Monday, September 12
There is a real chance the Russian Federation will collapse as a result of the past week of counter-offensive. TBD
🇺🇦 Everyone will be happy to know that with the rapid withdrawal of Russian forces, the tractors are back and towing Russian assets away
🇺🇦 Russia’s Chechen allies are expressing shock at Russia’s rapid retreat in Kharkiv
🇺🇦 If UA can take Kherson, then all of Russia’s assets in Crimea is in range
🇺🇦 The near total withdrawal of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast puts a number of important targets (located in Russia) within range of Ukrainian artillery.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is now slowing in the north east (Kharkiv region) because they moved too fast through Russian lines.
🇺🇦 Russian nationalists and pro-Russian social media are noticeably angry at Moscow for their silence after this major defeat.
🇺🇦 Units of several divisions of the RuAF did not have time to escape from Izyum, and are now encircled.
🇺🇦 As a direct result of Russia’s largest defeat since the beginning of the war, Putin canceled meetings in Sochi with the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry. Moscow Times reports that Putin retreated to his Sochi mansion. Yes, Russian media is reporting this.
🇺🇦 Neither Putin, who is Russia's supreme commander-in-chief of the armed forces, nor Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had publicly commented on the defeat.
🇺🇦 Pundits on Russian TV are starting to realize that their military is failing and their country is in trouble.
🇺🇦 There is a very real chance the Russian Federation will collapse as a result of the past week of counter-offensive.
🇺🇦 Germany energy companies are signing contracts to buy energy for 15-20 years, signifying a permanent separation from Russian gas
🇺🇦 UA General Staff states that Russia is no longer sending new units to Ukraine
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Air Force shot down a Sukhoi Su-34 bomber. Someone else post a picture of it lol
🇺🇦 The Russian Army didn’t remove the wreckage of Su-30SM 'RF-81773' that came down in Kharkiv Oblast before they retreated, so now Western intelligence agencies now own a slightly dented SAP-518SM 'Regata' jamming pod. This is a Russian aerial electronic warfare system
🇺🇦 Multiple unconfirmed sources saying that Russian soldiers at the Dnipro river are negotiating surrender. This isn’t strategic, this is survival
🇺🇦 Ukraine's General Staff reports that Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division are in a panic due to encirclement with all supply lines cut off in Kharkiv region. This Division has 6 regiments and 2 battalions. A typical division has 10k-20k soldiers.
🇺🇦 “Citizens” of Putin’s puppet states in Luhansk and Donetsk are evacuating and crowding roads to the frontier-- only to discover that they're being refused entry into Russia. This is interesting because many of them are carrying freshly issued Russian passports.
🇺🇦 Russian pilots are discussing fleeing Russia to South America avoid international prosecution: Amid the retreat of the Russian army, there are talks in the Russian military sphere about the inevitability of defeat and the prosecution of all participants in aggression against Ukraine.
🇺🇦 More Russian officials are urging Putin to step down or at least leave the Kremlin. The most recent voices are municipal deputies. “We ask you to relieve yourself of your post due to the fact that your views and your governance model are hopelessly outdated and hinder the development of Russia and its human potential.”
🇺🇦 Russian troops retreated from Svatove, Luhansk Oblast.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces destroy a Russian ammunition depots and ferry crossing in Kherson Oblast. I’ve stopped reporting on ammunition depot destruction because it happens so often
🇺🇦 Despite retreated, Russia is still striking targets. A Russian strike on Dnipro over night left multiple wounded. Russian forces shell Mykolaiv, injuring 9.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Sept. 11 that Russia had also lost 2,154 tanks, 4,617 armored fighting vehicles, 3,445 vehicles and fuel tanks, 1,263 artillery systems, 311 multiple launch rocket systems, 162 air defense systems, 242 airplanes, 213 helicopters, 902 drones, and 15 boats.
🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been "completely shut down”. The last operating reactor at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) has been shut down after the plant’s number 6 power unit was disconnected from the grid at 3:41 a.m. local time. It is apparently in “island mode” and using its own energy to power the cooling systems
🇺🇦 Ukraine's Armed Forces liberated more than 6,000 square kilometers since start of September. This makes 9,919 square KM since June 2nd
🇺🇦 A whole company's worth of what looked to be T-80BVs and T-80Us were found abandoned in Kharkiv (hence the bullet point about tractors earlier). As the joke goes, Russia is the number 1 arms manufacturer in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Russia abandoned (gave) more military equipment to Ukraine in one day than Germany and France combined in the past year
🇺🇦 Lavrov says Russia isn’t opposed to negotiations.
🇺🇦 Russia has fled Luhansk.
🇺🇦 Ukraine may have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River.
🇺🇦 Russian troops fleeing after their lines were shattered left behind so much ammo and weaponry Ukraine is struggling to handle it all
🇺🇦 Cards with instructions on how to surrender are now being airdropped on Russia soldiers. “Your ticket to a peaceful life…”
🇺🇦 Kherson is a bloody slug fest, but all accounts suggest UA is wining the fight.
🇺🇦 Satellite images confirm that Russian forces are retreating from Kherson
🇺🇦 Putin attended a new ferris wheel opening
🇺🇦 The ferris wheel is 140 meters tall, making it the largest in Europe. Wow!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🐱 For JoJo, who purred and purred