Saturday, May 7
Russia's inverted demographics, CIA recruiting, long range artillery, and Azovstal
Saturday, May 7
🇺🇦(Pictured) flight tracks of intelligence-gathering planes from multiple countries in the vicinity of the Admiral Makarov. Someone knows something!
🇺🇦 After the Moksha sank, there was a ton of coded messages. That hasn’t happened for the Makarov
🇺🇦 Russia is spending $900 million per day in Ukraine. (This is based on equipment and supply use and losses, not entirely on new purchases)
🇺🇦 Fighting northeast of Kharkiv is almost to the Russian Border.
🇺🇦 Kharkiv is turning into a major moral booster for Ukraine, as defenders push Russia back past most artillery range, and right to the RU border.
🇺🇦 No significant changes in the southern axis.
🇺🇦 Intercepted calls reveal Russian troops are sabotaging their own vehicles. In one regiment, one Russian soldier said they’ve been pouring sand into the tanks’ fuel systems, and the solders commanders just sort of agree drunkenly. These are audio logs available to everyone. (Thanks Rob; also, verified with secondary sources)
🇺🇦 In fact, Russian soldiers are sharing tips on how to sabotage their own vehicles.
🇺🇦 The US is sending 25,000 155mm artillery rounds, counter-artillery radar, jamming equipment, and parts to repair equipment they has already been delivered.
🇺🇦 Putin’s $700 million, 459-foot super yacht Scheherazade, was seized yesterday in Italy. As a reminder, before the war, Putin was likely the richest person in the world.
🇺🇦 Ukraine may strike the Crimean bridge on May 9th. This bridge is essential for connecting Russia to Ukraine.
🇺🇦 CIA is actively recruiting Russians inside of Russia. They’re being very open about it, posting instructions on social media on how to contact the CIA on the dark web.
🇺🇦 The M982 Excalibur high precision artillery has arrived at the front lines and is destroying Russian stationary artillery positions near Izyum. This will accelerate and encourage counter-offensive action.
Azovstal in Mariupol:
🇺🇦 I saw videos of doctors in Azovstal begging for assistance. I read stories of how the wounded in Azovstal are dying from lack of antibiotics. I heard soldiers appealing directly to Zelensky to send help. With that information…
🇺🇦There are approximately 2,000 Russian troops left in Mariupol. The Pentagon has confirmed this. This is two battalion tactical groups.
🇺🇦 There is widespread civilian resistance in Mariupol.
🇺🇦Ukrainians are seeking to launch a counter offensive in Mariupol
🇺🇦 Despite a dire situation with the defenders, there haven’t been any confirmed RU advances in Azovstal
The looming age demographics crisis:
🇺🇦 There’s a strong possibility that Russia will try to fully mobilize for war. This will mean that many fighting-age men will be swept up in a draft. (Pictured) Men from the age of 20-24 are the smallest portion of the population (until you get to 65+). Drafting young men and sending them to die will absolutely wreck Russia for the next half century. As it is, there are no children to replace the soviet generation (30+). Removing even more of this age group will mean even fewer babies, which means an entire generation functionally gets skipped.
🇺🇦 More context: When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russians stopped having babies. This lasted about 15 years. About 10 years ago, as the last children of the Soviet Union came of age, Russians slowly started having more babies. However, now the few post-Soviet kids that were born are the ones coming into child-rearing age, and there aren’t enough of them. And now they might be drafted and sent into war.
🇺🇦 An estimated 7-800,000 motivated Russian soldiers are needed to win against Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Just checking to see if anyone actually reads all the way to the end of these
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, Philip DeFranco, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!
Yes. I read these every day. Thanks for the work you do to produce and distribute it.
Also Peter Ziehan has some interesting YouTube videos on the demographics of Russia (and the world), why Russia launched this attack, and the economic cost to Russia.
Slava Ukraine from Missouri, United States.
Yes, I (we) read to the bottom every day! Your summary is both the most concise, consistent, and interesting SITREP I get to read on a daily basis. I don't want to miss a word!