Thursday, December 8
Deep strikes in Russian territory, Iran, my attempt to get winter jackets to Ukraine, and Mila Kunis
🇺🇦 Newsweek claims that Vladimir Putin is considering seeking refuge in Venezuela as an escape routes in the event Russia loses in Ukraine
🇺🇦 German thwarted a coup attempt and arrested 25 people through 130 raids and 3,000 law officers across the country. Prince Heinrich and the “Reichsbuerger” movement planned to storm the Bundestag (German parliament) and install its own government. Prince Heinrich has ties to Russia, and one Russian citizen was arrested. Heinrich had reached out to Russia, whom the group saw as its central contact for establishing its new order (though there’s no evidence this outreach was successful). There is no current evidence of Russia’s direct involvement…however, the language and motivations used are very typical to Russian M.O. for dividing citizens against each other and its government.
🇺🇦 Russia has stopped using its Iranian su1cide drones because they don't work in the cold. The drones are made with plastic and other material that can’t handle frost.
🇺🇦 On Dec 5, Ukraine’s air defense system shot down 60 out of 70 missiles that Russia fired.
🇺🇦 Russia has manufactured cruise missiles just months ago, despite sanctions. These missiles are being used today.
🇺🇦 Speaking at a defense forum late on Saturday, Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, indicated Putin was no longer as insulated from bad news about the conditions facing his invasion of Ukraine as he was earlier in the campaign. At the beginning of the war, Putin was insulated from bad news in the war, and in many cases, had no idea how poorly his army was performing.
🇺🇦 Putin stated “Our nuclear forces are in a more advanced state than any other country. But we're not going to brandish nuclear weapons around“. Opinion: there’s no need for him to describe the state of his nuclear forces, unless there was something questionable about them. I maintain the belief that Russia’s nuclear readiness is worse than their army’s, as they are expensive to maintain and nobody can tell if they are kept up to date, making them the perfect thing for oligarchs to skim.
🇺🇦 The Institute for the Study of War says that the threat of nuclear war is very low, but for very different reasons than I did. They suggest it’s because the international community put a “red line” on nuclear escalation. The five NATO carrier groups in Europe are evidence of this.
🇺🇦 NATO says that Russia is trying to pause the operational tempo until the spring for a renewed offensive.
🇺🇦 The US House passed a record $858 billion defense budget, which includes an additional $275 million in military aid to Ukraine. The Kremlin called the defense budget “confrontational”
🇺🇦 De-mining liberated areas is going to be a big problem for years to come. Zelensky posthumously awarded four police officers who were killed while demining liberated areas of Kherson Oblast on Dec. 7.
🇺🇦 Russia freed WNBA star Brittney Griner in exchange for the arms dealer who inspired Lord of War. Don’t talk about this in the comments
🇺🇦 The High Anti-Corruption Court of Ukraine has issued an arrest warrant for Kyrylo Shevchenko, a former chairman of the central bank.
🇺🇦 Ukraine isn’t interested in peace talks. (That’s the summery of like, 20 headlines)
🇺🇦 27 years ago, almost to the date, Ukraine, the US, the UK and Russia signed the Budapester Memorandum. Ukraine gave up its massive nuclear arsenal, and later her strategic bombers, in exchange for security guarantees. Today Russia launched about 100 missiles at Ukraine, using these very bombers. (Dec 5, 1994)
ℹ️ Engels-2 strike subplot
🇺🇦 On December 5 there were reports of multiple explosions of an airbase deep inside Russia. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for it. The airbase, called Engels-2, is a strategic bomber airbase, is about 280 miles from the Russo-Ukraine border and 430 miles from the front line
🇺🇦 On Dec 3, I wrote that satellite images show an unusual amount of movement at a Russian airbase which may indicate that an airstrike is imminent. The above explosions happened at that airbase
🇺🇦 This is the deepest strike inside Russian territory since the beginning of the war.
🇺🇦 The cause is still unknown. This is outside of HIMARS range. Correlated, UA said in October that they were developing a drone that had a 600-1000km range. Update: Everyone says this was a drone. Like, everyone.
🇺🇦 Pictured: The likely culprit was an ex-Soviet Tu-141 drone, which was modified for modern use.
🇺🇦 Update: Now an additional air base, Dyagilevo, has been hit. 6 to 8 Tu-95 long range bombers are out of commission. Additional planes and equipment are damaged.
🇺🇦 Dyagilevo is a strategic nuclear base.
🇺🇦 Russian propagandists are publicly panicking over the success of the Ukrainian military. "They are laughing. Really, can you imagine the decibel level of laughter at U.S. headquarters? One can hit Russia's strategic nuclear forces with cheap drones.”
🇺🇦 Update: a third airbase was struck on Dec 6. Kursk airport, which was closed two civilian aviation. Once the invasion started, is 65 miles from the Ukrainian border.
🇺🇦 Ukraine has yet to claim responsibility from any of the strikes however, on Monday, they hinted that their weapons were capable of reaching this far. Like the other attacks is not been established which weapons were used however, there is near universal agreement that drones are responsible
🇺🇦 Update: Three powerful explosions occurred at the air base in occupied Berdyansk, followed by 15 more smaller explosions, according to Victoria Galitsina, the Chairman of the City Military Administration of Berdyansk. The attack has been credited to Ukrainian special forces.
ℹ️ Mila Kunis is a national treasure subplot:
🇺🇦 Ukrainian native Mila Kunis has raised $37 million for her Ukrainian Refuge Relief effort.
ℹ️ Walterhimself subplot:
🇺🇦 Since Russia has bombed large swaths of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, millions of Ukrainians are freezing. I contacted the North Face factory in South East Asia and asked for bulk pricing for unbranded jackets. They told me I could buy a jacket for $14 each. My plan was to make a bulk order, possibly solicit donations for an even larger order, and get pallets of jackets shipped directly to Somerset Aid For Ukraine in Kharkiv for distribution. I hit a snag when the export controls prevent this particular factory from exporting. Other companies that don’t have this restriction cost a lot more…like $26 per jacket. That ended up being prohibitive; even if I solicit donations it wouldn’t be enough to get a bulk order. I’m still working this, but wanted to let you know that I’m at least trying.
ℹ️ Iran subplot
🇮🇷 Iran is locked into ‘vicious cycle’ over protests and arming Russia. “The more Iran represses, the more there will be sanctions; the more there are sanctions, the more Iran feels isolated,” Rob Malley, the US special envoy on Iran, told a conference in Rome. “The more isolated they feel, the more they turn to Russia; the more they turn to Russia, the more sanctions there will be”
🇮🇷 Also in Iran, there is massive anti-regime strikes and demonstrations nation-wide. I can’t predict the future, but I would not be surprised if there was a full-out revolution in Iran in the coming months. For those that haven’t been following, this entire thing started when a woman was killed for not wearing a headdress
🇮🇷 The Iranian regime executed a protester on December 8 for the first time since the Mahsa Amini protests began. The Judiciary announced the execution of 23-year-old Mohsen Shekari after convicting him of “waging war against God.” Security forces arrested Shekari for blocking a road and attacking a security officer with a machete during protests in Tehran in September 2022.
🇮🇷 The sister of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a public letter on December 7 urging security personnel to defect in support of anti-regime protesters.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom