🇺🇦 Finland officially became the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on Tuesday, marking a major shift in the security landscape in northeastern Europe that adds some 1,300 kilometers (830 miles) to the alliance's frontier with Russia.
🇺🇦 The Russian winter offensive has failed in all sectors
🇺🇦 Ukraine has launched a counter attack in the Donbas
🇺🇦 A bombing occurred in St. Petersburg, Russia, which killed infamous Russian propagandist, Vladlen Tatarsky. The Russian “Republican Army” claimed credit for the attack.
🇺🇦 The Russian Ministry of Defense caught fire, but this appears to have been a minor fire and not a major fire nor a partisan attack
🇺🇦 Bill Clinton says he feels 'terrible' for pushing a 1994 agreement with Russia that resulted in Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons
🇺🇦 Russian soldiers appear to have stopped receiving salary
🇺🇦 Multiple sources: Russia appears to be bringing T-54s and T-55s out of storage for deployment in Ukraine.
🇺🇦 Russia has a severe ammunition shortage. Russia has been forced to issue old ammunition that was previously declared unfit for use, says UK intel, deepening its struggles in Ukraine
🇺🇦 Steven Seagal launched an Aikido center to train Russians for military service
🇺🇦 The US will deliver Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine earlier than originally expected due to the shortened training time of the Americans of the Ukrainian military
🇺🇦Mobilized soldiers from St. Petersburg who assaulted Avdiivka lost 70% of the personnel, lost all field command team. In a video plea to Russian Ministry of Defense, they said the battalion was given only one rifle
🇺🇦 9 countries pledge to transfer more than 150 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
🇺🇦 Customs data eveals direct shipments of Chinese assault rifles, as well as drone shipments and body armor routed to Russia via Turkey and the UAE. The CQ-A rifles are modeled off of the M16 but tagged as “civilian hunting rifles” in the data
🇺🇦 Gallup: Americans’ already-negative opinions of Russia have soured further in the past year, dropping from 15% holding a favorable view to 9%. The current reading for Russia is the lowest Gallup has measured since it first asked about the “Soviet Union” in this format in 1989
🇺🇦 Russia has built an extensive trench system on the coastline of Crimea, as though they are expecting a Normandy-style invasion
🇺🇦 A month later, Russia continues to fortify Crimea’s coastline.
🇺🇦 Russian forces withdraw military equipment from depot in northern Crimea.
🇺🇦 A regiment of drafted Russian soldiers who made video plea to Putin to stop them being 'slaughtered' are now mostly dead, report says
🇺🇦 More than 71,000 Russian war crimes have been recorded in Ukraine
🇺🇦 NSFL warning…According to Russian service members, Russian officers used Russian female medics in their own military as sex slaves and ‘field wives,’ and punished those who did not cooperate.
🇺🇦 NSFL warning…According to the same source, soldiers who didn't want to fight on the front lines were also punished. This included getting them naked and putting them in cold basements filled with rats. If this didn't work, the soldiers were made to dig and lie in their own graves, and were then covered in dirt. The leader of the unit would then “shoot at random around the grave.” "Goodbye to anyone he hit, and anyone who survived is already crawling out of this hole like a fool," she said.
ℹ️ Xi Jinping subplot
🇺🇦 It sure looks like Xi Jinping is laying the groundwork to annex part of Russian territory
🇺🇦 Cross-border economic activity in Siberia by Chinese communities, including Khabarovsk and Vladivostok tacitly revive historical Chinese claims to this resource, rich in highly strategic region
🇺🇦 Chinese and profiting Russian kleptocrats have been smuggling precious Siberian resources from Russia to China in a clear breach of Russian sovereignty
🇺🇦 Chinese leader Xi Jinping "reiterated his willingness to speak" with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on April 6, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after her talks with Xi.
ℹ️ Stale news because I didn’t update fast enough:
🇺🇦The International Criminal Court, based in The Hague, issued an arrest warrant for Putin. This is old news at this point
🇺🇦The ICC was established by the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which was adopted in 1998 and entered into force in 2002.
🇺🇦 Multiple countries have already stated they will hand Putin over to the ICC should Putin cross into their borders
🇺🇦 Poland will transfer 4 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, the Polish president said. They are the first NATO country to do so
🇺🇦 Politico: US senators from both parties pressing Pentagon to send F-16s to Ukraine
🇺🇦 Russian Su-24 supersonic tactical bomber shot down near Bakhmut
🇺🇦 On March 20, Russia’s air defense shot down it’s own fighter jet (Su-27 or Su-35) over occupied Donetsk
🇺🇦 A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday (3/14) after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to the US military.
🇺🇦 …The Reaper drone and two Russian Su-27 aircraft were flying over international waters over the Black Sea on Tuesday when one of the Russian jets intentionally flew in front of it and dumped fuel on the unmanned drone, then bumped the propeller, according to US European Command.
🇺🇦 Russia is attempting to recover it. It is 4-5,000 feet underwater. Update: Russia recovered components from he drone
🇺🇦 Russia plans on drafting 400,000 soldiers to fight against Ukraine
ℹ️ Epic tank battle, subplot (stale news)
🇺🇦 Russia loses 'epic' tank battle in Vuhledar, 130 vehicles destroyed, according to the New York Times article published on March 1
🇺🇦 A three-week fight in the town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine produced what Ukrainian officials say was the biggest tank battle of the war so far, and a stinging setback for the Russians.
🇺🇦 The article suggests that the lack of expertise, alongside the fact that most of the professional Russian military personnel had been demolished earlier, contributed to such a large-scale defeat.
🇺🇦 Vuhledar remains one of the most crucial targets for Russia in the eastern Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast.
🇺🇦 Vuhledar is the same city where the 155th brigade (of Bucha infamy) lost 5,000 troops
ℹ️ Bakhmut subplot
🇺🇦 Russia's offensive to capture Bakhmut will likely culminate whether its forces capture the city or not. The Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months, giving Ukraine a chance to seize the initiative. (ISW) April 6 Update: It’s been a month and the above is so far, true. Russia’s offensive has failed.
🇺🇦 Russian "major" offensives in the Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna directions in Luhansk Oblast are also failing to generate any significant successes on the frontlines. April 6 Update: It’s been a month and the above has come true. Russia’s offensive has failed.
🇺🇦 Russia does not appear to have the resources to fight more than one front
🇺🇦 Russia will likely culminate after Bakhmut, whether or not they succeed
🇺🇦 Ukraine is performing limited strategic withdrawals from Bakhmut
🇺🇦 Bakhmut does not pose any significant strategic benefit to Russia. UA defenses around Bakhmut further reduce the strategic signifiers
🇺🇦 (April) Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin: Ukrainian forces not retreating from Bakhmut, Russian offensive 'out of question.' ‘Ukrainian forces are not retreating from Bakhmut and a Russian offensive is not possible.’
ℹ️ Belarus subplot (stale news)
🇺🇦 Partisans in Belarus blew up a $330m Russian spy plane
🇺🇦 …The A-50 aircraft, which is used to identify and track targets for military operations, was rendered non-operational after local resistance members used drones to drop explosives on it
🇺🇦 This comes after Russia’s plans to take over Belarus were leaked, though the two events may not have a casual relationship
🇺🇦 Edit: I watched the video. They flew a drone across a Russian airfield, found this plane, landed the drone on the rotodome (that big circle above the plane that houses the radar) and blew it up
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom
🇺🇸 I hope people forgive me for posting some stale news
Great stuff. Pls keep writing!
Here here!