🇺🇦 Yesterday there just wasn’t enough news for a post—most of the headlines were opinions and conjecture.
🇺🇦 143 days into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Throwback: “The special military operation in Ukraine is going according to plan, in strict accordance with the schedule." - Vladimir Putin, March, 3, 2022
🇺🇦 Poland will acquire a bunch of HIMARS systems from the US. “A bunch” is the least journalistically-sound word, but the numbers that reporters are using are certainly off (500). I’ll seek more clarification.
🇺🇦 Russians now fear HIMARS strikes, and are now storing ammo on the battle field.
🇺🇦 If you’re serving, and you’re reading this, next time you see a logistics officer, thank them for what they do.
🇺🇦 Pictured: a Wagner Group recruiting ad. The middle soldier is carrying a washing machine
🇺🇦 RU forces are moving the train offload points out of HIMARS range. For RU forces, this adds 118km of logistics to Kherson, 165km to Mariupol, and 93km to Donetsk
🇺🇦 Russia will likely try to seize the entire Kharki Oblast despite a low chance of success.
🇺🇦 Russia continues to shell the Kharkiv Oblast, damaging residential buildings and infrastructure.
🇺🇦 The UK defense chief says that 50k Russian soldiers have been killed or injured. From what I know this is a gross underestimation. I understand that the number of KIA is 38K and the number of wounded/injured/MIA/AWOL is 100k+
🇺🇦 Zelensky fired UA’s prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, to be replaced by her deputy, Oleksiy Symonenko. This is due to the recent anti-corruption push that Zelensky/UA has adopted.
🇺🇦 Opinion: Zelensky was the absolute correct person to be in charge during this whole thing
🇺🇦 As of today, 651 criminal proceedings have been registered regarding high treason and collaborative activities of employees of prosecutors' offices, pre-trial investigative bodies, and other UA law enforcement agencies.
🇺🇦 Russia is funding international anti-Ukrainian demonstrations
🇺🇦 Russia is moving a “significant number” of ships from Crimea to Russia. I don’t know the motivation.
🇺🇦 Russia is also moving a significant amount of stolen goods from occupied areas back to Russia. I want to follow this thread, but my initial speculation is that they are preparing for a possible withdrawal, should UA offensives prove successful.
🇺🇦 Russian proxies in Donetsk Oblast captured another British citizen.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued a measured return from the operational pause but did not make any confirmed territorial gains
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued limited ground assaults around Siversk, Bakhmut, and Donetsk City and otherwise fired at civilian and military infrastructure throughout the Donbas.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin may be setting long-term conditions for force generation efforts in anticipation of protracted hostilities in Ukraine. Opinion: this reminds me about how North Korea is still officially at war with South Korea
🇺🇦 Russian occupation authorities are likely using the threat of partisan activities to justify harsher societal controls in occupied areas.
🇺🇦 Shoutout to Kyiv Independent for their awesome reporting!
🇺🇦 Pictured: Today, my wife asked me if it’s true that Russian soldiers committed a certain act of violence. I told her yes, and I described the time and location it happened. I then explained that this was part of Russian military doctrine, and that when these soldiers left, Putin awarded them with Russia’s highest military honors. I then told her that this type of thing is ongoing, and it’s happening a lot. She asked me if anyone is stopping it. I told her yes: I’m stopping it, and you are stopping it. When I say “you”, I mean the person reading this. You’re part of the solution. Your approval and support is why our government is doing something about this. And this is demonstrable. This isn’t my opinion. So long as you’re enraged about this, then America will keep doing something about it. And our allies will keep doing something about it. So thank you for all that you do. Thank you for reading.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!