🇺🇦 Apparently there’s a conflict between Russia’s industry, and military leadership. Russian factories and defense firms are refusing to repair military equipment damaged in Ukraine. I don’t know how wide spread this is.
🇺🇦 Russian forces in occupied areas of Ukraine have been systematically stealing grain and other produce from local farmers.
🇺🇦 Turkish customs authorities have detained a Russian-flagged vessel carrying grain.
🚩False flag alert:
🚩 25 missiles were fired at the Russian state of Belgorod, targeting airports and military supplies. Russia is saying 11 residential buildings were hit, and that Ukraine overtly targeted them. However, we are all hyper aware of Russian false flags and misinformation in order to bolster support and to get western UA allies from supporting UA.
🚩 *IF* this is true, then it means a broader escalation of targets for Ukrainians, and a significant break from Ukraine MO…they usually hit one very specific target in Russian soil, and they usually use special operations to do it.
🚩 There are discrepancies in Russia’s reports: the governor of Belgrod said they were hit with a Tochka U missile with cluster munitions. Meanwhile, the Kremlin says it was a UK / US GMLRS rocket fired from a US HIMARS system.
🚩 It would be super convenient for Russia if Ukraine suddenly decided to defy its western beneficiaries and go back on their guarantees by using western equipment to attack Russian residential buildings.
🚩 However, this type of attack is definitely in Russia’s MO: we know that Russians use cluster munitions, and there are (literally) thousands of examples of them targeting residential buildings.
🚩Finally, Ukraine is desperate for ammunition. They need every single bullet to go towards destroying Russia’s military, and they wouldn’t use munitions on targets that don’t contribute to this. Killing a small number of civilians in Russia serves no benefit to Ukraine’s war efforts.
❓What MIGHT have happened was Ukraine struck an airport with an ammo depot, and the resulting explosions destroyed local houses or apartments.
🇺🇦 All of that said, Russians have destroyed 15 million square meters of housing in Ukraine
🇺🇦 Ukrainian partisans (resistance fighters) reportedly derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol
🇺🇦 Also, apparently resistance fighters are stabbing an abnormal high number of Russians. Like…stabbing is their thing apparently.
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted extensive artillery attacks in the western part of the Southern Axis likely to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensives.
🇺🇦 "Russia has never done anything wrong to anyone, the world is turning against it out of pure hatred, envy and indignation" – Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, July 3, 2022.
🇺🇦 Shoutout to the apparently large plurality of my readers who are following/are familiar with the whole sub drama of the Russian Orthodox Church.
🇺🇦 Ukraine's drones are becoming increasingly ineffective as Russia ramps up its electronic warfare and air defenses.
🇺🇦 Specifically in the Donbas, Ukrainian forces are now limiting their use of drones because Russian troops are more easily thwarting them, and losing drones can be costly.
🇺🇦 Though Russian forces have secured the Luhansk Oblast border, pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychansk.
🇺🇦 129 days of fighting since the full scale invasion began on Feb 24. The Russo-Ukrainian war officially began in 2014
🇺🇦 Specifically, use of Bayraktar drones are being scaled back.
🇺🇦 The days of updates once every 48 hours is coming, so just be prepared!
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” or “what about Palestine?” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!