Saturday, May 14

Ukraine has won the battle of Kharkiv. Russia has exhausted all of its combat-ready battalions

🇺🇦 Pictured: Siverskyi Donets River battle, reportedly after the third crossing attempt. As I reported yesterday, Russia tried a third time to cross the Siverskyi Donets River. However, instead of building a bridge, they just tried to cross the bottom of the river.

🇺🇦 10 tanks and 2 APCs are now stuck at the bottom of the river. Just turrets sticking up.

🇺🇦 Ironically, one BREM-1 tank recovery vehicle made it across! (It was then destroyed by artillery) 

🇺🇦 Pictured: Details of the Siverskyi Donets River battle, after the first two crossings. (Credit: @plane_b_actual, instagram)

🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces prevented Russian troops from encircling Kharkiv, expelled them from around the city, then pushed them back to the border. Russia has decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv in the face of limited available reinforcements. 

🇺🇦 Russian troops continued efforts to advance along the periphery of Izyum-to-Donetsk but made little progress.

🇺🇦 The main Russian effort continues to be the attempt to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north and from the south. 

🇺🇦 Russian forces have likely secured the highway near the western entrance to the Azovstal Steel Plant but fighting for the facility continues. Anyone remember when I said Azovstal would fall in hours, like, two months ago?

🇺🇦 The latest suggestion that Putin has a terminal condition comes from a recording of an oligarch claiming Putin has ‘blood cancer.’ This is likely low quality information, but it’s part of an avalanche of speculation that he is not well. 

🇺🇦 There is a noticeable trend of US Military Veterans dropping everything to train Ukrainians. 

🇺🇦 Major General Kyrylo Budanov of UA Intelligence spoke with Sky News, and seemed to hint that there’s a coup underway. Sky News took the ball and ran with it, describing a coup plot that’s been launched and is in process.

🇺🇦 Pictured: If you look at Russian soldier deaths per capita, Moscow is contributing the least. Moscow has 10% of the population but only 0.1% of the deaths. 

🇺🇦 A UA counter-offensive toward Izium is in full swing.

🇺🇦 Russia has exhausted all of its combat-ready battalions and is going through covert mobilization. Though they are mobilizing people with no training.

📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first

📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.

📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.

⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, Philip DeFranco, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course. 

⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly 

⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time. 

⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…

⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!