Saturday, February 4
Russia is preparing for a major new offensive likely by the end of February
🇺🇦 Moscow is going to mobilize 500,000 people to prepare for a new offensive in Ukraine, Ukrainian Military Intelligence spokesman Vadym Skibitskyi
🇺🇦 In early January, Skibitskyi said it would take Russia about two months to assemble the military formations, and their battlefield effectiveness would depend on how well-equipped and trained they are. When he made this statement, this would imply a new offensive will occur in late February.
🇺🇦 As February is now here, the above statement seems to be true. Evidence suggests Russia is planning to launch a repeated major offensive on the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine on Feb. 24. This is according to Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov.
🇺🇦 “We do not underestimate our enemy,” Reznikov said. “Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more.”
🇺🇦 Evidence suggests the offensive will be a three-pronged attack from the east and south as well as Belarus, for the purpose of encircling Kyiv from the west.
ℹ️ Regular updates:
🇺🇦 Guerrillas in the Luhansk destroyed a railway supply line for Russia
🇺🇦 Russian soldiers are upset by how locals in occupied territories treat them
🇺🇦 US and Ukrainian officials report that Russian artillery fire is down 75%. No clear explanation. CNN reporting
🇺🇦 There is a sudden surge in Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea
🇺🇦 Wagner is now recruiting incarcerated Ukrainians who were forced into Russian prisons
🇺🇦 Russia is losing 500-600 soldiers per day. Ukraine is losing “ a tenth of that”. This is according to Ukraine’s Defense minister, and the numbers are difficult to verify
🇺🇦 100 Ukrainian soldiers arrived at the Fort Sill base in Oklahoma in January to begin training on the Patriot system. The Pentagon developed an accelerated training program for them.
🇺🇦 Russia is placing Pantsirs air defense systems in 2 defensive circles in Moscow.
🇺🇦 Estonia and Russia expelled each other’a ambassadors. Possibly related, Estonia will give Ukraine ALL of its 155mm howitzers
🇺🇦 Old news now, but the US confirmed that the United States will deliver 31 M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Ukraine sank five Russian boats carrying recon and sabotage teams. This happened within a 24 hour time period at the end of January. A total of 18 Russian warships and other vessels have been destroyed by the Ukrainian military since the full scale invasion began last February
🇺🇦 The Biden admin announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3. This package includes:
precision long-range missiles for HIMARS
Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDM), increasing HIMARS range to 151km
Javelin anti-armor systems, two HAWK air defense firing units
Regular HIMARS ammunition, 120mm mortar and 155mm artillery rounds
🇺🇦 Putin is cracking down on Russian milbloggers who are critical of how Russia’s military is performing. This is interesting because these people represent his most devout base and are extremely pro-Russian, no matter what Russia does.
ℹ️ Losses subplot
🇺🇦 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley: “The Russian casualties — last time I reported out on it publicly, I said it was well over 100,000. I would say it's significantly well over 100,000 now”
🇺🇦 ...and he’s right. The New York Times reports that the number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, according to American and other Western officials
🇺🇦 Increase in Western estimates between November 2022 and January 2023 may reflect adjustment in estimate rather than new casualties
ℹ️ CIA director warned Zelensky subplot
🇺🇦 Through the end of 2021, Mr Zelensky’s attitude towards the US warnings of Russian invasion was to push back on them and suggest the US was risking panic and negative effects on the Ukrainian economy.
🇺🇦 Due to a lack of seriousness from Ukraine, the Biden administration began routinely disclosing Russian plans to reporters and foreign governments
🇺🇦 Biden tasked the CIA director — a former US Ambassador to Russia — with providing Mr Zelensky with “precise details of the Russian plots”.
🇺🇦 The director of the Central Intelligence Agency travelled to Kyiv in order to inform Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of a Russian plan to assassinate him. "This immediately got Zelensky's attention; he was taken aback, sobered by this news.” At that point, Ukraine started to take the invasion seriously.
🇺🇦 Zelensky has survived more than 12 separate attempts on his life by Russian forces since the war began last February. At least two of those attempts were thwarted due to US intelligence shared during that visit to Kyiv. "The intelligence was so detailed that it would help Zelensky's security forces thwart two separate Russian attempts on his life”
ℹ️ China fears Russia is becoming a “minor power” subplot
🇺🇦 Beijing is planning to reorient its foreign policy away from Moscow due to fears of a decline in Russia's economic and political clout as a result of its invasion of Ukraine
🇺🇦 Beijing is assuming Putin's eventual downfall
🇺🇦 Reports indicate that mistrust towards Putin is growing among the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party
🇺🇦 Anonymous Chinese official quoted by the FT as saying, "The invasion decision was made by a very small group of people. China shouldn’t simply follow Russia,” “Putin is crazy.”
🇺🇦 China was reportedly not aware of Kremlin's plan to launch a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, and expect limited military operation at most.
🇺🇦 Putin informed Xi during a meeting in Feb. 4, 2022, that Russia would not rule out taking whatever measures possible if eastern Ukrainian attack Russian territory and cause humanitarian disasters.
🇺🇦 Beijing's failure to obtain accurate intelligence on Putin's plans resulted in the demotion of China's then-vice-minister of foreign affairs and top Russia expert Le Yucheng, according to the FT.
🇺🇦 Anonymous Chinese officials believe that the Kremlin's goals in Ukraine are doomed to failure, and that Russia will emerge from the conflict as a "minor power."
🇺🇦 Beijing sees its closeness to Putin as a useful bargaining chip in its relationship with Europe
🇺🇦 Beijing hopes to profit from the post-war reconstruction boom in Ukraine.
ℹ️ Why Bahkmut? subplot
🇺🇦 Reader Steve S commented that Bahkmut is puzzling, since it offers no strategic value. The answer is that Bahkmut is home to the largest salt mine in Europe, as well as a very rich gypsum mine. As we’ve seen multiple times during this war, the moment Russia takes over an area, they immediately steal its resources. Most notably, Russia stole 4+ million tons of grain (which they sent home and sold to allies), stole an entire nuclear facility for it’s energy use, stole children to solve their demographics problems, and of course, stole every bit of home appliance they could find.
🇺🇦 Russian troops in the Bahkmut region are being led by the Wagner Group, a private military force founded by Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin
🇺🇦 US intelligence says that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin wants to control salt and gypsum from mines near Bakhmut. This is widely reported by main stream news, citing the White House.
🇺🇦 Yes, Bahkmut, the meat grinder, where hundreds of drafted Russians got dropped off and k1lled every day, is being fought not for a strategic value, but because an oligarch wants the salt any gypsum mines
🇺🇦 Jan 13: The Wagner Group appears to have gained control over the greater part of Soledar, a salt-mining town just north of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region
🇺🇦 Russia claimed credit for taking Soledar, and Wagner’s chief, Prigozhin, was quick to publicly refute this and take credit. “I read with surprise the report of the Ministry of Defense….There was not a single paratrooper on Soledar, the paratroopers themselves confirm this. Soledar was taken solely by the efforts of the fighters of the Wagner PMC.”
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian army is successfully defending the Artemsol facility, the largest salt-mining site in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the nearby high-rise buildings in the northern section of Soledar.
🇺🇦 Earlier I stated that Russia is losing 500-600 troops per day. This is due to Wagner’s prisoner recruits in Bahkmut
🇺🇦 By the way, in December 2022, Wagner Group had 50,000 soldiers, made up of 10k regular soldiers, and 40k convicts.
🇺🇦 And by the way, Wagner is now recruiting female convicts, who are already being sent to the front.
🇺🇦 Update: It seems that due to Prigozhin’s public disagreements with the head of General Staff, Wagner has have been cut off from artillery support. This means they are suffering heavier loses and haven’t taken Soledar
🇺🇦 Update: it appears that Wagner is purposefully pushing mobilized prisoners forward in an attempt to deplete Ukrainian ammunition and expose Ukrainian positions
🇺🇦 Feb 4 Update: over 80% of the Wagner Group's 40,000 convict volunteers are dead or missing
🇺🇦 Bahkmut is still contested as of today, Sat Feb 4, 2023
ℹ️ Bradley fighting vehicles (Thanks to Jeff and his former commander)
🇺🇦 As mentioned in the last update, the US is providing Ukraine with Bradley Fighting Vehicles as part of an upcoming tranche of weapons and ammunition.
🇺🇦 The transfer of these armored vehicles will improve Ukraine's tactical capabilities and establish advanced logistical, maintenance, and repair capabilities for future deliveries.
🇺🇦 The Bradley Fighting Vehicle is equipped with a 25mm Bushmaster chain gun and can hold two Tube-Launched, Optically Tracked, Wire Guided (TOW) anti-tank missiles. It has a coaxially mounted machine gun.
🇺🇦 The transfer of these vehicles follows announcements by French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz to provide Ukraine with their own advanced armored vehicles.
🇺🇦 The provision of these vehicles to Ukraine may escalate tensions with Russia.
🇺🇦 It is relatively easy to maintain and has a smooth ride over rough terrain, making it well-suited for combat situations.
🇺🇦 Its mobility and armaments make it a valuable asset for the Ukrainian military in their conflict with Russia.
🇺🇦 While some may argue that Ukraine needs tanks like the German Leopards or American Abrams, the Bradley is a more practical choice in the short-term as it requires fewer logistics to maintain and transport.
🇺🇦 Providing Ukraine with Bradleys will help them develop the logistics networks needed to maintain more advanced vehicles in the future.
ℹ️ That damn Chinese balloon subplot
From what I’ve been able to gather….and subject to a lot of revision once this is all settled…
🇺🇸 The US military spotted the balloon while it was still far off the coast of Alaska. They likely weren't going to say anything about it because it didn't pose a threat and it was to our advantage to know about it and let them continue thinking their methods were smart and sneaky...like when my kids try to sneak up on me while they giggle like cartoon characters
🇺🇸 When passengers on an airplane saw it, the military was forced to say something about it
🇨🇳China at first denied it, but when [some event I don't know] occurred, China started communicating with America, cooperating in every discussion. Lots of open communication happened
🇨🇳 China continued to assert that it's just a weather balloon that went off course; no one really believes this.
🇨🇳 It has multiple methods of control, such as lowering and raising to catch wind, and shifting left and right
🇺🇸 Biden wanted to shoot it down immediately, but the military pushed back. The excuse was because of debris, but that’s likely not the real reason. The military likely pushed back because most of the world has spy assets above each other's countries and they didn't want this unspoken 'gentlemen's agreement' to be broken. This may cause problems for the US military. This reminds me of Cold War spy v spy. We would catch Russians in our bases quit frequently, and we returned them, to ensure that Russia would return our spies when they routinely caught ours. The moment we start executing them, they would start executing us.
🇺🇸 I personally believe--with no fact backing me up--that they only shot it down because it became a public issue
🇺🇸 I’m not an expert on Chinese balloons so don’t roast me if revisions need to happen in the future, this is only what I’ve been able to gather from my usual sources, who also aren’t Chinese balloon experts
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom