🙈 CORRECTION: Yesterday, I said “US Special forces blew up a railway”. This was a HUGE autocorrect snafu. I wanted to write “UA” as in UA Special Forces blew up a railway. The United States does NOT have boots on the ground.
🇺🇦 First, the Pentagon came out and said the Russian effort appears to be stalling due to heavy battlefield losses. Then…
🇺🇦 British Defense Intelligence weighed in and said the Russians are only having small gains, at significant loss to troops and equipment.
🇺🇦 Russia had 125 battalions at the beginning of the war, now 92, and that includes all the new people they’ve brought in. A lot of these troops are completely burned out. As a result of the above…
🇺🇦 Dr Mike Martin, who is is a War Studies Visiting Fellow at King’s College London and a former British Army officer says…
🇺🇦 Russia efforts have fizzled. They pulled mauled units out of Kyiv, and then tried to reconstitute them for combat in the East.
🇺🇦 The Russians really had one chance - to build these units up - to build up a reserve, and then try to do some bold maneuver - and surround the Ukrainians in the East.
🇺🇦 Russia didn’t have anywhere near the 3:1 attackers to defenders ratio that is needed to invade, and so clever maneuvering was the only option they had. The Russians needed to clout not dribble…and they chose to dribble.
🇺🇦 Russia fed reconstituted units piecemeal into the front line - trying to fight a kind of attritional battle against the Ukrainians.
🇺🇦 The Russian ‘plan’ was grind UA down with artillery and then waves of infantry. WW2 tactics. The only problem is that style of warfare need loads of troops. Which the Russians don’t have. So the Russians squandered their one chance.
🇺🇦 Ukrainians on the other hand are doing the right tactics. They are dug in, and so artillery effects them less. And then they are withdrawing in good order, so that they can inflict maximum damage. They are trading space for enemy troops. Exactly the right tactics.
🇺🇦 The Russians are also so poorly trained that they are STILL sticking to main roads.
🇺🇦 Dr Mike Martin says we will see the Battle for Donbas culminate in maybe the next 2-4 weeks, as the Russians run out of troops, and the Ukrainians counterattack. And speaking of counterattacks…
🇺🇦 UK is pushing UA to take back Crimea through additional support. At the same time…
🇺🇦 The Biden admin has requested $33 billion to assist Ukraine. This means the US has moved out of damage control, and moved into full-on Russia defeat.
🇺🇦 It’s apparent US and NATO are not afraid of Russia’s nukes. I still assert that Russia does not have usable nukes. I’ll post more about this next week.
🇺🇦 TL;DR: experts say to give it 4 weeks and Donbas will be over. The BEST Russia can hope for at this point is a protracted war that drains their entire economy just to keep things at pre-Feb 23rd borders.
Actual operations:
🇺🇦 Russian forces likely intend to leave a minimal force in Mariupol necessary to block Ukrainian positions in Azovstal and are deploying as much combat power as possible elsewhere.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine, which secured only minor advances west of Severodonetsk and did not advance on the Izyum front in the last 24 hours.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian counterattacks in Kharkiv are unlikely to develop into a major counteroffensive but may force Russia to redeploy forces intended for the Izyum axis to hold their defensive positions around the city.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian intelligence continued to warn that Russian false flag attacks in Transnistria are intended to draw Transnistria into the war and coerce Moldova to abandon pro-European policies.
Other news:
🇺🇦 The Biden admin is working on ways to lure the Russian scientists that are fleeing Russia. Of all the war losses, I imagine this is the one will sting Putin the worst. From a psychological profile perspective, this will hurt Putin more than all of the sanctions combined.
🇺🇦 The pope asked Putin three times if the Vatican can bring a Vatican-flagged ship to Mariupol to get civilians out and three times Russia denied him
🏆 Thank you for today’s sourcing goes especially to Dr Mike Martin, the Institute for the Study of War, and John Aravosis.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, Philip DeFranco, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
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