Thursday, August 18
Russia appears to be preparing to stage an accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
🇺🇦 I didn’t plan to make an update tonight, but the big news that everyone should be alerted about, just in case:
ℹ️ Zaporizhzhia subplot:
🇺🇦 Russia seems to be preparing information context to blame Ukraine for a false flag attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
🇺🇦 Apparently Russia has told its nuclear workers stationed at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant NOT to go to work tomorrow. I’m seeking clarification on this
🇺🇦 Russia warns radioactive waste could hit Germany if accident occurs at damaged nuclear power plant.
🇺🇦 Pictured: Locations of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, for your reference
🇺🇦 Russian personnel have abused and coerced staff at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant. The US State Department has announced they are aware of this.
ℹ️ Regular updates:
🇺🇦 Pictured: Ukraine down new $50mil Russian fighter, an Su-30SM, Kharkiv region. Russia calls this a “Forth Plus generation” fighter.
🇺🇦 Russia uses 60,000 rounds of ammunition daily.
🇺🇦 Russian forces carry out approximately 700-800 shellings each day.
🇺🇦 The admin of the Telegram channel "Grey Zone", affiliated with the Wagner group, was killed in the HIMARS strike on the Wagner's HQ in Popasna. This guy was a real piece of work. In one post, he posed victoriously in a captured elementary school with the Wagner Group skull icon water mark overlapping cutouts that teachers made of children learning. As a parent, fuck this guy
🇺🇦 UA Parliament appointed Roman Maselko, well-known anti-corruption crusader, to the High Council of Justice. Good, they’re fixing their previous botched job. There was this big scandal a month ago when they appointed a straight up unworthy candidate. Everybody reading this should rejoice.
🇺🇦 (cont.) Ukraine had a corruption problem before, but this war seems to have caused a seismic shift in their core philosophies. This shift is one of the primary reasons the EU is considering accession. I hope Ukraine can carry this sentiment forward after the war.
🇺🇦 UA has not lost any US-supplied HIMARS
🇺🇦 The most reported news today is that Erdogan arrived in Lviv, and he announced that Turkey is on Ukraine’s side.
🇺🇦 There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine today, for the first time since July 6, 2022.
🇺🇦 Russian sources reported a series of unidentified and unconfirmed explosions across Crimea last night
🇺🇦 A Russian cargo ship full of stolen UA grain has arrived in Syria (Tartus port)
🇺🇦 Ukraine created an International Legion to fight Russia. This has been a complete disaster, full of abuse, commands to do suicide missions, and other leadership misconduct.
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted ground assaults south of Siversk and northeast and south of Bakhmut. These seem to have been unsuccessful.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continued conducting offensive operations north, west, and southwest of Donetsk City. These seem to have been unsuccessful.
🇺🇦 Russian forces conducted a ground assault on the Zaporizhia axis. This seems to have been unsuccessful.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian officials confirmed additional strikes on a Russian military base and warehouse in Kherson Oblast.
🇺🇦 Russian occupation officials continued preparations for the long-term integration of occupied territories of Ukraine into Russia.
🇺🇦 UK Defense Ministry says that the heavy attrition of Russian main battle tanks is due to Russia’s failure to properly fit explosive reactive armor. The ministry said that if used correctly, ERA degrades the effectiveness of incoming projectiles before they hit the tank. “This suggests that Russian forces have not rectified a culture of poor ERA use, which dates back to the First Chechen War in 1994,” the report reads. Yeah, also, their explosive reactive armor is made of egg crates.
🇺🇦 Estonia has banned Russian tourists
ℹ️ Russian-ammo-depot-on-fire update:
An ammunition depot is on fire in Russia's Belgorod Oblast.
Operational Command South reported that Ukrainian forces killed 73 Russian troops and destroyed three tanks, four rocket launchers, one radar station for S-300 missile systems, five armored and military vehicles, and an ammunition depot on Aug. 18.
Explosions at ammunition depot damage railway in occupied Crimea
ℹ️ Economics:
🇺🇦 Turkey to assist Ukraine in post-war reconstruction of infrastructure.
🇺🇦 Biden administration prepares $800 million in security aid.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!