Saturday, October 15
The Kherson offensive is underway; also: we know the exact number of missiles Russia has left
🇺🇦 (Pictured) The Kherson offensive is underway
🇺🇦 (pictured) Ukraine has revealed how many missiles Putin has left: Russia has 609 missiles left out of 1,844 missiles it had when it first invaded Ukraine. Reputable news reporting.
🇺🇦 The remaining missiles include 124 ground-launched missiles out of an initial 900 and 272 Kalibr missiles, which are launched by sea, out of an initial 500. There are also 213 air-launched cruise missiles still remaining from the 444 that Moscow initially had at the beginning of the war.
🇺🇦 It has been made public that western nations have a strong response prepared should Putin use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The response will be conventional, and it won’t be nuclear. However, the example response scenarios I’ve seen will obliterate Russian forces. For example, within the first few minutes, Russia’s entire Black Sea fleet would likely be sunk.
🇺🇦 Polls and public opinion research show that the west is in an uncompromising mood towards Russia, and has little-to-no appetite for concessions. “If Putin is counting on waning western resolve, this research suggests more bad news for his beleaguered military campaign.” This polling happened between 24 August and 22 September across 13 western or anglophone countries
🇺🇦 10,000 Ukraine soldiers have completed military training in the UK
🇺🇦 The EU announced they will train 15,000 Ukraine soldiers.
🇺🇦 Russia’s currency has not crashed because it’s controlled. If it were on the open market, it would crash to the earth in the first five minutes of trading — Eg, it has as much value as Schrute Bucks
🇺🇦 Russia can’t get parts from anywhere…America, Europe, and even China…because China wants no part of incurring the economic wrath of the west
🇺🇦 Moscow residents report mass delivery of subpoenas near metro stations. Eyewitnesses report that police officers are interviewing the men, collecting their information and handing out subpoenas. Some are taken to their cars. (Low fidelity information)
🇺🇦 Momentum is building in Congress in support of legislation to take on OPEC and Russia
🇺🇦 Russian investigative journalists claim that Russia’s irrecoverable casualties reach 90,000. “Irrecoverable casualties” means KIA, MIA, died in a hospital, or so injured that they are not currently in service.
🇺🇦 This is in line with U.K. Defense Minister Ben Wallace’s count of 80,000 in August
🇺🇦 Out of this number, Russia’s KIA is 63,000
🇺🇦 I usually avoid specific equipment kills, but Ukraine downed 4 Russian helicopters in 18 minutes between 8:40 a.m. an 8:58 a.m. on Oct. 12
🇺🇦 A Wagner mercenary and FSB officer are seeking asylum in France, stating they are ready to testify against Russian warcrimes
🇺🇦 Another mobilization problem: Russian conscripts are not being assigned tasks of their speciality
🇺🇦 An intercepted call showed that a Russian soldier is concerned that even Australia is supplying weapons to Ukraine…stating he didn’t think that Australia had any weapons
ℹ️ Kyiv population center attack sub
🇺🇦 On Monday, Russia fired heavily on Kyiv population centers.
🇺🇦 41 out of the 75 missiles where shot down by air defense
🇺🇦 Russia claimed this was a retaliatory strike for the Kerch bridge, but the reality is they had been planning it for a while.
🇺🇦 The US (and others) were already in the process of getting air defense systems to Ukraine…but it takes time since they’re not plug and play systems
🇺🇦 More than 50 countries have answered Ukraine’s call for air defense systems
ℹ️ Elon Musk subplot
🇺🇦 Elon Musk’s company announced it is pulling Starlink from Ukraine. Musk suggested that Starlink is doing this because Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, responded to Musk’s pro-Russian Ukraine peace plan with: “Fuck off is my very diplomatic reply to you @elonmusk.”
🇺🇦 Note: There are a lot of nuances to this whole StarLink subplot that I don’t have the energy to get into—
🇺🇦 Elon Musk retweeted a Russian propagandist (Eva Karene Bartlett) who worked for RT that says Ukraine has a secret kill list that includes children (…Bartlett then posted a link to a public URL for the “secret” Ukrainian kill list)
ℹ️ Kerch bridge subplot
🇺🇦 (pictured) The Kerch bridge appears to be more damaged than initially reported. The rail bridge is completely destroyed…it’s literally in the water. This means that Russian forces in Kherson haven’t been resupplied in a meaningful way for four days
🇺🇦 Russia claims they have arrested 8 people in connection to the Kerch bridge explosion, but the investigation seems to have gone way too quickly to be credible.
ℹ️Rant subplot:
⚠️ I take great care to stick to the facts and remain politically neutral. When one side does a good act, I have consistently also represented the other side. In the comments, adding facts that help color our understanding is great, and adding opinion is great. But seeing charged political commentary in the comments isn’t cool, especially since that’s where facts fall victim to philosophies. The full scale invasion of Ukraine has been the great unifier of all political parties, and this is a very rare thing. Don’t use the comments to try to divide us with politics; that’s Putin’s job. If McConnell does something that contributes to my SITREP, I report it as a fact. If Biden does something that contributes to my SITREP, I report it as a fact. Coming into the comments with disagreements by citing memes found in some weird Facebook group is something I don’t have the energy nor patience for
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
I love your substack. Please keep doing it