🇺🇦 Zelensky made three promises to soldiers who surrender:
you will be treated in a civilized manner, in accordance with all conventions;
no one will know the circumstances of your surrender, no one in Russia will know that your surrender was voluntary;
if you are afraid to return to Russia and do not want an exchange, we will find a way to ensure this as well.
🇺🇦 Pictured: Russian defense lines appear to have collapsed near Lyman from a pincer attack from Ukrainian Forces
🇺🇦 Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhnyi: “We have finished with the Russian professional army, it is time to finish with the amateur army as well"
🇺🇦 The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has stated that the Russian command is sending newly mobilized servicemen without any training directly to the front line to replenish units that have suffered losses.
🇺🇦 Maryana Mamonova, a medic and defender of Azovstal recently freed from Russian captivity, gave birth to a girl today.
🇺🇦 Former Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Zhuravko, who collaborated with occupiers in Kherson Oblast, has been k1lled
🇺🇦 30 mercenaries of the Russian PMC "Liga" arrived at the Minsk airport with weapons, ammunit1on and captured Ukrainian uniforms. This appears to be in preparation for a false flag operation. Possible targ3ts: CIV/MIL objects near Pinsk, Ivanovo and Kobrin.
🇺🇦 A US war cr1mes bill was introduced that allows to prosecute foreign war criminals. Including Russian and Syrian ones
🇺🇦 Putin and Lukashenko declare that they will not tolerate "humiliation" from the West. Guys, stop humiliating Russia!
🇺🇦 Giorgia Meloni will become Italy’s next PM, which is a big win for Putin and Russia.
🇺🇦 An entire company of Russian soldiers from the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division were destr0yed today in heavy f1ghting near Bakhmut.
🇺🇦 There are corresponding claims and visual evidence that conclude the Ukrainian army liberated Krymky, Olexandrivka, Korovii Yar, Karpivka, Lozove, Rubtsi and Ridkodub in Donetsk oblast as well as Pisky-Radkivski, Maliivka and Vyshe Zolone in the Kharkiv oblast.
🇺🇦 Putin has allegedly fled to a secret palatial complex in a forest amidst social unrest. Multiple outlets are reporting this.
ℹ️ Russian Orthodox Church is an extension of the FSB, subplot:
🇺🇦 Patriarch Kirill says dying in war against Ukraine “cleanses away all sins”
ℹ️ Mobilization
🇺🇦 In Crimea, Russia is disproportionately target1ng the indigenous Crimean population
🇺🇦 Because of the above, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak says Russia is pretreating an ethn1cally-motived genoc1de in occupied Crimea
🇺🇦 Weapons given to conscripts are in awful condition. Many are rusting and moldy
🇺🇦 I mentioned yesterday that conscripts are receiving 2 weeks of training. This may be a generous assessment, as there is no longer a professional army around to train them.
🇺🇦 There are so many videos of drunken mobilization. People walking around with their pants at their ankles because they’re too drunk to pull them up; people getting into drunken fights; people having been unloaded from a bus just milling around without anything to do and yelling that they have no idea what’s going on then laughing about it. While these are all anecdotal, there are enough anecdotes for me to form an opinion.
🇺🇦 There are conflicts between what Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu outlined and what is actually happening. Some of this is due to a divided and complex responsibility, as well as disorganization. For example, some localities are being pressured into quotas.
🇺🇦 Local authorities are behaving as though they received orders to prioritize getting bodies to training centers over adhering to Shoigu’s guidelines. Confused chains of responsibility are likely responsible for the divergence between Shoigu’s statements and on-the-ground actions.
🇺🇦 There are unconfirmed reports that men who bring their own gear to mobilization are having their equipment taken from them. Because Russia is criminals all the way up
🇺🇦 Protests against mobilization continue. In Dagestan, protestors blocked a highway, and authorities tried dispersing them with machine gun fire
🇺🇦 Update (Sept 25): Russian Police lose crowd control in Dagestan with protesters overpowering them
🇺🇦 Update (Sept 25): Dagestan protesters are recapturing draft detainees
🇺🇦 In Dagestan, Russians are exchanging information on how to obstruct police access - it looks like massive roadblocks are being prepared.
🇺🇦 Dagestan is being hit had disproportionately because of their ethn1c m1norities
🇺🇦 A new wave of ars0ns at military enlistment offices and local administrations unfolds across Russia at least 20 military commissariats were set on fire. Note: Russian local media states this number is 11
🇺🇦 In Siberia, a man called up for duty sh0t a military official at the local enlistment office
🇺🇦 …”an official gathered those being drafted…the official started explaining everything clumsily…some guy walked out of line and said ‘nobody’s going anywhere’ and then I heard 3 sh0ts”
🇺🇦 2,300 people have been arrested in anti-war protests (time stamp: 2:21pm EST)
🇺🇦 260,000 Russians have fled Russia since the mobilization announcement.
🇺🇦 Military recruiters have the authority to draft people, and they can draft people over personal grudges. There is at least one example of a military recruiter in Novosibirsk drafting someone who made a complaint against him
🇺🇦 Two of Putin's top propagandists, head of RT Margarita Simonyan and state TV host Vladimir Solovyov, are aghast at how poorly the "partial mobilization" is going. They are, of course, putting a pro-Putin spin on it, blaming everyone in the chain of command besides Putin.
ℹ️ Russian training subplot
🇺🇦 Mobilized men have been wandering for 4 days on a training ground with no training provided, and no equipment given to them.
ℹ️ Economic subplot
🇺🇦 Mobilization will have truly catastrophic consequences to the Russian economy. Yes, the sanctions are devastating, but Russia has been able to prop the economy up through creative bullshittery. Getting rid of 1.2 million workers—with millions more quitting to avoid the draft—is nothing short of catastrophic.
🇺🇦 This war will cost $2.8 trillion in economic output across the world, and winter energy shortages can push that figure higher
🇺🇦 Russian stocks plunged today to February invasion lows
ℹ️ Warcrimes
🇺🇦 I’m sorry that I don’t report on war cr1mes. I’ve seen so many things in the past month that put my heart into a constant state of break, and I can’t in good faith pass that on to you.
ℹ️ Xi Jinping subplot
🇨🇳Yes I’ve heard about the rumor that Xi Jinping is under house arrest as part of a military coup, however, I have not seen any geopolitical indications that there has been a disturbance in China. This is one of those things that we can start paying attention to once main stream media starts pushing it to our phones. I am watching this thread and will report something if something concrete happens
ℹ️ Social media subplot
Sorry about so many words with numbers in them. Facebook is f1agging this post so I’m trying to figure out what is triggering it
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
My wife and I were discussing that even if Putin managed to mobilize his "army" he would not be able to outfit and feed them. Russia can't support the military they have. Dropping another half million untrained, unfed, un-outfitted people into the front lines would only result in more chaos for Russia.