Saturday, November 12
The routing of the Russian retreat. Plus, Bansky’s latest mural is in a liberated Ukrainian town
🇺🇦 Renowned street artist Banksy has unveiled his latest artwork in the liberated Ukrainian town of Borodianka.
🇺🇦 Russian telegram channels saying Ukrainians are smashing the crossing points where thousands of Russians are retreating across the Dnipro. I am only going off of OSINT and not confirmed data. If this is true, then Russia is in the “find out” stage
🇺🇦 Zelensky: “It's not the enemy leaving. It's Ukrainians who drive the occupiers out at high cost….We should all remember now and always what this movement means, every step (forward has a cost), the lives of our warriors”
🇺🇦 Multiple OSINT sources are saying that the retreat is tunring into a rout. Crossing points are getting shelled.
🇺🇦 HIMARS are in full action during the Russian retreat.
🇺🇦 Things are chaotic at the Dnipro river right now and it’s difficult to get a clear picture of what’s happening. Boats aren’t enough, so huge crowds are apparently gathering waiting to cross
Edit: Old news: 🇺🇦 The Greyzone—investigative journalists—say that Ukrainian special forces have entered Kherson.
Edit: Old news: 🇺🇦 Russian sources verify that Ukrainian forces have entered Kherson
Edit: Old news: 🇺🇦 Russia may be planning a large-scale missile strike on Kherson once Ukrainian forces retake it
Edit: Old news: 🇺🇦 Kherson streets are empty. Everyone is indoors.
🇺🇦 There are a TON of videos of Ukrainian troops entering Kherson and people welcoming them as heroes. “I am moved to tears to witness freedom returning to Kherson, Ukrainians hugging their soldiers, and blue and yellow flags raised.”
🇺🇦 After all these videos came out, Russian channels are questioning whether Kherson residents actually supported the sham referendums like Russia claimed.
🇺🇦 It seems that Russia offered Kherson residents assistance to flee to the Russian-occupied side of the Dnipro…Russian messaging had suggested that 100,000 Ukrainians would want to come to Russia and that didn’t materialize.
🇺🇦 The flag of Ukraine has been raised in Myrolyubivka, Kyselivka, Snihurivka (Mykolayiv region), Pavlivka, Yevhenivka, Bobrovyi Kut, Tamaryne, Chkalove, Ishchenka, Starytsya, Kuchers’ke, P’yatykatky, Novokayiry and Mylove.
🇺🇦 US officials are divided over whether UA should pursue diplomacy. Gerneral Milley is urging diplomacy, and Biden advisors are resisting.
🇺🇦 George W. Bush will hold a virtual interview with Zelensky. The virtual interview as part of a series called The Struggle for Freedom, hosted by the George W. Bush Institute in partnership with Freedom House and the National Endowment for Democracy.
🇺🇦 Ukraine will open an embassy in the Philippines in an effort to strengthen ties with the country as well as the rest of Asia.
🇺🇦 Russian leadership is considering changing child labor laws to make up for the men that are dying in the war.
🇺🇦 The US stated it is not putting any pressure on Ukraine to negotiate with Russia
🇺🇦 2 trillion rubles per year was spent on megayachts that were supposed to go towards divisions of Armata tanks, strategic bombers, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of helicopters. Instead they ended up with paper maps, chinese radios and Mosin nagants. (Opinion: This institutionalized corruption is what led me to my opinion that there is a low likelihood that Russia has functioning nuclear weapons)
🇺🇦 Russia is appealing to South American nations to take on the West: "For centuries, the West oppressed our countries. There is no real freedom in the West. All the key posts and all the financial flows are prescribed in advance. Russia is spearheading a just world order and is prepared to become its moderator."
🇺🇦 Belarus is angry that Ukraine is strengthening its border with Belarus
🇺🇦 I wasn’t planning on an update tonight, but Olga K asked!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom