Saturday, October 8
The Crimea bridge held a referendum and decided it wants to be part of the ocean
🇺🇦 The Kerch bridge, connecting Russia with Crimea, has been struck.
🇺🇦 This was likely caused by a truck bomb, and Ukraine is definitely responsible.
🇺🇦 For those just joining us, the Kerch bridge is a crucial road and rail supply route war efforts in Kherson, and the a primary path from Russia to Ukraine.
🇺🇦 The damage to the bridge, which provided a road and rail connection between Russia and the Ukrainian peninsula that the Kremlin illegally annexed in 2014, is a setback to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, disrupting a crucial supply route and prompting new criticism, in public, about Putin’s handling of the war.
🇺🇦 In 2018, Putin personally inaugurated this bridge. It was a symbol of Russia’s ownership of Crimea.
🇺🇦 Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins.
🇺🇦 A former British army explosives expert says “this is a masterpiece of clandestine sabotage.”
🇺🇦 Russian repair crews have sent the first test train across the damaged section of the Crimean Bridge. A dozen passenger trains are scheduled to follow tonight, RU Transport Ministry officials say.
🇺🇦 Update: Since this happened, Russia has repaired the bridge enough for the the first passenger train to run through it.
ℹ️ What’s happening in Moscow subplot
🇺🇦 Reports that elite national guard troops are being deployed to Moscow.
🇺🇦 Update: The above seems to be corroborated. Multiple arrests, detainments and blockings of military are reported in Moscow. Units of Russian Guards Elite, Dzerzhynskyi division, entered the city. This is according to Chief Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Wagner affiliated telegram channels are claiming that both Shoigu and Gerasimov have resigned. I’m seeking verification
🇺🇦 Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR) reporting “measures” are being taken against the military in Moscow city center. Numerous arrests and detentions of the military by an elite Russian guard division.
🇺🇦 I’m hearing a lot of rumors and reports, but nothing firm yet. Developing story
ℹ️ Updates:
🇺🇦 Yesterday was Putin’s 70th birthday. He is a big fan of round significant numbers, and it’s been published that on his 70th birthday he had hoped to be leading a resurgent Russian empire. Instead, the Russian army is in retreat, his society has been embarrassed, and the entire west is uniting.
🇺🇦 …This is just like when I turned 10 and I asked my parents for a Stascream Transformers for my birthday, but instead they made me an international pariah with the looming threat of being murdered unceremoniously by my friends…which sucks, because I REALLY wanted that Starscream.
🇺🇦 Pictured: Not joking, Russia is literally a bigger supplier of heavy weapons to Ukraine than the west is. This is not a joke.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian Soldier: “We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them. We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”
🇺🇦 Putin is using enlistment to draft anyone who opposes him. This is according to Newsweek
🇺🇦 The U.S. is formulating responses to any potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia, according to U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.
🇺🇦 According to Kirby, there are no current signs that that the Kremlin is preparing a nuclear strike
🇺🇦 According to Kirby, in the event that Russia uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Washington's and its allies' response will be decisive.
🇺🇦 Reports of Putin moving a ‘nuclear train’ to Ukraine are likely overblown
🇺🇦 More than 2,000 Russian troops have contacted Ukraine’s “surrender hotline”
🇺🇦 The US is getting all sorts of data from this fight. Right now, the US is collecting data on the amount of ammunition production is needed to sustain a war with Russia.
🇺🇦 In some regions, RU is sending home its mobilized soldiers because there is no where to provide housing and no ability to feed them. This appears to be a temporary intention
🇺🇦 Wagner group and Russian soldiers are getting into fire fights. There is an ongoing, growing, and public rivalry between the groups. In the most recent friendly-fire incident, Wagner shot a lieutenant colonel dead. This was not an accident
🇺🇦 The car b0mbing that k1lled Darya Dugina was an assassination authorized by the Ukraine government. The US did not know about this before hand. New York Times reporting.
🇺🇦 BBC reports that as much as 75% of the Spetsnaz Brigade was KIA, MIA, or WIA during the battle of Lyman. These are considered the best of Russia’s special operations.
🇺🇦 On Sunday, two groups of demonstrators came together in London. One was waving Ukrainian flags; the other Iranian flags. When they met, they cheered each other and chanted, “All together we will win.”
ℹ️ Saudi subplot
🇺🇦 In a sharp rebuke to the west, Saudi and Russia met three days ago and agreed to cut oil. This is done to 1) raise prices and income for themselves at the expense of America and the west (Saudi’s primary goal) 2) damage America and western economies (Russia’s primary goal) 3) enable Russia to exert more control on the world stage (Russia’s primary goal)
🇺🇦 This move harms the United States and Europe’s attempts to choke off the enormous revenue that Moscow reaps from the sale of crude oil
🇺🇦 Without diving into nuances of world politics, it is well known that Saudi has a certain hostility towards America (I mean…9/11 and all that)
🇺🇦 The US military is currently defending the Saudis. The reason is because without our defense, Iran would destroy them immediately, and we depend on Saudi oil
🇺🇦 US Congressmen Tom Malinowski and Sean Casten are sponsoring a bill to withdraw US troops from defending
🇺🇦 Gas prices are already rising as a result of this move
🇺🇦 American oil production is artificially low, as American oil companies are not drilling as much as they as they can in order to keep prices and share prices lofty. There are 11,000+ oil permits going unused in America right now
ℹ️ Operations:
🇺🇦 Russian soldiers have been pushed back to the Dnipro river. The best strategic move is to pull back to the east bank of the Dnipro. This is open source info, everyone in the world has access to this strategy. However, they are not pulling back because Putin annexed the territory. Instead, they are sitting on the west side, and it’s pretty much a ‘turkey shoot’. NOTE: This data is two days old. I have not seen any updates on the Dnipro river since I wrote this two days ago.
🇺🇦 Holding Kherson is a major resource drain for Russia. Staying on the west bank prevents them from forming a cohesive defensive line.
🇺🇦 Dnipro SHOULD be a major problem for UA
🇺🇦 Dispatch from Kharkiv: “These Russians are not like the ones we were fighting before.” ….’The balance of power on the battlefield has changed decisively. Now, it is the Russians struggling to respond.’
🇺🇦 On the banks of the Oskil river, it is clear to Ukraine's poised troops that the enemy is short of ammunition and struggling to respond
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
"....in the event that Russia uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Washington's and its allies' response will be decisive. "
Don't beat around the bush with vague statements. The U.S. needs to let Putin AND THE PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY CONTROL the nukes that if they use a nuclear weapon, we will respond with nukes and totally destroy Russia. We will retaliate so hard that Mordor will look like a tropical paradise. Russians will be fleeing to North Korea and begging admittance.
Hack the communications networks and let the people who physically control the nukes know that we will bomb Moscow, Stalingrad, and other major Russian cities. Let them know that there is a line that they do not cross. Russia has shown that they do not respect civilians as being off limits. Make them understand that in the case of nukes we will not respect civilians either.
Also inform the piss-ant CIS nations that when the elephants fight, the mice get trampled.
(The paragraph about the Stascream Transformers is very funny.)
(Also I realize that I am an armchair warrior in the Midwest U.S. It's easy for me to talk about throwing nukes around. People closer to the front lines may have different opinions.)