🇺🇦 Ukraine deliberately withdrew from Lysychansk which has resulting in Russia seizing the city.
🇺🇦 Geolocated footage shows Russian forces casually walking around northern and southeastern neighborhoods in Lysychansk
🇺🇦 Russian forces will likely establish control over the remaining territory of Luhansk Oblast in coming days
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground assaults north of Slovyansk.
🇺🇦 Opinion: Despite Russia taking Lysychansk, it seems that the lines have settled. While it doesn’t seem that Russia has culminated yet, they don’t seem to have the power to break though any more.
🇺🇦 Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has announced that he’s forming a special battalion to fight in Ukraine, and is trying to rally 4 more battalions.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian border guards found a hard drive containing over 1000 gigabytes of Russian military data, which included personnel data, equipment data, and deployment data
🇺🇦 The Russian military has seized the Kahkovka reservoir, and is now stealing Ukrainian water and sending it to Crimea
🇺🇦 Only 5% of Mariupol residents have access to *any* water.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin is setting conditions for broader mobilization of their economy to sustain the war effort. Remember, this was supposed to be a three-day war.
🇺🇦 UK PM Boris Johnson warned about “Ukraine fatigue” setting in that would prevent people from continuing to support Ukraine.
🇺🇦 While yes, I’ve noticed that UA is not the prime dinner table topic anymore, both polling and material support indicate that support for Ukraine remains strong, and that this is bolstered by public support.
🇺🇦 Here’s the thing, there just aren’t that many battle field breakthroughs right now. It’s not like that high-drama of the first few weeks. The lines have mostly settled.
🇺🇦 However, what might be bad news as a representative analogous…
🇺🇦 The days of updates once every 48 hours is coming, so just be prepared!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!