Sunday, July 31
HIMARS destroys a 40-car military train; Serbia stepping up tensions with Kosovo; and more on Olenivka
🇺🇦 I should have realized this sooner, but the POWs killed in the Olenivka in occupied Donetsk were the Azovstal defenders from Mariupol
🇺🇦 Also in this POW camp were Mariupol civilians were did not pass the “filtering” process
🇺🇦 OSINT analyst Oliver Alexander published an examination of satellite imagery from July 27 showing open graves at the Olenivka prison, noting that July 29 satellite imagery appears to show that the same graves have been covered. Investigative journalism group Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins stated that lower resolution satellite imagery indicates ground disturbances after July 18 and prior to July 21, suggesting that the Russians may have planned the incident in advance.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian special forces have already caught the person who tortured and mutilated the UA POW. (That update is for you, EP). Yesterday, the video was geolocated. If you don’t know this story, it’s probably for the best.
🇺🇦 Pictured: The Russian embassy in the UK tweeted that the POWs who were shelled deserved a humiliating death (Thanks Greg)
🇺🇦 A HIMARS strike destroyed a train of more than 40 cars that arrived from Crimea carrying troops, equipment and ammunition to Kherson region. 80 dead and 200 wounded RU soldiers.
🇺🇦 A Serbian MP says it seems Serbia will be forced to launch the denazification of the Balkans. (Good luck, all countries in the Balkans are part of NATO except Bosnia and Herzegovina)
🇺🇦 Serbia is moving its army to the borders of Kosovo, including combat aircraft. Serbia is on high alert.
🇺🇦 A Ukrainian MP said said if Serbia invades Kosovo, Ukraine is ready to defend the Kosovars with troops on the ground.
🇺🇦 Ukraine's foreign ministry said it is monitoring the situation on the Serbia-Kosovo border, urging Ukrainian citizens to avoid crowded places in the region.
🇺🇦 A Russian soldier in Kherson was filmed saying they’re fucked, and can’t retreat because Kadyrovites (separatist Chechens) are on the other side of Dnipro (river) ready to shoot them if they retreat.
🇺🇦 Kyiv found 1,348 civilians dead after Russia’s retreat
🇺🇦 I spent some time reading up on Russian manufacturing…apparently, soviet engineering accepts the fact that parts will break, and builds in redundancies to compensate. For example, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) found a number of bolts on their soviet craft had cracks in them. The soviets knew this would happen, and simply doubled the number of bolts to compensate. The bolts would be replaced at the same time regardless of their condition.
🇺🇦 Kyiv Independent reports that Ukraine destroyed 4 ammunition depots, but I can’t find secondary reporting on this.
🇺🇦 Latvia has suspended border crossings to neighboring Russian regions.
🇺🇦 Russia struke Odesa Oblast with 2 Iskander ballistic missiles.
🇺🇦 Russia moved troops from north of Donetsk Oblast to the south.
🇺🇦 Russian forces have resumed localized ground attacks northwest and southwest of Izyum and may be setting conditions for offensive operations further west into Kharkiv Oblast or toward Kharkiv City.
🇺🇦 Crimean occupation officials accused Ukraine of orchestrating a drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in occupied Sevastopol, but Ukrainian officials denied responsibility for the attack
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!