ℹ️ Civil War, main focus (old news, now)
🇺🇦 Many reports of Russian forces joining Wagner forces
🇺🇦 Pictured: Visual confirmation confirms Voronezh, Russia, has fallen to Wagner insurgent forces. There is no resistance. (Vertical oriented picture)
🇺🇦 Russia sent multiple helicopters to stop Wagner, and at least three were shot down.
🇺🇦 Wagner equipment has been verified moving across territory in the southern Russian region of Lipetsk, according to the region's governor, Igor Artamonov.
🇺🇦 Geolocated video confirms the above.
🇺🇦 Russian newspapers confirm Russian forces are taking positions in Southern Moscow.
🇺🇦 Pictured: Yesterday, some reports and picture evidence suggest that Rostovian locals welcomed Wagner with open arms, as if Russia was an occupying force and Wagner liberated them (Thanks, Jared)
🇺🇦 Institute for the Study of War believes this rebellion will not be successful.
ℹ️ More background
🇺🇦 It seems that Wagner’s units have planned some time for this. The justification for this rebellion was urgent and spontaneous, caused by an air strike on a Wagner camp in the forest, which the Russian Ministry of Defense has denied – appeared hours after Prigozhin made a public statement condemning the justification for the war.
🇺🇦 Wagner assembled and moved quickly, suggesting they were planning for this, and that the air strike was done because Russia knew a rebellion was forming. (Assuming Russia was responsible for this)
🇺🇦 The justification for the rebellion was the above air strike. However, Institute for the Study of War cannot verify the veracity of the video. This could very well have been manufactured for informational purposes. The video was posted on a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel, and amplified by Prigozhin.
🇺🇦 Yesterday before this all unfolded, Prigozhin made a remarkable dissection of the rationale behind the war, in a public statement that the invasion of Ukraine was based on lies and condemns military leaders (Concord Press Service, via Reuters).
🇺🇦 In this video he said Russia was not under attack from NATO and that Russians were not being persecuted.
ℹ️ The West, subplot
🇺🇦 It seems the west was taken by surprise by Prigozhin’s rapid escalation.
🇺🇦 Opinion: This runs counter to my assumption, which is that the west knew rebellion was fomenting, and was working to encourage it
🇺🇦 Western officials have been careful not to weigh in on this conflict
🇺🇦 The west is afraid Putin will weaponize this rebellion to consolidate power
🇺🇦 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s office confirmed that the US has held emergency meetings with officials from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and the European Union.
ℹ️ 2:00pm Eastern Update: Wagner is ceasing its advance on Moscow
🇺🇦 Russia has guaranteed Prigozhin’s safety in exchange for a cease of hostilities
🇺🇦 The fighters of the Wagner private army were just 200 km (125 miles) from the capital, when Prigozhin decided to turn back to avoid bloodshed.
🇺🇦 Up until now, there was no Russian-on-Russian bloodshed. It appears Prigozhin came to the point where fighting would start, and he wasn’t ready to fire on Russia. "Realizing our responsibility for the (possible) spilling of Russian blood from one of the sides, we are withdrawing our columns (marching on Moscow) and going back in the opposite direction to field camps according to our plan," Prigozhin said.
🇺🇦 The insurrection case against Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin will be closed, and he will move to Belarus, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on June 24.
🇺🇦 Wagner mercenaries who took part in the insurrection would not be prosecuted
🇺🇦 This deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
🇺🇦 Wagner fighters will return to their bases and sign contracts with the Russian military after all
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 Every Russian death is a tragedy. I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom. Edit: but maybe not with Prigozhin?
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news.
What a day . . . !