🇺🇦 Pictured: A war nerd joke
🇺🇦 Picture: Russian tourists in Crimea reacting to the Ukrainian counter offensive.
🇺🇦 8 blasts in Belarusian Zyabrovka airfield were reported, 40 km away from Ukrainian border. This Belarusian airfield is used by Russians as an airbase.
🇺🇦 Russian army shelled and mined Sumy Oblast 200 times on Aug. 10. No casualties have been reported.
🇺🇦 Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov published several photos of U.S. actor Steven Seagal, a long-time fan of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, inside the ruined prison building in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast.
🇺🇦 The Polish government is deporting Russian immigrants back to Russia. Opinion: I get the sentiment, but I wish this was more judicious. Many (most?) of those people left Russia for a reason, and are likely on the west’s side, or at least not pro-Russian.
🇺🇦 Czech Foreign Minister supports calls to stop issuing EU tourist visas to Russians. Opinion: see, that makes more sense!
🇺🇦 Russian surveillance aircraft entered Alaska’s air defense zone twice. Once on Aug 8, once on Aug 9
🇺🇦 Turkey and Kazakhstan signed an intelligence-sharing resolution yesterday, and Russian propagandists are losing their minds. They fear that the military data will go to America…which it probably will because Turkey is a NATO member
🇺🇦 Special forces subplot: it appears Ukrainian saboteurs and special forces were responsible for the destruction of the airbase. This is Washington Post reporting.
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian military repelled Russian attacks near Bakhmut, Maryinka, and Pisky in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine's General Staff said. Russian troops also failed to advance near the village of Pavlivka in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
🇺🇦 Russia created a new structure affiliated with the Russian special service, the main task of which is to ruin President Volodymyr Zelensky's image abroad
ℹ️ Mykolaiv subplot:
🇺🇦 On July 20, I wrote: “The governor of Mykolaiv announced local authorities are temporarily closing Mykolaiv to arrest Russian collaborators. Local authorities are currently processing data about alleged collaboration activities and will close the entire city for one or two days in order to carry out arrests.” I bring that up because…
🇺🇦 The city of Mykolaiv went into a 54-hour lockdown in which officers went door-to-door searching for collaborators that had helped Russian forces identify targets for daily missile attacks
🇺🇦 The lockdown ended on Monday
🇺🇦 During this lockdown, the city was sealed and residents couldn’t enter or leave.
🇺🇦 Five people were arrested and a number of weapons and communications equipment were seized.
🇺🇦 Mykolaiv has been received some of the heaviest and sustained barrages of Russian fire during the war.
ℹ️ Kherson subplot:
🇺🇦 Families of Russian officials are leaving Kherson.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is preparing for a full scale Kherson counter offensive
🇺🇦 Ukraine's military heavily damage Kakhovsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast. The bridge provides a supply route for the Russian forces. It's the second bridge that has recently been damaged by a Ukrainian attack in Kherson Oblast.
🇺🇦 Russia shelled the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant four times today.
ℹ️ Crimea subplot:
🇺🇦 The Russian airbase, Saky, in Novofedorivka, Crimea, was destroyed. Two dozen (all?) aircraft have been destroyed. Satellite imagery shows an obliterated base
🇺🇦 A state of emergency was declared in Russian-occupied Crimea following explosions at the Novofedorivka airbase.
🇺🇦 A traffic jam extended up to 100km as Russians exited Crimea. The traffic jam has lasted more than 24 hours
🇺🇦 Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. They have been using it as a vacation spot. There are a bunch of videos of these tourists fleeing Crimea. There was one video in which a woman cried that she lived there like it was her home. Stolen home, but whatever
ℹ️ Economic subplot:
🇺🇦 Annual inflation in Ukraine reached 22.2% in July.
🇺🇦 Ukraine's overseas creditors agree on 2-year freeze on almost $20 billion worth of debt.
🇺🇦 At the moment, Ukrainian reconstruction will cost $188 billion.
🇺🇦 Northern European countries agree to allocate 1.5 billion euros to support Ukraine.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!