🇺🇦 After shelling and launching missile strikes on Ukraine on Christmas and New Years, Putin announced he wants to unilaterally declare a ceasefire for Jan 7, which is the day Russia celebrates Christmas.
🇺🇦 …to which Kyiv stated “HIMARS has a working day on January 7”
🇺🇦 The above exchange has two possible motives: Putin wants to visit his troops on Orthodox Christmas, Jan 7, and ISW says it’s a campaign to damage Ukraine’s reputation
🇺🇦 Opinion: Turns out it’s hard to invade another sovereign country and then ask for a truce within their borders
🇺🇦 The Biden admin officially announced that the US will supply Ukraine with Bradley fighting vehicles:
🇺🇦 Lindsey Graham said on twitter: “The goal for 2023 is to give the Ukrainians the weapons they need to militarily defeat the Russian invaders. This requires heavy modern tanks.”
🇺🇦 Germany will provide Ukraine with Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicle
🇺🇦 …and those things are already on the way. Today, Bradley's, M88's, LMTV's, Humvees, and HIMARS were spotted on train in Poland. “Bradleys in Wrocław? Russia you are f*cked”
⚠️Correction: The Bradleys spotted on the train in Poland during the last update may have been incorrect open source intelligence. The Bradleys spotted on the trains may be part of rotational brigades. I will correct when I get all of the details
🇺🇦 (It will take several months of training to field these 50 Bradleys)
🇺🇦The Pentagon is considering training Ukrainian soldiers on the Patriot missile defense system in the US.
🇺🇦 Parts made by 13 US companies found in Iranian drone downed in Ukraine. The remaining parts were made by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment. This is largely a non-issue, as the US companies didn’t provide material support but rather, were procured by Iran evading export controls. The US is investigating
🇺🇦 ‘Hundreds’ killed as Ukrainian HIMARS flatten Russian barracks on New Year’s Eve attack in Makiivka. This could be Moscow’s largest single loss of life since the start of the war as 600+ may have been killed at once
🇺🇦 After the strike, Russian milbloggers are attacking the Russian military’s endemic problems. ISW says: "The Russian milblogger response to the Russian MoD deflection of blame onto individual servicemen accurately identifies the endemic unwillingness or inability of the Russian military apparatus to address systemic failures.”
🇺🇦 Russian oligarchs believe Putin tricked them into appearing to support the war in Ukraine, and got them all sanctioned. This is very credible reporting.
🇺🇦 Many of Putin's top advisors didn't know the full extent of his plans to invade Ukraine on February 24 until they were already underway
🇺🇦 "If everyone around you is telling you for 22 years that you are a super-genius, then you will start to believe that this is who you are," Oleg Tinkov, a former Russian banking mogul who turned on Putin this year, told The Times. "Russian businesspeople, Russian officials, the Russian people — they saw a czar in him. He just went nuts."
🇺🇦 I was going to do an update when Russia reached 100k deaths, but then it blew past that. Russia has lost 110k troops and that’s just an unimaginable number
🇺🇦 On paper, the Russian army still has more artillery and rocket-launchers than the Ukrainian army has. However, in practice, poorly trained and undisciplined Russian gunners following rigid, outdated doctrine are wasting Russia’s artillery advantage. They fire a lot of shells and rockets and do not hit anything.
ℹ️ Economy subplot
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s GDP fell by 30.4% in 2022. “This is objectively the worst result since independence (in 1991), but better than most experts predicted at the beginning of (Russia’s) full-scale invasion, when estimates ranged from 40-50% and more,” the ministry said.
🇺🇦 Russian banks purportedly don’t have enough money for withdrawals and pension payments, resulting in a run on the banks. Russia is allegedly nationalizing banks and converting deposits into war bonds
🇺🇦 Russia’s stocks have fallen 35% over the current year, and will likely fall 44% by the end of the year, which is the worst in the world.
ℹ️ Recent operations:
🇺🇦 Wagner Financier, Yevgeny Prigozhin claims that prisoners who worked with the Wagner Group in Ukraine have been pardoned, likely to increase his own power, boost recruitment, and comfort Wagner Group criminals.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are fighting to regain control of certain areas and claim that Ukrainian forces are also attacking in some places.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces reportedly made a counterattack as Russian forces tried to advance near Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City.
🇺🇦 Russian forces are operating sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the Dnipro River and strengthening their positions in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.
🇺🇦 Russian bloggers may have exaggerated Russian victories in Zaporizhia Oblast while downplaying a slow Russian offensive near Bakhmut.
🇺🇦 Drafted Russian servicemembers continue to represent an outsized portion of Russian military casualtiess.
ℹ️ 'The Bakhmut Meat Grinder' subplot:
🇺🇦 December 10: Bakhmut was the most dangerous place in the world. There is no electricity or running water. This is the location of one of the fiercest sustained fighting in the war.
🇺🇦 December 18: Ukrainians on the front line started to refer to the enemy as “meat waves”, as hundreds of Russian recruits are dropped off on the front line, all of them are KIA, and the next day the same thing happens. This alleged account is backed up by the UA Armed Forces official numbers, which shows an increase in hundreds of RU deaths per day.
🇺🇦 December 25: Russian Offensive at Bakhmut runs out of steam. Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days. Russian milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut area have managed to slightly slow down the pace of the Russian advance around Bakhmut and its surrounding settlements, with one claiming that Ukrainian forces pushed back elements of the Wagner Group to positions they held days ago.
🇺🇦 December 27: The Russian offensive against Bakhmut culmenated
🇺🇦 January 1: Losses of Russian assault groups in Bakhmut are 80%, the wounded are left to die.
🇺🇦 United States believes that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's close ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is the head of Kremlin-backed mercenary Wagner Group, has invested his troops in the fight for Bakhmut because of an interest in the salt and gypsum from mines near the city, Reuters reported, citing a White House official.
ℹ️ Russian fleet loses two more flagships subplot
🇺🇦 The heavy nuclear cruiser Admiral Nakhimov and heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov are both inoperable
🇺🇦 The Admiral Nakhimov of the Southern Fleet will not be put into operation on time due to problems with equipment, including the navigation system and nuclear reactor
🇺🇦 The radiation protection system on the Admiral Nakhimov is faulty due to outdated, corroded graphite rods
🇺🇦 The Admiral Kuznetsov cannot move on its own and is at risk of capsizing or sinking during towing due to deep corrosion and water in the holds
🇺🇦 The repair process for both ships has been postponed indefinitely
ℹ️ Belarus subplot
🇺🇦 In December, Russia started a build up of forces within Belarus.
🇺🇦 The White House stated the United States is monitoring Russian troop buildups in Belarus
🇺🇦 On Dec 19, Putin visited Belarus, raising fears that he would drag Belarus into the war.
🇺🇦 On Dec 19, there was increased talk of Belarus invading Ukraine, surrounding Putin’s visit. Talk of invasion seemed to peak around this time; nothing has come of it yet.
🇺🇦 On Dec 29, a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile landed in Belarus and the Kremlin said it was “extremely concerned”
🇺🇦 Some signs were seen in Belarus calling for all male citizens from 18 to 60 years old must come to an enlistment office or village executive committee to clarify their data.
🇺🇦 Although Belarusian authorities announced that there were no plans for mobilization, the process of military eligibility check-ups in the country began in October 2022. This entailed Belarusian men being summoned to military registration and enlistment offices via letters or phone calls.
ℹ️ Kevin McCarthy subplot
🇺🇦 I hesitate to bring this up because it’s so politically oriented, so please forgive me, but it’s related to the overarching context of US military support for Ukraine.
🇺🇦 As we know, Kevin McCarthy is having trouble getting enough votes to become speaker of the House. The overwhelming majority of republicans are voting for him, with about 20 consistently voting against him.
🇺🇦 One of the concessions that the 20 republicans are demanding is that the Defense budget gets cut by $75 billion for helping Ukraine.
🇺🇦 As we entered the third day of no speaker, McCarthy began making concessions. McCarthy’s proposal would cap discretionary spending at 2022 levels, which would lower the Defense Department budget by $75 billion, as well as $75 billion in cuts to national security.
🇺🇦 The plan is likely to spur backlash from defense hawks in Congress
🇺🇦 It’s not clear how this will play out, or if he’ll stick to his proposals (they are non-binding). The important takeaway is that there is a small element of representatives that are against funding Ukraine, and this will likely come up in the future.
🇺🇦 Again, sorry for the politics; let it be known that a super majority of republicans (and democrats) support giving Ukraine aid.
ℹ️ Elon Musk subplot
🇺🇦 Elon Musk was photographed at the World Cup final with a sanctioned Russian state TV propagandist, Nailya Asker-Zade
🇺🇦 Nailya Asker-Zade is one Russia's most infamous propagandists with connections to Putin banker Andrey Kostin
🇺🇦 Nailya Asker-Zade has been sanctioned by the UK and Canada during the ongoing Ukraine war.
🇺🇦 Musk was also seen Sunday Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudis (who financed Musk’s twitter purchase).
🇺🇦 Unrelated to Ukraine, Musk was also seen at this meeting with Jared Kushner, leading to speculation that Kushner might take over as twitter CEO after the Saudis told Musk he needed to find a new CEO.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it’s a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called “guilt by association.” Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say “What about this thing America did…” in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called “Competitive victimhood” and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that’s the third.
📢 Putin’s anti-west words of the season are “colonialists” and “neocolonialists”. If you see this in social media, it is likely influenced by Russian campaigns
⚠️ I have stopped daily posts (although I constantly regret it). I compile a lot of this over time, so some of the bullet points may be several days stale
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can’t source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You’re the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer’s time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird “ua” symbol instead of a flag emoji!
🇷🇺 I hope Russians rebel and achieve peace, self-government, and freedom