Sunday, August 21
The Russian military attempted assaults on all fronts without yielding results. Also: A-10, Darya Dugina, and Zaporizhzhia
ℹ️ A-10 Thunderbolt ‘Warthog’ subplot (pictured)
🇺🇦 Ukrainian pilots are secretly being trained to fly A-10 warthogs
🇺🇦 Last month, a TIME reporter was allowed to visit a makeshift training center for Ukrainian pilots, on the condition the reporter be blindfolded. When they pulled it off, the pilots were learning to fly… the A-10.
🇺🇦 UA has a secret A-10 warthog training center, headed
🇺🇦 The video game-like nature of the facility was directly inspired by U.S. Air Force A-10 pilots of the 355th Training Squadron at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona who use the publicly available Digital Combat Simulator World (DCS) computer game to train in virtual reality.
🇺🇦 In July, UA officials said they don’t want A-10 warthogs, they want F-16s. The UA official cited the slow speed of the A-10 as the reasoning for this sentiment
🇺🇦 Also in July, the Secretary of the US Air Force did not reject the idea of giving Ukraine A-10 Warthogs
ℹ️ SITREP:
🇺🇦 Russia lost HALF of its warplane capacity n UA’s strike of the air base in Crimea. This comes from Reuters and US News reporting.
🇺🇦 Sorry, it’s not a “strike” it’s an “unknown explosion.” There is evidence this was caused by UA special forces, or kinetic effects that originated behind enemy lines.
🇺🇦 Context: On Aug. 9, a large explosion was reported at the Saky air base near Novofedorivka on the western shore of the Crimean peninsula
🇺🇦 I am *guessing* that Ukraine hasn’t destroyed the bridge into Crimea yet because they’re hoping Russians citizens (and forces) continue to flee on their own
🇺🇦 The US is planning to give Ukraine precision-guided Excalibur munitions. An individual close to the deliberations of the latest military aid package said M982 Excalibur munitions, capable of travelling up to 70 kilometers, will be sent to Ukraine "at some point in the future."
🇺🇦 Russian troops instruct Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant staff to take time off. A return date has. Not been specified. UA Intelligence thinks this was done to disconnect the power plant from the UA energy system.
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities continued coercive measures to force civilian cooperation with the occupation administrations.
🇺🇦 Russia lacks volunteers to set up new units. In one Russian region, the formation of a tank battalion has been put on hold after only 30 people signed contracts to serve in the battalion after two months.
🇺🇦 Russian proxies have forcibly conscripted 430 mine workers in Russian-occupied Dovzhansk.
ℹ️ Kherson:
🇺🇦 Russia is relocating Chechen units to the Kherson region, their task will be to prevent desertion among the Russian military. Recent history as well as past intercepted calls says this means shooting Russian soldiers who retreat
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian command post in Kherson Oblast.
🇺🇦 Additionally, Ukrainian forces destroyed two ammunition depots in the villages of Chornobayivka and Starytsya, both in the Kherson Oblast.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian Air Force bring down three Russian UAVs over Kherson Oblast within one hour
ℹ️ Operations:
🇺🇦 Russian military attempted assaults on all fronts without yielding results. This includes the Kharkiv Oblast, Kherson Oblast and Donbas.
🇺🇦 Meanwhile, Ukraine forces are precision-striking logistics behind Russia's front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts
Russia increased the number of cruise missile carriers in Black Sea. UA Command’s assumption is that Russia is preparing to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities on Aug. 24, which is Independence Day in Ukraine.
ℹ️ Alexander Dugin and Darya Dugina subplot:
🇺🇦 Darya Dugina’s Land Rover exploded yesterday while driving on the Mozhayskoye highway. She died at the scene.
🇺🇦 Background: Alexander Dugin is Putin’s ideological adviser. He is a ultranationalist and propagandist. His daughter is Darya Dugina. Darya Dugina is a top Nazi propagandist at the Dugin’s Nazi party. She called for genocide of the Ukrainians. Her telegram channel urged “to produce fakes vs Ukraine”, visited Azovstal recently, wrote a book about the Z-war. She was not “a daughter” like “an innocent collateral”.
🇺🇦 Mozhayskoye highway is inside the Moscow “beltway”
🇺🇦 This was an assassination
🇺🇦 The Ukraine government says they were not involved in killing of Dugin's daughter.
🇺🇦 Based on Ukraine’s methods of operation, preferred targets, and propaganda preferences, my opinion is that Ukraine was not involved in this, nor was this UA resistance efforts. My opinion is this is either Russian anti-Putin resistance or a Russian motivator attack. However I don’t know enough about the internal Russian socio-political environment to be able to make stronger opinions.
🇺🇦 The apparent target was Alexander Dugin himself, though this is speculation.
🇺🇦 Alexander Dugin last year: “What doesn’t kill me kills someone else.”
🇺🇦 Alexander Dugin: “Sooner or later, the endless spectacle is over. Then we will take revenge; mercilessly.” Whoops
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🐉 House of Dragon, who’s watching??
100,000 RU tourists leave Crimea. I guess this is now a "Special Counter-Tourism Operation" by the Ukraine.