a car payment, it doesn’t matter if they have the money and are willing to make the payment.
🇺🇦 Turkey will attend a round of talks with NATO, Finland, and Sweden in Madrid at the leader level at the request of NATO to iron out Turkey’s issues with Fin and Sweden from joining NATO. The fact that Erdogan agreed to these talks is significant and a postive development for Fin&Sweden’s membership. Erdogan will probably get most of what he wants. If he still doesn’t, France, America, etc, will probably step in and put more pressure on Turkey.
💸 Today I learned that gold is Russia’s second biggest commodity export behind energy. This is worth $15b per year. UK, US, Japan, and Canada have agreed to ban the Russian import of gold. Wealthy Russians have been buying safe haven bullion to mitigate the effects of sanctions.
They were putting giant boxes of gold on planes for payments for things.
🦆💸Sorry to the Substack readers who can’t see the cool emojis I used today
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
A few days ago I actually searched for information about if the U.S. embassy in Kyiv has been bombed yet. I was surprised to find out that it has not been hit. Either on purpose or by accident.