🇺🇦 Russia has lost 222 aircraft since Feb 24. Today, Ukraine’s military shot down Russian a Sukhoi-25 aircraft. The aircraft was shot down with a 9K38 Igla man-portable air-defense system in Donetsk Oblast.
🇺🇦 Sure, I’m feeling lucky, pictured here is an Su-25.
🇺🇦 The Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that it had destroyed two ammunition depots, an Orlan-10 UAV, two strongholds, up to twenty units of armored combat vehicles, and dozens of Russian troops on July 30.
🇺🇦 Resistance subplot: Luhansk partisans damaged the railway near the city of Svatove, which reportedly was used to supply Russian troops with ammunition.
🇺🇦 I don’t know what subplot this goes under, but: Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained a Kyiv resident who has allegedly helped 20 men of draft age to flee the country.
🇺🇦 The S&P has downgraded Ukraine’s credit rating, as default is a “virtual certainty”
🇺🇦 The UA government will start mandatory evacuations of Donetsk. There are 200,000 civilians which must be evacuated.
🇺🇦 …If someone refuses to evacuate Donetsk, they will have to sign a document taking responsibility for the risks.
🇺🇦 Famers continue to be on the receiving end of hostilities. In the most recent example, a combine harvester hit an anti-tank mine in a field near Kharkiv. The driver survived.
🇺🇦 Belarusians are fleeing and getting kicked out of Ukraine en masse as a result of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko siding with Russia in its war. Belarusians (BLR) in Ukraine were displaced political refugees who arrived in Ukraine to get away from BLR’s crackdowns and repressions. There is a major anti-BLR sentiment in Ukraine due to Lukashenko, but (personal note) I wish the people fleeing Lukashenko weren’t being punished in Ukraine for his actions.
🇺🇦 Note: while Belarusians are being “kicked out,” this is not official Ukrainian law or policy.
Olenivka subplot:
🇺🇦 Pictured: Overview of damaged buildings in the Olenivka POW facility. Source: Maxar Technologies
🇺🇦 After yesterday’s “execution” of Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka, Members of UK’s parliament demand the Russian embassy be expelled from the UK.
🇺🇦 The UN ready to investigate attack the aforementioned attack on Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka. “In connection with the recent tragedy in the Olenivka prison, we are ready to send a team of experts capable of conducting an investigation with the permission of the parties," said Farhan Haq, deputy spokesman of the United Nations Secretary-General, said, as cited by a Russian state news agency.
🇺🇦 Additionally, the Russian Embassy tweeted that Azov soldiers "deserve execution, but death not by firing squad but by hanging.” — Azov soldiers were the ones in the Ukrainian POW camp.
Operations:
🇺🇦 Mykolaiv is undergoing massive shelling.
🇺🇦 Russian troops shelled the Sumy Oblast. No casualties reported.
🇺🇦 Russian military shelled Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with Uragan rocket launchers.
🇺🇦 Russian troops seized a shipyard in occupied Kherson.
🇺🇦 Russian forces storm village near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.
🇺🇦 Russia’s blockage of UA food exports continues to exacerbate global food insecurity.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are prioritizing offensive operations toward Bakhmut and around Donetsk City at the expense of efforts to take Siversk and Slovyansk.
🇺🇦 Russian commanders are seeking to exploit recent gains in the Novoluhanske area to pressure Bakhmut from the east.
Big brother subplot:
🇺🇦 The US will supply NASAMS air defense systems to Ukraine. No specifics
🇺🇦 Ukraine receives $5 million from Qatar for medical aid.
🇺🇦 Poland is ready to hand over 8 AHS Krab howitzers to Ukraine. This is within the contract for 60 howitzers signed with Ukraine in June. The first 18 AHS Krab howitzers were delivered to Ukraine in May.
🇺🇦 Norway donates 14 armored patrol vehicles to Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Lithuania will provide more military aid for Ukraine: 10 more M113 APCs and packages of explosives and smoke grenades
☝️Ukraine, I hope you’re thankful that all of your big brothers decided to show up
☝️ (I know you are, just sayin)
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
Was hoping you’d report on the torture castrations and deaths of POWs by Russians. Someone needs to call attention to it sadly. https://www.facebook.com/100001725404228/posts/pfbid0GCRarUzNr6xX6LQNbBTTarHYRsyRL7kBNmHp6Yf9Bz2KpJ5rqSG7fCWJ4gNEpJFBl/?d=n
https://www.facebook.com/100007487710415/posts/pfbid02MrpRUgaX2FefHoJQELCc5LAXTMmxNU3Qc5cHKTFM3mPhunpHSr5XM5QBxR3WHhNAl/?d=n