Saturday, July 9
Russia is closing in on 40k losses…which is an insane number for a 135-day conflict. Also, Kherson is coming into play
🇺🇦 Pictured: Another failed river crossing. RU losses are judged as “serious.”
🇺🇦 Pictured: Russia is closing in on 40k losses…which is an insane number for a 135-day conflict.
🇺🇦 Detail: UA forces engaged a Russian crossing of the Donets north of Bilohorivka. They were destroyed by UA artillery.
🇺🇦 Residents of Kherson Oblast are urged to prepare shelters to ''survive the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine''
🇺🇦 Russia is trying to establish a police force in occupied Kherson using local inhabitants. However, they can’t find enough willing people to make a police force.
🇺🇦 (Kherson is the place where resistance fighters are stabbing hundreds of Russians occupiers and blowing up collaborators and putting up all those posters saying things like ‘Watch out, we know your routes’)
📞 Intercepted calls show Russians are complaining about not getting paid for their combat injuries as promised
📞 Intercepted calls show Russians are surprised by the quality of Ukrainian clothing. They actively search for UA soldiers’ socks
🇺🇦 Russia has no defense against HIMARS systems
🇺🇦 There exist Ukrainian kleptocrats who are using the war to entrench corruption. They’re the ones Ukraine must get rid of before Ukraine can join the EU or other western alliances. The good news is that the invasion of Ukraine seems to have been a wake up call for most Ukrainians.
🇺🇦 Russia is deliberately setting fire to Ukraine’s grain fields
🇺🇦 Ukrainian grain is a big problem. Russia destroying, stealing, or halting Ukrain food exports is now affecting 323 MILLION people.
🇺🇦 You and I are being affected. Our food costs are going way up. Some of us—like me—sometimes swipe with credit cards and don’t immediately noticed the costs, but if you look at the price of bread, it’s definitely gone up because of the war.
🇺🇦 The Russian occupation government in Kharkiv Oblast unveiled a new flag for the occupation regime in Kharkiv Oblast containing the Russian imperial double-headed eagle and symbols from the 18th century Kharkiv coat of arms.
🇺🇦 Moscow doesn’t have the ability to compel Telegram to delete or control milbloggers content, which is critical of Russia.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin faces challenges directly censoring pro-Russian milbloggers and war correspondents but will likely continue to look for opportunities to promote self-censorship.
🇺🇦 Russia’s milbloggers are explicitly pro-war and patriotic, often ultra-nationalist, with large followings concentrated among Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key supporters. These were the people Putin has supported and empowered over the past 6+ years, and these are the people who are turning critical of Putin, or at least the war. Now Putin can’t threaten or suppress them because he relies on them for key messaging.
🇺🇦 Not much operational updates due to the operational pause, due to RU’s supply chain being wrecked by HIMARS
🇺🇦 Russian forces continue to face personnel and equipment shortages, relying on old armored personnel carriers and launching new recruitment campaigns.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued localized attacks northwest of Kharkiv City, likely in an effort to defend Russian ground lines of communication
🇺🇦 Yesterday I mentioned that the % of cost is negligible. A military planner colleague colored this in, and it’s open information, so I wanted to do it justice and share it: For the most part, the equipment we are giving UA is equipment we have new or upgraded from so it would have been foreign military sales at some point anyway. This way we don’t waste money maintaining or storing it. The equipment we are giving to UA is really a negligible amount of money. (Thank RB)
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!