Saturday, December 3
RU has lost 90,000 troops. Conscripts are freezing. Op tempo likely to pick back up in several weeks
🇺🇦 Russia has lost over 90,000 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24.
🇺🇦 EU makes final decision to cap Russian seaborne oil prices at $60 a barrel.
🇺🇦 Zelensky approves Security Council proposal on banning Moscow-backed church.
🇺🇦 The pace of operations has slowed due to deteriorating weather conditions
🇺🇦 Institute for the Study of War suggests the pace of operations is likely to increase in the next few weeks as temperatures drop and the ground freezes throughout the theater. Update: Conditions in eastern Ukraine are reportedly becoming more conducive for a higher pace of operations as winter sets in.
🇺🇦 Russian propagandists and government elites are getting worried about the possibility of losing the war to Ukraine and being tried at the Hague. They are lamenting this on air.
🇺🇦 The next Russian air strike may be imminent. Satellite images show an unusual amount of movement at an important Russian military airbase. Experts see "Engels-2" on heightened alert - and warn of a new heavy air attack on Ukraine.
🇺🇦 There is more evidence of International Legion forces being abused by Ukrainian commanders. Ukrainian commanders of the International Legion are accused of theft of western weapons.
🇺🇦 Starlink has nearly doubled prices in Ukraine since March.
🇺🇦 Putin has lost 6,000 troops in the past two weeks. By the time I post this, Russia will have exceeded 90,000 troop deaths
🇺🇦 The Biden admin is considering a dramatic expansion in the training the US military provides to Ukrainian forces, including instructing as many as 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers per month
🇺🇦 The Pentagon has awarded Raytheon $1.2 billion contract to provide NASAMS air defense system for Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Unverified reports say that Putin fell down stairs in his home and soiled himself. The reason people are talking about this is that the Telegram channels that posted it have links to Putin’s body guards. This is all unverified
🇺🇦 With over 2 billion euros in tax contributions in Poland. Ukrainian refugees paid almost as much taxes as Poland spent on helping Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Macron says West should consider security guarantees for Russia if Russia agreed to withdraw all forces. The idea is that the west would promise that NATO won’t invade if Russia withdrawals from Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Multiple Ukrainian embassies received blood-stained parcels with animal parts
🇺🇦 Russia is continuing to burn through its strategic missile stockpile, and now firing more and more new missiles, with some produced as late as August, according to Vadym Skibitsky, a representative of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate. Skibitsky said such assessment suggests that some missiles are being used "directly from the assembly line."
🇺🇦 Russian media said on Dec. 3 that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin would pay a visit to Russian-occupied Donbas without specifying when and where. “Putin will eventually visit Donbas” (Option: I doubt this)
🇺🇦 Russia harvested $1 billion worth of Ukrainian wheat in occupied territories.
🇺🇦 Independent Russian polling data indicates that Russian citizens still support Russia’s military operations in Ukraine despite growing war weariness over the past six months. The polls indicate that a shrinking but still significant portion of Russian citizens support
🇺🇦 Ukrainian authorities urge Kherson Oblast residents on east bank of Dnipro River to evacuate, anticipating “possible intensification of hospitilities” in Russian-occupied areas of Kherson
🇺🇦 The Russian and Belarusian Ministers of Defense met in Minsk likely to further strengthen bilateral security ties between Russia and Belarus.
🇺🇦 Low quality information: The Robert Lansing Institute released a report that said that Russia was plotting to assassinate Belarusian president Lukashenko and take over the Belarusian army. However, this information is super suspect because I can’t find any details on the “Robert Lansing Institute”
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. The Ukrainian “Carlson” volunteer special air intelligence unit posted footage on December 3 of Ukrainian servicemen traversing the Dnipro River in boats, reaching a wooden marina-like structure on the east bank, and raising a Ukrainian flag on a tower toward near the shore.
🇺🇦 Unrelated to Ukraine, America just unveiled the B-21 Raider, a sixth-generation global precision attack platform. The B-21 is smaller than the B-2, it can reach any target in the world, and can fly autonomously. Not only is it undetectable by enemy radar, but it can also spoof radar. They are on budget and on schedule, because they used digital engineering to iterating in thousands of designs. America is currently looking at purchasing 100 aircraft
⚠️Trigger warning:⚠️ There are a bunch of OSINT videos going around showing Russian troops freezing to death. In one, a dozen or so troops are huddled in a fox hole for warmth… a UA drone drops a grenade in the middle of them and none of them move. What usually happens in videos like this is people are injured and they crawl away. Instead, when the grenade explodes, a few moments later, a few are motivated to move…but they don’t run away, they crawl even closer together for warmth. This is evidence of hypothermia. Many Russian troops were deployed with no winter gear, no tents, and no sleeping bags. There are more and more of these videos. ⚠️More trigger warning⚠️In another video, a Russian troop crawls out of a personal fox hole and goes and checks on his buddies, many of them don’t respond. ⚠️In another video, a Russian soldier tries to k!ll himself inferno of a Ukrainian drone. But his hand is blue from hypothermia and he struggles to pull the trigger. He is d3ad by the time the grenade lands near him. (Every Russian death is a tragedy for Russia’s society. I hope the Russian people rebel, achieve peace & self governance, and form long-lasting ties with the west)
ℹ️ RUSI report subplot
🇺🇦 The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is UK’s leading defense and security think tank. They wrote a report on Russia’s invasion plans based on captured orders.
🇺🇦 Russia planned to invade Ukraine over a 10-day period and thereafter occupy the country to enable annexation by late summer.
🇺🇦 The Russian plan presupposed that speed, and the use of deception to keep Ukrainian forces away from Kyiv, could enable the rapid seizure of the capital. To this end, Russians achieved a 12:1 force ratio advantage north of Kyiv.
🇺🇦 However, the operational security that enabled the successful deception led Russian forces to be unprepared at the tactical level to execute. As a result, when speed failed to produce the desired results, Russian forces found their positions steadily degraded as Ukraine mobilized.
🇺🇦 Russian counterintelligence had prepared lists of UA citizens to be:
1) Physically liquidated = murdered
2) Intimidated and suppressed = imprisoned or threatened
3) Neutrals who could be induced to collaborate
4) Collaborators
🇺🇦 The plan was to murder Ukraine executive branch (president Zelenskyi and the government) and imprison the parliament. Pro-Russia parliamentarians would form a "Movement for Peace".
🇺🇦 Nuclear power plants were planned to function as secure bases, depots, and command centers, to control energy in Ukraine and to threaten Europe countries. We’ve seen them enacting this plan
🇺🇦 Putin directed the intent for these orders, and a very small group of officials drew them up. Many officials were unaware of the plan to invade and were informed only days before. Tactical units were only notified hours before. Tactical units literally thought they were on training exercises.
🇺🇦 …Interestingly enough, while most Russian officials didn’t know, American intelligence knew as early as October 2021.
ℹ️ Middle East subplot
🇺🇦 Turkey has been a NATO ally since 1952
🇺🇦 The Kurds fought side by side with American forces to fight off Russia, the Syrian regime. and ISIS. (That’s over simplifying; feel free to add detail in the comments)
🇺🇦 There is an ongoing armed conflict between the Kurds and Turkey
🇺🇦 Turkey is preparing for a ground invasion of Syria to attack Kurdish fighters.
🇺🇦 Russia is allied with the Syrian regime
And this is all relevant because:
🇺🇦 Turkey is negotiating with Russia to help their invasion.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
Below: Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's former Deputy Prime Minister for Defence and Space Industry, is taking heavy criticism from Russian milbloggers for posing in an occupied region of Ukraine carrying and wearing NATO military clothing and weapons.
Mossad's calculation looks a bit different
https://hurseda.net/gundem/246987-iddia-mossad-a-gore-ukrayna-ve-rusya-kayiplari.html