🇺🇦 May is traditionally a month for public celebration in Russia, with massive public processions on 1 May for Labour Day and military parades on 9 May for Victory Day. However, these celebrations have largely been cancelled. While the official reasons for cancelation are ‘safety fears,’ the larger motivations are likely 1) Putin does not want to highlight a lack of victory 2) The highly-popular ‘Immortal Regiment’, an event during which ordinary citizens all over Russia march with portraits of relatives who died in WWII, would likely turn into a massive anti-war march in which relatives would show portraits of the people lost in Ukraine
🇺🇦 Russia may be preparing provocations against its citizens on May 9th (Victory Day) in order to compel them to support the war
🇺🇦 HIMARS have become less effective due to Russian jamming. Russia is known for their electronic warfare/jamming capabilities
🇺🇦 Russian troops were reportedly infected with anthrax after unearthing a burial site for cattle while digging defensive trenches in southern Ukraine (thanks, JB). Two were taken to the hospital
🇺🇦 Anthrax is a bacterial infection that can be spread via infected animal carcasses and food. The disease was endemic across much of the Soviet Union in the 20th century because of intense cattle farming.
🇺🇦 I’m adding “don’t dig in cattle burial sites” to key takeaways, right next to “don’t eat radioactive fish”
🇺🇦 Putin wasn’t invited to King Charles’ coronation. Also not invited: heads of state from Belarus, Iran, Myanmar, Syria, Afghanistan, and Venezuela
🇺🇦 A Russian group 3 drone (>55lbs) was shot down over Kyiv with kinetic measures. It looked like a low collateral effect missile. The whole town seemed to erupt in applause when the drone was shot down.
🇺🇦 Ukraine shot down a Russian hypersonic weapon using a Patriot air defense system. I believe this was classified capability up until now. Can any of you DoD peeps confirm?
🇺🇦 The above hypersonic weapon was previously called “unstoppable” by Russia.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin appears to be setting up social media conditions for a loss (Thanks, Phil). The Kremlin is now frantically working to lower expectations—and rolling out a contingency plan to lessen the impact of defeat.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin distributed a manual to state media and other propagandists containing instructions to “Not underestimate Ukraine’s impending counter-offensive” and to “not spread the idea that Kyiv is somehow not ready for it”
🇺🇦 Basically, if the Ukrainian’s fail at their counter offensive, it will be possible to say ‘Russia skillfully fended off an attack that was superior in power’ making the victory that much more impressive.
🇺🇦 More importantly if Ukraine is successful in taking back territories, Putin hopes Russians will blame the U.S. and Europe, as Russia was ‘up against the entire West’
🇺🇦 Russian intelligence service arranged fake protests in Europe - inspired by Quran burnings - to provoke Erdogan.
🇺🇦 I’ve second-source verified the above. Ukrainian protesters hired by Russia is apparently trying to create the impression that neo-Nazis from Ukraine are stirring up Islamophobic sentiment in Western Europe with staged rallies.
🇺🇦 Russia's economy is suffering from industrial decline as satellites detect less pollution in the air
🇺🇦 There are a lot of fires in Russia right now, and some even in Moscow. However, when you see reports of fires, this isn’t usually war or sabotage related. Russia has poor fire safety regulation and stuff just catches on fire all the time
🇺🇦 Russia's military leadership appears to be increasingly delegating responsibilities for different sectors of the front in Ukraine to various Russian commanders while the power of the theater commander continues to wane, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update.
(Pictured) Ukrainian soldiers of the 80th brigade firing artillery in the direction of Bakhmut as the Russia-Ukraine war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on April 13, 2023.
ℹ️ Wagner subplot
🇺🇦 Wagner and Russia are in open conflict.
🇺🇦 Prigozhin threatened to leave Bakhmut, claiming that Russia cut off supplies of ammunition on May 1
🇺🇦 Prigozhin publicly released a scorching video in which he castigated top military leaders, specifically calling out Sergei Shoigu for being an oligarch.
🇺🇦 Standing next to dead Russian bodies, Prigozhin said: “They came here as volunteers and they are dying so you can get fat in your wood-panelled offices…These guys are from Wagner. They died today. Their blood is still fresh," he said, adding that army chiefs "will go to hell". "We have an ammunition shortage of 70 percent…"You sit in your (bleeped) expensive clubs... You think you are the masters of life and you have the right to decide on their lives," he said, pointing at the bodies. Also, add lots of explatives
🇺🇦 It appears that Wagner does not have a direct line of communication to the Russian Ministry of Defense
🇺🇦 Chechen leader Kadyrov accused Prigozhin of lying, demanded Wagner stay in Bakhmut, and denied him credit for past victories.
🇺🇦 ⚠️ May 7 UPDATE: it appears that Prigozhin will get the ammunition he requested, and has publicly reversed course on the withdrawal
ℹ️ Drones in Moscow
🇺🇦 On the morning of May 3 (US time zones), the Russia alleged that Ukraine tried to attack the Kremlin—specifically the presidential residence—with two UAVs.
🇺🇦 A video circulated showing a drone exploding over the Kremlin.
🇺🇦 The Kremlin said that they countered these drones with electronic warfare, but the explosion was definitely not electronic warfare.
🇺🇦 After a day, this really looks like a false flag. Ukraine didn’t ‘brag’ about it, someone was filming the scene, the drone’s approach was too low, which indicates 1) the operator was close by 2) not typical Ukrainian Kamikaze MO which flies at altitude until the last moment…
🇺🇦 Official channels are starting to also suggest this was a false flag attack
🇺🇦 If this is a false flag attack, then it was designed for the Moscow audience
🇺🇦 If this was a false flag, it seems to have already had an impact. There has been paranoia following the drone attacks on the Kremlin “There is a nervousness that I have never seen before,” said one official at the Moscow mayor’s office. “But Victory Day has to go ahead, there is no other option,” he added.
🇺🇦 Side note: Late in April, a Ukrainian official shared a video of a bird’s-eye video of buildings in Moscow’s Red Square. While definitely a drone video, the sourcing was never verified
ℹ️ Counter offensive subplot
🇺🇦 Ukraine expects the Russian command to panic when the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive begins, Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Havrylov told British newspaper The Independent in an article published on May 7.
🇺🇦 I saw one report that Ukraine is worried that the counter offensive won’t be as spectacular as the world hopes.
🇺🇦 There are reasons for optimism in a counter offensive, but it's not a prediction or the central case.
🇺🇦 Previously, Ukraine lured Russia's best units to Kherson, where they suffered considerable losses and were ground down.
🇺🇦 Russian general Valery Gerasimov has thrown Russia's best units against Ukraine in futile attacks in recent months.
🇺🇦 Most of the Russian lines are held by mobilized units, even the "good" ones, which are now comprised of replacements who are not as competent as pre-war troops (who weren’t all that competent to begin with, as we’ve found out).
🇺🇦 Russian equipment quality continues to decline as they dive deeper into ex-Sov stocks, with some newer equipment being produced but not enough to replace the destroyed equipment.
🇺🇦 The bullish case for for Ukraine depends on getting mobilized units to break and run, as there is precedent for Russians doing so in this war and others.
🇺🇦 Success by Ukraine will depend on dealing with minefields, attacking mobilized-staffed areas before they can be reinforced, and getting them to break and run.
🇺🇦 Overrunning trench systems filled with mobilized units would be a great start for Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Having at least two places where Ukraine is attacking, and many more where they feint, will cause Russia to hesitate or make poor decisions about where to commit its better troops.
🇺🇦 Shell shortages may be a problem for Russia, which could put them in trouble. We speculate that they have a shell shortage, but we will soon see
ℹ️ Nuclear subplot
🇺🇦 Kyiv Independent: “In the last three years, Russia has been seeking to keep American inspectors away. And the reason behind that is likely not Moscow's eagerness to bolster nuclear power but rather the opposite – hiding the scale of its nuclear arsenal’s reduction. The Russian nuclear stockpile has been gradually dwindling for years.”
🇺🇦 …I still assert that Russia is no longer a nuclear-capable country. The Federation of American Scientists disagrees, saying Russia has 1,674 strategic warheads ready for use. But as Kyiv Independent says, “Those are the numbers on paper”
🇺🇦 “Behind this opaqueness, the Kremlin can go on imitating parity with the U.S. or even claim nuclear buildup, increasing the risk of a new nuclear arms race. And it will likely continue using this lack of nuclear transparency for rendering pressure upon the West…But when it comes to more detailed information on the condition of warheads, as well as the quantity of intercontinental ballistic missiles, bombers, and submarines that carry them, there's a barely penetrable smokescreen”
🇺🇦 TIL: Thanks to years of arms reduction effort, the global amount of nuclear weapons dropped from 70,300 in 1986 to 12,500 in early 2023. That’s an 80% reduction in nuclear weapons
🇺🇦 In other nuclear news….Russian forces are evacuating civilians out of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast city of Enerhodar. The city is just a few kilometers away from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has been occupied by Russia since March 2022.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, sconsider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news