🇺🇦 Pictured: The warning on Ukrainian cigarettes now says you should quit smoking so you live long enough to see how Putin dies.
🇺🇦 Pictured: “It’s HIMARS o’clock”. HIMARS are changing the shape of the battlefield. At least 11 new strikes at critical targets in the past 24 hours. Locations noted in the pictures.
🇺🇦 UA use of HIMARS is making “digging in” virtually impossible
🇺🇦 In case it had to be said, HIMARS are very accurate
🇺🇦 HIMARS have destroyed 20 Russian ammo depots.
🇺🇦 HIMARS systems are taking out the “near rear” of the Russian army
🇺🇦 After the Bucha Massacre, Russian soldier Viktor Bulatov wrote on social media “We need to arrange a Bucha in every [slur for Ukrainians] city from Kharkiv to Lviv”. Today, the authorities confirmed that he has been killed in battle
🇺🇦 Lukashenko is treading thin ice with the Belarusian people. Putin installed Lukashenko as the unpopular leader of Belarus, and the Belarusian people want nothing to do with invading Ukraine. The military wants absolutely nothing to do with invading Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Belarusian saboteurs (“special forces” in American language) have entered Ukraine and have been caught
🇺🇦 Iran, Russia and China intend to conduct exercises in Latin America as a show of their power to the United States.
🇺🇦 Russia bombed their own battalion which was withdrawing from the frontline of Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia.
🇺🇦 Zelensky has ordered Ukraine’s army to liberate the Ukrainian coast. Zelensky has ordered UA’s army equipped with western weapons to “retake occupied coastal areas”
🇺🇦 While the world says Russia is taking an operational pause, Zelensky says that this is not true, and Russia continues to attack. Reconciling: Russia is still attacking on multiple fronts, but their efforts in the east have mostly halted because all of their ammunition depots have been destroyed by HIMARS.
🇺🇦 As the Institute for the Study of War noted, an operational pause does not mean a complete cessation of hostilities, rather that ongoing hostilities are more preparative in nature.
🇺🇦 To that end, Russian forces are in the midst of a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine. This operational pause has been largely characterized by Russian troops regrouping to rest, refit, and reconstitute; heavy artillery fire in critical areas to set conditions for future ground advances; and limited probing attacks to identify Ukrainian weakness and structure appropriate tactical responses.
🇺🇦 One reader asked specifically about resistance efforts. As an example a car b0mb k1lled a collaborator named Yevgeny Yunakov in Kharkiv.
🇺🇦 Russia seems to be attacking Kharkiv, but not in a manner that would suggest they want to take it over, but in a way that is designed to make it impossible to rebuild
🇺🇦 Ukraine is using multiple seized Russian equipment to launch strikes against Russians.
🇺🇦 While researching the above bullet I saw a bunch of pictures of Ukrainians standing next to captured RU equipment. Like, nothing warms your heart quite like seeing a goofy-ass UA soldier cheesing in front of a Soviet-era BM-21 MLRS
🇺🇦 There is more evidence of tensions between the Russian military command and Russian war correspondents / “Russian influencer”
🇺🇦 Russian milblogger influencers seem to understand that Russia is silencing dissent in order to make their failures look like success. As a reminder, Putin’s primary offer to the Russian people is projecting strength
🇺🇦 Putin held a meeting on June 17 to defuse milblogger discontent, which had become evident and dramatic after the disastrous failed river crossing attempt at Bilohorivka in mid-May.
🇺🇦 Interestingly enough, a great deal of intelligence gathering comes from reading pro-Kremlin milblogger social media posts
🇺🇦 Ben, to answer your question, I did this entire update right after you left!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!