🇺🇦 Pictured: A ’Ukrainian’ Su-25, and a Russian Su-35 are pictured. Both are important to this update…
🇺🇦 Ukraine received 14x Su-25 attack aircraft from its Eastern European partners (delivered disassembled).
🇺🇦 Russia said giving Ukraine a multiple launch rocket system would cross a red line
🇺🇦 The Biden admin has approved sending multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine
🇺🇦 Russian forces began direct assaults on Severodonetsk despite not yet having fully encircled the town.
🇺🇦 Russian forces in Lyman are dividing their efforts, attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in Izyum and southeast to advance on Siversk;
🇺🇦 They will likely struggle to accomplish either of the above objectives.
🇺🇦 Russian forces in Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of Severodonestk rather than advancing west.
🇺🇦 Severodonestk is the area in eastern Ukraine still under Ukrainian control. This prevents Russia from taking/solidifying control of far eastern Ukraine. Severodonestk is sorta surrounded by Russia on the north, east, and south.
🇺🇦 Areas around Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either Russian or Ukrainian forces. The defense of Kharkiv has successfully forced Russia to move east and concentrate on taking a much smaller portion of eastern Ukraine (see above bullet)
🇺🇦 The above bullet point is bolstered by the fact that Russian soldiers around Kharkiv mostly refuse to fight
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces have crossed the Inhulets River in Kherson and are now threatening to cut off Russuan supplies by attacking Andriyivka, Lozove and Bilohirka.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the Kherson region into Russian economic and political structures.
🇺🇦 A Russian Su-35 was shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force. While individual unit wins aren’t usually noteworthy, this is significant because this is Moscow’s most advanced non-stealth jet, and on paper it should not have been shot down by a 1977 UA MiG-29.
🇺🇦 Specialists from the Ukrainian Air Force were able to recover critical and previously secret pieces from the above wreckage and notify western intelligence. US and UK intelligence is now decoding and mapping this technology. This is a huge blow to whatever remaining war-fighting advantages Russia had against the west.
🇺🇦 Unrelated to the specific example above, as Ukrainian forces take apart captured or destroyed Russian military equipment, they have found a strong reliance on foreign microchips - especially those made in the United States
🇺🇦 The Kremlin is skeptical that the west will continue its current massive financial and military support. They might be right. This is a problem because Russia has always believed it can beat the west at a contest of resolve. To this end, they will keep trying for Ukraine for years, or even decades. Any compromise will be a prelude to further military action.
🇺🇦 I read that Russia is considering another assault on Kyiv and planning victory for the Fall. I consider this low fidelity information as it is second hand sourcing.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!