🇺🇦 A firefight erupted in a military base in Russia’s Belgorod region near Ukraine, reported of dead and wounded after possible recruits/mobilized forces open fire on other soldiers. The shooters were from unspecified soviet republics. Reports suggest 22 dead and 16 wounded
🇺🇦 Elon Musk walked back his ceasing of StarLink support after it turned into a PR nightmare. So StarLink will continue to provide service to Ukraine for free. Although he clearly wasn’t happy about it: "The hell with it," he wrote. “Even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free.” ….Note: there seems to be some nuance to this; many people, including parts of the UA gov, are paying for StarLink service.
🇺🇦 Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing
🇺🇦 Washington Post: US 'grows frustrated' over EU delayed financial assistance to Ukraine. “Tensions are rising" between the U.S. and the European Union over Ukraine's deteriorating economy. U.S. officials "increasingly prod" the EU to boost its financial assistance to Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Russia has blocked the website of the Ukrainian state project "I Want to Live," created for troops willing to surrender to the Ukrainian army after applying online. As of Oct. 4, the site has received more than 2,000 requests from the Russian military.
🇺🇦 The ratio of UA to RU losses is 1 to 6.5, according to UA Deputy Defense Minister, citing the commander of Operational Command South. The UA expects that this will increase to 1:8
🇺🇦 ….“Several thousand” children from Kherson Oblast are “already in other regions of Russia, resting in rest homes and children’s camps.”
ℹ️ Operations:
🇺🇦 The last SITREP I said the Kherson offensive is underway, and I should have said “The Kherson offensive has resumed”
🇺🇦 Fog of war is enveloping Kherson. We don’t know the extent of the new Kherson offensive.
🇺🇦 …that said, NASA FIRMS data, which tracks forest fires and burning military equipment, shows action happening south of the front-line city of Mylove (Pictured).
🇺🇦 The heaviest fighting is currently in two cities in Donetsk Oblast, Soledar and Bakhmut. Ukrainian military is holding off Russians, which includes 2,000 Russian prisoners who were promised amnesty if they fought against Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Northern front in eastern Ukraine: There are reports that Kuzemivka has been liberated bringing the Ukrainian forces within 12 km from the north of Svatove. UA is now closing in 3 directions
🇺🇦 Russia continues to focus attacks on residential infrastructure, prioritizing psychological terror effects on Ukraine over achieving tangible battlefield effects
🇺🇦 Russian forces struck sunflower oil tanks in Mykolaiv. Like…that’s what you’re using your limited munitions on?
ℹ️ Israel subplot
🇺🇦 Yesterday (Oct 16) an intelligence assessment revealed that Iran plans to provide Russia with surface-to-air missiles as well as drones
🇺🇦 After the report that Iran will send surface-to-surface missiles intended for Russia's use against Ukraine, Israel's Minister of Diaspora Affair said: "The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid from Israel just as has from the USA and NATO countries."
🇺🇦 Dmitry Medvedev warned Israel that its ties with Russia would be destroyed if it will send weapons to Ukraine
🇺🇦 Ties between Israel and Russia were never good. Russia has consistently supported or armed Israel's enemies throughout Israel's history. Israel has just traditionally felt it had enough enemies as it was, and that Russia was something the US handled. Russia and Israel never benefited largely from each other’s technology, besides the occasional transaction. Nothing essential.
🇺🇦 Opinion: Now that Russia has been revealed as an ineffectual power, and with these threats, outright bad relationships frees up policy options the Israeli government used to consider untenable…such as a freer hand in operating in Syria. Israel has always been in a tough spot with international relations, and Russia has been a massive part of that problem.
ℹ️ Igor Girkin subplot
🇺🇦 I haven’t followed the Igor Girkin subplot, but he has apparently volunteered to fight in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Igor Girkin is the piece of work responsible for shooting down MH17. He’s also been involved in murders, kidnappings, terrorism, and a cacophony of most-wanted crimes. There is an international warrant out for his arrest.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian bloggers raised a $50,000 bounty for Igor Girkin’s capture.
ℹ️ Iran subplot
🇺🇦 There’s this whole Iran subplot that I’m not going to cover with any justice. Iran is supporting Russia, which is why this is relevant. There are major anti-government protests in Iran. Iran is attacking targets in Iraq Kurdistan, with the excuse that they are behind the anti-government protests. Girls are being murdered by the public, and others are disappearing at the government’s hands for not wearing headscarfs. Protesters are being arrested. Live ammunition is being used against political prisoners inside of the Evin prison.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
2 Comments
1 more comment...No posts
I have wondered how much Ukraine's Starlink is costing per month. Now that the terminals are in place, what is the actual monthly expense that Musk is whining about? Maybe he is missing out on potential income. But I don't believe that the actual expenses are that much.