Wednesday, October 19
Russian state TV is preparing public opinion for a loss of Kherson. Martial law in Russia may be imminent
🇺🇦 Putin has declared martial law in Russian-occupied regions… although it is unclear what difference, if any, that will make.
🇺🇦 Putin is holding an emergency meeting to discuss neutralizing threats to national security due to migration — this seems to mean Putin wants to stop brain drain, manpower, valuable IP, and intelligence assets from slipping out of the country and into the west
🇺🇦 ….this likely means Putin is considering martial law across Russia.
🇺🇦 As I compile reports, I see more and more suggestion that marital law is imminent in Russia.
🇺🇦 (Pictured) In addition to declaring martial law in four annexed regions, Putin has signed a decree announcing “Martial law readiness” across Russia. This does not mean actual martial law has been declared (Time stamp: 10:30pm EST)
🇺🇦 ‘Martial law’ talk is mostly legal theater used to justify Russian activities.
🇺🇦 It seems that nobody knows exactly where Putin is
🇺🇦 … this is fueling rumors that Putin is in a secret bunker right now
🇺🇦 A security source within the UK says that the nuclear threat from Russia has increased recently. However from an operational standpoint I have not seen any evidence that Russia is mobilizing their nuclear arsenal or has even begun preparation for such an action
🇺🇦 (Pictured) Russian commanders are selling “vacation” packages to their troops. They can spend a day in the rear for 15000 rubles
🇺🇦 Putin seized all of Exxon’s assets, and now Exxon has fully withdrawn from Russia
🇺🇦 Russians are fleeing Russia to ex-Soviet states in Central Asian, such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. People from these areas have traditionally felt the brunt of Russia’s racism or other biases, and hostility towards Russian draft dodgers is very high.
🇺🇦 Russia is targeting energy infrastructure across Ukraine with strikes. President Zelenskyy says his country is "under fire" and that 30% of power stations have been destroyed in October.
🇺🇦 Across Moscow, there are noticeably fewer males in restaurants, stores, and social gatherings.
🇺🇦 Fmr Vice President Mike Pence warned against the small-but-growing tide of pro-Putin politicians in American politics.
🇺🇦 Russia continues to use the guise of civilian “evacuations” as a cover for the mass forced removal of civilians from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
ℹ️ Russian Orthodox Church subplot
🇺🇦 The Russian Orthodox Church is buying up buildings in Norway with a view of military bases. In recent years, the Church has purchased several properties, one of them has a full view of the country's most important naval base, Haakonsvern.
ℹ️ Israeli subplot
🇺🇦 Negotiations between the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and Israel broke down. Israel cancelled the conversation with Minister of Defense Reznikov hours before it took place (Haaretz reporting)
🇺🇦 Israel defense minister Benny Gantz allegedly said: "I am the Minister of Defense and I am responsible for the export of Israeli weapons. I want to make it clear that we will not sell weapons to Ukraine" (I am seeking confirmation that he said this; all I see are reports that he said this) Update: I’ve confirmed the sentiment but can’t confirm the quote
🇺🇦 …that said, Israel has offered to help Ukraine with early warning defense system instead of weapons
🇺🇦 Russia redeployed troops from Syria to Ukraine, which lowers pressure on Israel.
ℹ️ Kherson
🇺🇦 A news blackout is under way in southern Ukraine - suggesting an imminent push from Kyiv.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are looting Kherson in a manner that seems they are preparing to flee.
🇺🇦 Occupied Kherson is deporting residents from the right bank of the Dnieper ahead of a Ukrainian advance. Signs are increasingly pointing to a Russian withdrawal from the city
🇺🇦 Russian state TV is preparing public opinion for a loss of Kherson
ℹ️ Inverted Demographics problem
🇺🇦 The war is hastening Russia’s demographics problem.
🇺🇦 Russia’s population is set for a historic decline as an aging population dies, the younger generation is less fertile, the young are dying in war, and the educated and well-off are fleeing
🇺🇦 Should military operations continue in the coming months, as expected, Russia may see less than 1.2 million births next year, the lowest in modern history. Total deaths in Russia average close to 2 million annually, though the number increased during the pandemic and approached 2.5 million last year.
🇺🇦 Russia’s demographics issue is so bad that just a few years ago Russia was paying people to take time off work to make babies
🇺🇦 In 2011, President Dmitri Medvedev was so worried about Russia’s shrinking citizenry that families that had a third child could get a plot of land from the Kremlin.
🇺🇦 For those just joining us, inverted populations mean no work force to support the country, which means certain economic collapse. Does anyone remember the Greece retirement crisis in 2015? Russia’s problem is like that, only an order of magnitude worse.
🇺🇦 The above is why Russia is forcibly deporting Ukrainian children to Russia.
🇺🇦 Opinion: This demographics issue will take a century to correct itself. First, Russia needs to wait for a time of peace and economic stability. Then they need a baby boom. Then they need to wait for those kids to grow up and have a baby boomlet. Then they need to attract foreign talent. If goldilocks conditions happen, then maybe they can correct their demographics crisis in 50 years.
ℹ️ Elon Musk subplot…because people keep asking for it!
🇺🇦 Journalist Philip Defranco says that Elon Musk saying he can no longer afford to run Starlink in Ukraine and that the Pentagon should foot the bill amounts to a taxpayer shakedown
🇺🇦 …with Elon claiming that he was doing this all out of pocket, but what he failed to mention is that the US, UK, and Poland were secretly paying for 85% of the satellites that Starlink provided and about 30% of the Internet bill
🇺🇦 One Pentagon official said, “He dangled hopes over the heads of millions then sticks the DOD with the bill for a system no one asked for, but now so many depend on.”
🇺🇦 Plus, one western intelligence official telling us “Musk is an idiot who is retaliating because no one liked his peace plan.”
🇺🇦 Some are suggesting the government may use the defense production act on SpaceX.
🇺🇦 Some are even arguing that the DOJ should open an investigation into Musk, saying he’s a defense contractor who has had private conversations with the leader of an enemy nation, and is now trying to extort Ukraine and the Pentagon.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom