Saturday, October 1
Lyman under imminent collapse to UA forces. Putin declares parts of Ukraine are Russia. State Dept warns Americans to leave Russia
🇷🇺 In an angry, conspiratorial address Friday, amid grand fanfare, Putin declared that Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, were Russian territories. Key takeaways from Putin’s speech:
- Russia will never give up annex territory
- Ukraine must give up, saying Ukraine is responsible for hostilities
- The West is trying to destroy Russia—and likened the west to nazis. He accused the west of neocolonialism
- The United States poses an nuclear threat, not Russia
- ‘Anglo-Saxons’ sabotaged the Nord Stream pipeline
- Russia will never recognize LGBT rights. Yes, this was a key point of his annexation speech.
🇺🇦 US State Department: “U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or traveling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”
🇺🇦 The US Embassy in Moscow is urging Americans to leave Russia immediately, warning they could be drafted
🇺🇦 Both houses of U.S. Congress approve bill envisaging $12B in aid for Ukraine. This was bipartisan, with overwhelming support from both sides of the aisle.
🇺🇦 ...In its next package to Ukraine will be giving 18 HIMARS Systems, more than doubling the number of systems Ukraine has in service which is 16 HIMARS Ukraine will now have 34 HIMARS and at least 12 M270 Launchers
🇺🇦 Edward Snowden was granted Russian citizenship. This timing was due to Snowden’s notoriety and the fact that some Americans are still divided about whether he’s a freedom fighting hero or an evil traitor. If they can use him to divide America, or reduce American support for Ukraine, that’s what they’ll do. 70-something other foreignersreigners were also given citizenship
🇺🇦 Flights out of Moscow are seen costing $10,000+ were also given Russian citizenship.
🇺🇦 Russian men drafted into the 1st Tank Regiment were informed they will undergo no training whatsoever & will be dispatched to Kherson on September 29th to face off with the well-trained Ukrainian Army.
🇺🇦 Reuters reports interview from Russians, and they are willing to fight for their country if attacked, but have no interest in invading Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Multiple outlets reporting that troops are not receiving even one day of training.
🇺🇦 All Iranian suicide drones launched at Mykolaiv were destroyed (Time stamp: Tuesday, Sept 27, 9:44pm, UA time)
🇺🇦 Russians are calling the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense asking how to surrender. Note: in the past, Russia has used fake surrendering to perform successful intelligence operations
🇺🇦 Kazakhstan says it won’t hand over any Russians who’ve fled there, unless there are wanted notices for them. Draft dodging doesn’t carry criminal liability there, so people can’t be deported for conscription. Opinion: This is the smart way of doing it, unlike the countries flat out denying visas to people fleeing.
🇺🇦 Opinion and note to myself: If there was an oligarch who stole from the tritium supply that helps maintain Russia’s nuclear capability, it is Vlad1mir Lis1n. His companies supply he Russian defense industry, including for the production of nuclear weapons
🇺🇦 Russia declared that nearly 100% of the people of occupied areas voted to join Russia in sham referendums. Every single country that has been asked about it has rejected the results of the gun-point vote.
🇺🇦 Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he’s willing to negotiate a deal between Russia and Ukraine over the Nord Stream Pipeline
🇺🇦 Microsoft has blocked Russia from Windows updates, which makes them vulnerable to every newly discovered security hole
🇺🇦 Russia accused Ukraine of trying to disrupt Russia’s mobilization, and presented evidence to the UN. I mean…lol?
🇺🇦 Wali, the famous Canadian sniper, is back in Ukraine training soldiers how to be better snipers
🇺🇦 Robert, you were right, Russia won’t make another play for Kyiv this year
🇺🇦 The EU is announcing secondary sanctions that target individuals from their party countries that are helping Russia evade sanctions.
🇺🇦 Man..while thing this has come a long way since watching outgunned intrepid soldiers in basements playing violins.
🇺🇦 Wagner commander in Ukraine has been KIA
🇺🇦 A U.S. Army major doctor and their physician wife have been charged with a criminal plot to give confidential medical information related to members of the U.S. military and their spouses to the Russian government
ℹ️ Operations:
🇺🇦 The flag of Ukraine has been raised over Ridkodub in northernmost Donetsk region.
🇺🇦 The escape route for the Russian garrison in Drobysheve is likely cut off.
🇺🇦 The US declared that Ukraine can use western weapons in regions that Russia has annexed
🇺🇦 The first Russian conscripts drafted last week are arriving on the battlefield, and there are already stories of immediate surrender. As we suspected, there is no training and no equipment.
🇺🇦 A Russian collapse in the Lyman-Yampil sector is almost imminent now. Pictured: Russians fleeing Lyman
🇺🇦 The road out of Lyman is under Ukrainian fire control all the way to Kreminna. Update: all roads to Lyman seem to be under UA control. Medium confidence
🇺🇦 It sure looks like Russia will have to ask Ukraine for permission to withdraw their troops from Lyman
🇺🇦 It seems there is a projection that Ukraine will be able to focus on Crimea by late Spring 2023
ℹ️ China subplot
🇺🇦 China is looking for partners for its space program as its relation with Russia cools
ℹ️ Social media subplot
🇺🇦 Facebook shuts down covert influence campaigns it says were run from China and Russia - "Russian campaign was vast", pushed "pro-Kremlin narratives about the war in Ukraine”. What campaigns, you ask? Read on:
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom