ℹ️ General updates
🇺🇦 Pictured: Ukrainian forces have liberated half of the territory that Russia occupied since February 24, 2022. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov credited Western security assistance for this. This map shows the maximum extent of liberated territories (in blue). Credit: Institute for the Study of War
🇺🇦 Russia is killing its own soldiers with drones to prevent them from surrendering. These incidents have been recorded multiple times, with footage captured with Ukraine’s drones.
🇺🇦 Russia is doing this as a reaction to the fact that there are quite a few people willing to surrender to Ukrainian captivity.
🇺🇦 Rodents are infesting military equipment on both sides. We’re talking scores of rodents that spill out when engines are cranked. The cause is rodents seeking warmth while also their natural habitat being destroyed by war. While this is likely affecting Ukrainian equipment also, this came to light with a viral video posted by a Russian soldier.
🇺🇦 Russian society seems eager to engage in discussions about the outcome of the war in Ukraine, notwithstanding the Kremlin’s growing reluctance to hold public discourse about it
🇺🇦 Ukrainian partisans conducted an attack in occupied Luhansk City on December 6 that killed Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) People’s Council Deputy Oleg Popov.
🇺🇦 Russia is stepping up attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
🇺🇦 Zelensky signed four laws that are required for EU accession. Three of these laws are focused on corruption
🇺🇦 I found out today that it takes up to 24 hours for radar data to get to the front line
🇺🇦 It takes 3-5 days for ISR data to get to the front line.
🇺🇦 Western militaries are running out of ammunition for Ukraine, prompting NATO and British officials to call for increased production to support Ukraine
🇺🇦 Ukraine uses 240,000 shells a month, a figure far higher than U.S. monthly production rates.
🇺🇦 U.S. stocks of 155mm rounds that were originally meant for Ukraine are now being shipped to Israel. The number of rounds were in the “tens of thousands”
🇺🇦 Ukrainian troops regularly report ammo shortages across the front lines, even in hotspots like the country’s east.
ℹ️ Putin is counting on the US caving on Ukraine
🇺🇦 Ukraine has failed to make a decisive breakthrough in its counter-offensive over the summer, which has silenced optimistic predictions of a quick victory. If the west fails to support Ukraine, Ukraine won’t have the means to defend itself.
🇺🇦 Concerns for Ukraine rose after the absence of funds for Ukrainian weapons in the US Congress stopgap spending bill three weeks ago.
🇺🇦 On Dec 6, the U.S. senate has blocked an aid bill for Ukraine. “Any hopes of getting a bill passed this week were dashed when tempers boiled over at a classified briefing on the war in Ukraine and senators got into a shouting match over border security“ Basically, Senate Republicans want to tie Ukraine funding to changes in U.S. border policy.
🇺🇦 Blinken announced “one of the last” defense aid packages “unless Congress passes” further funding. This aid package is worth $175 million
ℹ️ Meanwhile…
🇷🇺 Russia is using its country’s strong oil revenues to militarize the Russian economy, which has led to significant increase in weapons production.
🇷🇺 Russian oil revenues continue rise due to Russian efforts to skirt the G7 price cap on Russian crude oil and petroleum products.
🇷🇺 Russia’s economy grew rapidly in 2023, thanks mainly to militarization.
🇷🇺 Russians are paying for the surge in military production as inflation reaches 7.5 percent. Amid indications of an overheating economy, a slowdown or perhaps even a recession is expected in 2024.
🇷🇺 Western sanctions sent Russia into a recession after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but the economy has bounced back, outperforming forecasts
🇷🇺 However, these economic indicators may be capturing a post-pandemic recovery rather than sustainable development.
🇷🇺 Shortages of industrial capacity and labor will also limit Russia’s manufacturing development. More than 85 percent of companies In Russia are experiencing staff shortages, and skilled workers are the most scarce of all. Unemployment is 2.9% as a result of staff shortages
🇷🇺 While the war remains the government’s top priority, this means less funding for developing Russia’s human capital through spending on education, healthcare, and other civilian issues.
🇷🇺 Putin has delayed mobilization ahead of Russia’s 2024 election
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 Every Russian death is a tragedy. I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom. Edit: but maybe not with Prigozhin? Edit: Nope, definitely not Prigozhin
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news.
#RazPutin targets his own to boost his political standing ahead of his failed March 2024 election. C=> https://www.patreon.com/posts/95566743 #GotDavidOblest?