Sunday, May 29

Ukraine has twice forced Putin to define-down his military objectives. Now everything is focused on Severodonetsk

🇺🇦 First a correction. The picture yesterday was an Su-27, NOT an Su-25. UA received Su-25’s.

🇺🇦 Ukraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. 

🇺🇦 The invasion that aimed to seize and occupy the entire country has become a desperate and bloody offensive to capture a single city in the east, Severodonetsk, while defending important but limited gains in the south and east. 

🇺🇦 Russian forces are assaulting Severodonetsk even though they have not yet encircled it. 

🇺🇦 Russia is expending so much effort and manpower in taking Severodonetsk that whether they are successful in taking it or not, their operational and strategic levels will have culminated. Culmination means the point at which a military force is no longer able to perform its operations.

🇺🇦 The unspeakable suffering on Ukrainians and  horrible sacrifices of the Russian people is now all done to seize Severodonetsk…a city that does not having the benefit that merits the cost.

🇺🇦 Yes, Russia is having recent successes, but it comes at a huge price for their current tactical success that is out of proportion to any real operational or strategic benefit they can hope to receive.

🇺🇦 Opinion: This is what happens when a crime boss tries to play military.

🇺🇦 Speaking of crime, Russia is stealing metal from Mariupol. Russia is loading boats with Ukrainian metal. Because this is what criminal states do. And speaking of criminal states…

🇺🇦 This is an aside, but Russia has a mentality of exploiting their people and resources instead of developing or investing. For example, instead of developing their economy or land in their east, they rent out land for Chinese farmer to cultivate their own industry. It’s a quick way for oligarchs to make money off their country’s natural resources because they don’t have the foresight to develop their own economy  

🇺🇦 Back to Severodonetsk, the Russian assault on the Severodonetsk salient may have come at a cost to the wider campaign. It’s possible the Russians have left the Kherson sector relatively weakly defended

🇺🇦 Ukrainian army formations supported by American-made M-777 howitzers crossed the Inhulets River, 50 miles northeast of Kherson. The Russians fell back to a trio of towns a few miles to the southwest. 

🇺🇦 Forbes magazine suggests this signifies the beginning of Ukraine’s counter offensive in Southern Ukraine.

🇺🇦 With much of the Russian Black Sea Fleet rusting on the seabed, Odesa isn’t in any immediate danger of a seaborne attack, which reduces Ukraine’s areas of interest in their southern efforts.

🇺🇦 Yesterday I mentioned that RU would try for Kyiv again later this year. A military planner noted this is currently unlikely because there are no forces near Belarus. This is a fair point. To clarify, whether it’s this fall or ten years from now, RU has its eyes set on Ukraine, and they have a long history of believing resolve is what wins wars

📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO doesn’t seek to expand. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first. 

📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.

📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about America…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.

⚠️ Note: I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, Aaron Parnas, John Aravosis, Malcontent News, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course. 

⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly 

⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time. 

⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I’ve been spoiled by social media’s format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. That poses a problem because…

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