🇺🇦 Pictured: Thanks Michael G
🇺🇦 The Israel Defense Forces carried out several airstrikes on targets near Damascus, destroying an Iranian drone assembly plant.
🇺🇦 This is relevant because Iran has pledged to supply Russia with drones, and a Russian delegation has visited Iran at least twice to learn about the capabilities of combat drones Shahed 191 and Shahed 129 drones. These were the likely factories that would have produced drones for Russia
🇺🇦 British Foreign Minister Liz Truss said that with every attack by Russia on Ukrainian cities, Great Britain would provide more aid to Ukraine (that statement is likely more symbolic)
🇺🇦 UA forces appear to have launched a counter-offensive in Kherson.
An unspecified senior US defense official stated that Ukrainian forces have recaptured unspecified “portions of Russian-occupied villages” in Kherson over the past week.
🇺🇦 It appears that parts of northern occupied Kherson may now be cut off from Russian supplies of heavy weapons and armored vehicles.
🇺🇦 Russia is asking for a “green corridor” to evacuate encircled troops north of Kherson. While an acceptable request, we all knew what happened when Ukraine asked for a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians.
🇺🇦 …at the same time, Russian troops delivered ammunition to Kherson Oblast under guise of humanitarian aid. Over 20 trucks with ammunition and other heavy weaponry drove to the oblast under the pretext of civilian cargo.
🇺🇦 News about UA’s counter-offensive in Kherson will likely lag behind events.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan stated on July 23 that Ukrainian forces have seized unspecified settlements in Kherson Oblast but called on Ukrainian civilians to remain silent on the progress of the counteroffensive until Ukrainian authorities release official statements.
🇺🇦 Additionally, the area between the front line and Kherson City is rural and primarily composed of small settlements that are less likely to report on force movements and engagements, allowing control-of-terrain in this area to change without evidence appearing in open-source reporting.
🇺🇦 The U.S. and its Western allies are evaluating the possibility of delivering 25-30 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) to Ukraine
🌾Late last night, I posted that Russia had signed an agreement to allow grain passage through Black Sea. This morning I woke up to news that Russia had already violated the agreement by striking Odesa.
🇺🇦 3.7 million Ukrainian refugees receive temporary protection status in EU.
🇺🇦 Zelensky spoke with a US House of Representatives delegation and said “No matter what Russia promises, it will find ways not to implement it.” As we’ve seen from multiple updates tonight, there is a lot of evidence to support this claim.
🇺🇦 The State Bureau of Investigations reported that the former Security Council deputy secretary, Volodymyr Sivkovych is suspected of high treason for working for the Russian intelligence services and managing a network of agents in Ukraine that spied for Russia.
🇺🇦 Germany has delayed weapons delivery to Ukraine.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
Quality meme, sir