🇺🇦 A drone attack caused a major oil depot fire in Crimea on April 29. This is seen as a precursor to a Ukrainian counteroffensive
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s counteroffensive appears imminent. Ukraine’s front lines are abuzz with vehicle movement and artillery strikes, with regular explosions hitting vital Russian targets in occupied areas.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s defense minister has said preparations are “coming to an end”
🇺🇦 Russia, on the other hand, seems to be in a state of disarray. Wagner Group and Russian forces continue to fight each other. Russia just fired their deputy defense minister
🇺🇦 Russia is building defenses deep inside its own territory, far from the front lines.
🇺🇦 Some of these lines are behind Russia’s borders, suggesting Russia is worried about a sweeping Ukrainian victory that pushes into Russian territory.
🇺🇦 In fact, some of these defenses are hundreds of miles away from its borders with Ukraine, well inside internationally recognized Russian territory in Belgorod and Kursk.
🇺🇦 (Some suggest that building trenches deep within Russian territory is done to help Putin’s narrative that Ukraine is a threat to Russia)
🇺🇦 Satellite images show Russian forces have built a vast network of defensive lines and trenches along Crimea’s coast.
🇺🇦 The counteroffensive was delayed for many reasons, including weather and intelligence leaks
🇺🇦 A credible Russian source has said that Russia will conduct its own counter offensive if Ukraine culminates and fails in their offensive.
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities are preparing evacuation plans in occupied parts of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to Ukraine’s National Resistance Center. Russian authorities are preparing evacuation of workers and their families.
🇺🇦 Power lines were blown up in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast last night, and a train carrying fuel supplies was derailed in Bryansk
🇺🇦 Defense Minister Oleskii Reznikov expressed confidence that the west would supply fighter jets to Ukraine. This fighter jet drama is its own sub plot with lots of twists and turns that amount to Ukraine not having western fighter jets. Zelensky said a counter offensive will proceed whether western jets are received or not (this is mostly referring to F-16’s) .
🇺🇦 Over night, Ukraine air defense shot down 15 out of 18 Russian air-launched cruise missiles.
🇺🇦 Russia has lost 190,960 troops
🇺🇸 US Speaker of the House McCarthy (R-CA) took a sudden and strong support for Ukraine when a Russian media reporter asked about America’s “unlimited and uncontrolled supplies of weaponry”
🇺🇸 McCarthy: “I voted for aid for Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine. I do not support your killing of the children, either. You should pull out. And I don’t think it’s right. And we will continue to support Ukraine, because the rest of the world sees it just as it is”.
🇺🇦 Russia is suffering its worst labor shortage in 25 years
🇺🇦 Ukraine defended Bakhmut despite the US recommending against it
🇺🇦 The head of the Russian private military company Wagner has threatened to withdraw his mercenaries from the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut if they don’t receive more munitions to continue the fight.
🇺🇦 Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories, Iryna Vereshchuk called on Ukrainians in occupied territories to refuse Russian passports, contrary to Ukraine’s Ombudsman’s advice
🇺🇦 Russian soldiers who occupied Chernobyl and fished there are getting sick. Like…duh? Don’t eat the radio active fish?
🇺🇦 Zelensky says guns were stashed throughout his office, he was determined not to be taken prisoner/captured, was prepared to personally shoot back
🇺🇦 Russia and China are in "advanced secret talks" with Iran to supply the country with ammonium perchlorate, a chemical used to propel missiles, Politico reported.
🇺🇦 Russia’s on-going abduction and forceful displacement of Ukrainian children is a centuries-tested practice of conquest, and is an established genocidal tactic during war
🇺🇦 The International Criminal Court ruled that Russia’s abduction of Ukrainian children is a war crime for which President Vladimir Putin should be held accountable
🇺🇦 President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned Vladimir Putin not to come to South Africa in light of his arrest warrant (Issued March 24 by ICC judges)
🇺🇦 Russia dropped a 1,000 pound bomb on their own city of Belagrod but thought that they had bombed Ukraine and was bragging about it online (April 21)
🇺🇦 (sorta pictured) Two western-provided MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine and are operational.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s own Soviet-era air defense capabilities are reportedly dwindling
🇺🇦 Last year I asserted that the new Italian PM Meloni would be a Putin ally, and a lot of readers disagreed. I am writing to say that you were right: she has become a Russia Hawk, very harsh on the Putin regime, and a staunch supporter of Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Side note: I’ve started to notice that a lot of Ukraine war videos are now tagged [no music] to indicate it’s just war sounds. I still can’t believe I’m watching a war unfold on social media
ℹ️ Leaked documents subplot
🇺🇦 A trove of leaked Pentagon documents revealed how deeply Russia’s security and intelligence services have been penetrated by the United States, demonstrating Washington’s ability to warn Ukraine about planned strikes and providing an assessment of the strength of Moscow’s war machine.
🇺🇦 The documents show that America’s understanding of Russian planning remains extensive and that the United States is able to warn Ukraine’s military about Moscow’s future operations
🇺🇦 The American assessment of the UA army is that it itself is in dire straits
🇺🇦 According to these leaked documents, America assesses Ukraine’s air defenses to have critical shortages
🇺🇦 The intelligence reports seem to indicate that the United States is also spying on Ukraine’s top military and political leaders, a reflection of Washington’s struggle to get a clear view of Ukraine’s fighting strategies.
🇺🇦 These documents show the U.S. has reportedly gained access to the “internal plans” of the infamous Kremlin-backed Wagner Group mercenaries, which showed that the group “has sought to purchase arms from Turkey, a NATO ally.” According to the report, some Wagner personnel “met with Turkish contacts to purchase weapons and equipment from Turkey for Wagner’s efforts in Mali and Ukraine” in early February
🇺🇦 Ukraine's intelligence dismissed classified war documents leaked online as 'fake' (they were real)
🇺🇦 Russian milbloggers also conclude they are fakes, designed to mislead Russia. (they were real)
🇺🇦 Both allies and foes are questioning the authenticity of these documents (they were real)
🇺🇦 Ukraine has altered plans as a result of these leaks
🇺🇦 A member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard was arrested on Thursday 4/13 in connection with the leak, according to a US official familiar with the matter.
🇺🇦 These documents were posted as far back as October 2022. New York Times investigative journalism identified Jack Teixeira by following a digital evidence trail
So this is how it happened:
🇺🇦 There was a Minecraft Discord server with a bunch of teenagers. One guy was like, ‘you’re a bunch of betas, I have high level military clearance’. One of the Discord Minecraft teens was like ‘no you don’t, you c__k’. So then the guy started posting Ukrainian battle plans
🇺🇦 And that’s how 21 year old intelligence officer Jack Teixeira leaked the entire Ukrainian battle plan and exposed the west’s spy network. He didn’t do it for political reasons nor an ideology…he did it for clout
ℹ️ Drones subplot
🇺🇦 Russia is jamming DJI drones at a higher rate, causing some in Ukraine to fear that Ukraine’s drone supremacy may soon be over.
🇺🇦 The concern for Ukraine, according to three frontline drone operators deployed in the city over the winter, is that the Russians are close to countering the most popular models in operation, those made by the Chinese manufacturer DJI. “They’re adept and they are manufacturing these special jamming systems,” said Yaroslav, 31.
🇺🇦 Yevhen, 38, another drone operator from Kharkiv, is a friend of Maksym and Yaroslav, and like them was deployed in Bakhmut for three months over the winter. Like them, he believes the days of the frontline DJI drone are numbered. “Frankly speaking for me, Mavics are already starting to die. In December we were able to fly 3km, so we were not working from the zero point [the frontline]. Now the guys are saying they cannot fly further than 500 metres,” he said.
🇺🇦 Frontline soldiers are seeking to replace these DJI drones with long range drone and FPV drones. The different protocols and operating frequencies is what would defeat Russian countermeasures
🇺🇦 Samuel Bendett, a drone expert with the US Center for Naval Analyses, says the likely change in technology could favour Ukraine. The “Russians are very concerned that Ukrainians have the advantage” when it comes to the FPV drones, worried that a large number will be used to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and that Moscow may not have enough pilots or technological know-how to keep up.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, sconsider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news