🇺🇦 Russia is blocking the shipment 22 million tons of crops, furthering the world food crisis.
🇺🇦 The U.S. is quietly urging Taiwan to follow Ukraine playbook for countering China. I’m a new student of Taiwan defenses, and
🇺🇦 Russian bots are flooding Russo-Ukraine-related social media with comments like “did you see the news in Ukraine? It’s really bad” and “It looks like Ukraine is in trouble”. That’s all, there’s no other messaging, and it’s not related to any actual news.
🇺🇦 Americans have not lost interest in the war, neither out of boredom nor distraction. Far from it. US public opinion seems fascinated with this war, and the most convincing evidence is that it changes if it thinks a war in not winnable.
🇺🇦 There are still people in Azovstal. Zelensky: “To date, all civilians -- those who were blocked at the plant -- have been taken away. The evacuation of other civilians who were near the plant or those who were in Mariupol has begun long ago. Civilians have been taken away, medics have been taken away, seriously wounded have been taken out, wounded have been taken away. At this moment, as we are talking, I know what is happening there. It seems to me that in the near future, not even in the coming days, I think the evacuation of everyone will be completed in the near future”
UPDATE: 🇺🇦 Russia Defense Ministry announced that it has finally taken Azovstal. To take this plant, Russia suffered a 7-to-1 death ratio. Many of the deaths came from pilots trying to deliver food/water/medical aid to the plant.
🇺🇦 Putin said he’s ordering an information protection systems in response to an increase in cyber attacks, as well as a ‘war of information against Russia’
🇺🇦 Putin claims cyber attacks have intensified and become more acute.
🇺🇦 China is cyber attacking scientists and engineers at Russian military research institutes in order to obtain critical data on Russia’s security. (This was discovered by an American-Israeli security firm)
🇺🇦 Yes, China is spying on Russia. This shows 1) the complexity of a relationship that was supposed to be defined by a post-western alliance 2) China’s increasing sophistication in an array of spying modalities.
🇺🇦 Note, China was never really a friend of Russia; it was a mutually beneficial economic relationship with no real philosophical agreements
🇺🇦 US will keep 100,000 troops in Europe. Prior it was 63,000. This will increase if Russia threatens NATO.
🇺🇦 US Dept of State is confident that Turkey’s issues with Sweden and Finland will be addressed. US said something about how Turkey is a long-valued member of NATO and blah blah blah wax poetic.
🇺🇦 US will deliver HIMARS missile system(s) to Ukraine. In its rocket configuration it has a range of 70km, which dramatically raises UA’s effective range
🇺🇦 Some Russian units are being issued Mosin-Nagant rifles. For the non-gun audience, this is a Russian WWII surplus weapon that is very heavy and is a literal antique
🇺🇦 Russian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture Severodonetsk and will likely continue to do so.
🇺🇦 Efforts on other axis, including Izyum, remain stalled.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are conducting operations to cut off Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk across the Severskyi Donetsk River.
🇺🇦 Information out of Mariupol will become increasingly restricted in the coming weeks as Russian forces shift focus from completing the capture of the Azovstal plant to consolidating occupational control of the city.
🇺🇦 Russian troops are likely reinforcing their grouping around Kharkiv City to prevent further Ukrainian advances toward the Russian border.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!